|By Matein Khalid| This was the ghastliest week for global risk assets since September 2011. Not even 290,000 new US jobs in December could negate the raw fear on Wall Street generated by the 10% fall in Shanghai, a yuan depreciation, market meltdowns of 6 – 7% in Tokyo, Hong Kong, Frankfurt, Mumbai and New York. Four months ago, I had published a KT article titled “History’s […]
|By Arabian Post Staff| Heightening speculation about an impending change in Saudi Arabia’s currency policy has forced the kingdom’s monetary authorities to issue a clarification to the effect that no changes were being contemplated in Saudi riyal’s 30-year old dollar peg. It is the second time in the past four months that Saudi Arabia is pledging allegiance to the dollar after bets for a devaluation seemed to […]
|By Arabian Post Staff| Gold seems to be re-discovering its safe haven status in the wake of a turmoil that billionaire investor George Soros describes as the beginning of a global market crisis. Bullion rallied above $1,100 an ounce, rising for a fourth day to a two-month high, after Chinese shares plunged, the yuan slid and the country’s stock exchanges closed early for the second time this […]
Saudi Arabia’s currency peg is no longer sustainable amid a slump in oil prices that threatens to further crimp government financing, according to Commerzbank AG. The cost of buying 12-month dollar-riyal forwards has risen almost 1 percent since early December to about 3.83 per dollar, Commerzbank said in a report on Tuesday. Upward pressure on the forwards will probably increase over the “coming weeks and months,” it said. Saudi […]
India’s rupee fell the most since November on speculation demand for riskier assets will be hurt as tensions in the Middle East intensify and poor Chinese economic data adds to concern over global growth. Emerging-market stocks and currencies dropped Monday as manufacturing in China weakened for a fifth straight month, the longest such streak since 2009. Saudi Arabia cut ties with Iran and expelled the Islamic Republic’s diplomats, […]
|By Matein Khalid| Emerging markets were an entirely predictable horror story once again in 2015. The oil/mining bust, currency meltdowns, China’s hard landing, sovereign credit downgrades, banking system crises, corruption scandals and geopolitical crises from Ukraine to Syria, the Black Sea to the South China Sea devastated investor wealth in emerging markets. India’s Sensex and Nifty were down 9% while the rupee has depreciated to 66 […]
|Arabian Post Special|The UAE Central Bank is solidly backing the UAE banks in dealing with the ‘de-risking’ policies imposed by US banks on the UAE banks. The central bank is seized of the problems faced by the UAE banks in this regard. The new U.S. regulations have imposed extra burdens and costs on banks in the United States, which is forcing these banks to cut their international […]
|By Matein Khalid| In retrospect, the last six years were a unique period in global central banking, an epic monetary experiment that averted a Great Depression after Lehman’s failure and interbank/credit contagion plunged the world into recession in 2008-9. Yet the Fed (and later Bank of Japan, ECB and even PBOC) quantitative easing also led to asset bubbles, credit market excesses, currency wars and the mispricing of […]
Crude slid to the lowest level in more than six years in New York as a rising number of oil rigs in the U.S. signaled the supply glut will be prolonged. Futures dropped as much as 1.9 percent after Baker Hughes Inc. reported that the number of active oil rigs in the U.S. climbed by 17 this week to 541. U.S. crude stockpiles surged to 490.7 million […]
CHINESE SLOWDOWN HAS TO BE MONITORED
By Anjan Roy
At long last the US Federal Reserve – America’s central bank—has raised the interest rates, albeit hardly. This is the first hike in interest rates by the US central bank in over a decade.
The US Fed rate hike has been by a very small margin – from zero to just about 0.25% to 0.5%. It was so gradual and soft that the rate hike did not cause the disruptions in the global financial markets that everyone expected from such a decision.
The first question here is how will it affect India? It should not, and this has been borne out by what happened in the day after the Fed rate hike. The stock market remained more or less flat. The exchange rate also remained stable. The fund managers did not immediately think of taking money out of India and that left the financial markets unruffled.
