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|By Arabian Post Staff|The IMF has stressed that the external downside risks to the UAE’s outlook have risen and encouraged the authorities to continue their efforts to bolster economic growth and safeguard macro-financial stability. In this context, the Fund stressed the importance of increasing supervisory vigilance and strengthening management of contingent liabilities from borrowing by government-related enterprises, government guarantees, and public-private partnerships. The IMF advice came in […]

|By Matein Khalid| Dropbox, founded by MIT students, venture financed by Sequoia Capital, is one of the world’s most valuable software startups. Even the Irish legend Bono of UB40 is an early stage investor. Its March 2018 IPO was a blowout. Dropbox broke syndicate at 21 and closed at up 50% on its first day. The shares peaked at 43 in June, but as Sophocles observed two […]

|By Matein Khalid| I had recommended buying the British pound at 1.2700 against the US dollar in successive columns in the past two weeks. Sterling is at 1.3200 as I write, the trade is already hugely profitable. Cable has now closed above its crucial 200 day moving average in a clear trend reversal. As markets dismiss the risk of a no deal Brexit, I believe the pound […]

|By S. K. Basu| Since time immemorial Afghanistan has been a flashpoint of human history in Asia. From the days of the reign of the erstwhile Persian Empire till the time of invasion by Alexander, Afghanistan has continued to see bloody battles that stretched into the Colonial Era and the period the Great Games between British and Russian Empires, World Wars, the infamous Russian occupation to the […]

Ole Hansen With