But then w
|By Matein Khalid| The plunge in crude oil after OPEC’s Vienna conclave, Dr. Draghi’s failure to resist Bundesbank pressure not to fire another ECB easy money bazooka, Wall Street’s junk bond debacle and an imminent rise in the Fed Funds rate for the first time since 2006 will all shape the next big trades in Planet Forex. The Euro has risen to 1.10 on Draghi’s failure to […]
Leading memory chipmaker Micron Technology Inc. is going all in on Inotera Memories, snapping up the remaining shares of the company it doesn’t already own. The sale price: about $3.2 billion. Micron already owned 33 percent of Inotera, which it acquired from Qimonda in 2008. Inotera, which provides DRAM foundary services based on 30nm process technology, produces about 120,000 wafer starts every month for Micron. “The acquisition […]
|Arabian Post Special| The relentless plunge in oil price, which analysts are likening to the crash of 1990s, and its serious implications on spending plans are putting the focus back on the Gulf currencies’ dollar peg, including that of the UAE dirham. Despite consistent backing for the dollar peg from all possible channels, including the monetary authorities, the debate is back with a bang. And the market […]
OPEC has seemingly dropped any attempt at trying to fulfill its founding mission and manage the global oil market. For Saudi Arabia’s Ali al-Naimi, the most powerful and longest-serving of the group’s oil ministers, it may have seemed like history was repeating itself. There are several striking parallels between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ current situation and the period from 1997 to 1999, when the group lost […]
|Arabian Post Special|If oil prices fall further from the current levels, it would lead to a quick buildup of pressure on the Saudi riyal’s 30-year peg to the dollar, forcing the Saudi authorities to de-peg and devalue the currency, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch said in a report. “And frankly, it is a lot easier politically at first to deliver a modest crude oil supply cut than to […]
|By Matein Khalid| I was in a pensive-philosophic mood last week as I decompressed from a trip to a hauntingly beautiful post Soviet country in the Caucasus, the land that produced Koba from Gori and Prince Pyotr Bagration, the fallen hero of Tsar Alexander’s imperial guard at Borodino. Yet Georgia gave me time and perspective to think about the financial firestorms on Wall Street, Marounuchi, the Gulf […]
|By Matein Khalid| Saudi Arabia has fascinated me since I first met Hani AZ Yamani as a teenage student all those years ago at Wharton. Hani’s father was Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani, legendary Saudi Oil Minister (1962-86) under Kings Faisal, Khalid and Fahd. Sheikh Yamani managed the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks, survived a terrorist assault in Vienna by Carlos the Jackal, midwifed the birth of Saudi […]
|By TAP Staff| Union National Bank reported third-quarter profit that missed analyst estimates as impairment charges rose and fee and trading income declined. Net income fell 12 percent to 480.6 million dirhams ($131 million), the Abu Dhabi-based bank said in a statement to the stock exchange on Sunday. Impairment charges jumped 57 percent to 199.8 million dirhams. Fee and commission income dropped 16 percent and the lender […]
Janet Yellen may have unwittingly helped the Indian dollar-loan market rebound from a three-year low. Less than a week after the Federal Reserve Chair delayed raising U.S. interest rates, billionaire Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries Ltd. hired 16 banks for a $1.5 billion loan and Rural Electrification Corp. also approached lenders. That takes the pipeline of local dollar-denominated loans planned, mandated or in syndication to more than $5 […]
A senior French economic and political delegation is in Tehran to lay the groundwork for the first business contracts between France and Iran since an accord to curb its nuclear programme in July. France’s main business lobby group, the Medef, is sending a delegation comprising more than 100 firms to Iran, including companies such as oil major Total, planemaker Airbus and car manufacturer Peugeot. “We’re trying to […]
QATAR. On Sept. 18, 2015, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services affirmed its ‘AA’ long-term and ‘A-1+’ short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on the State of Qatar. The outlook is stable. We also affirmed the ‘AA’ long-term issue ratings on the bonds issued by Qatari Diar Finance Q.S.C. and SoQ Sukuk A Q.S.C. RATIONALE Qatar is a wealthy economy; we estimate its GDP per capita […]
The United Arab Emirates has no plans to abandon the currency’s peg to the dollar, central bank Governor Mubarak Rashed Al Mansoori said. “The dirham peg to the US dollar has served the UAE well over time,” Al Mansoori said in an e-mailed answer to Bloomberg News questions. The central bank “maintains a firm commitment to the peg.” Investors have increased bets that the six Gulf Cooperation […]
|By Matein Khalid| The world’s emerging markets have been savaged by multiple economic, banking, currency and political shocks since 2011. Global emerging markets are far too diverse and nuanced to be analyzed as a single asset class but now trade at a 24% valuation discount to developed markets. The financial markets now price draconian scenarios for earnings, exports, sovereign credit, industrial production and economic growth. The shortage […]
LEBANON. On Sept. 11, 2015, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services revised its outlook on the Republic of Lebanon to negative from stable. At the same time, we affirmed our ‘B-/B’ long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings. RATIONALE The outlook revision stems from our view that political uncertainty in Lebanon and regional tensions will continue to weigh on economic growth in the mediumterm. In […]
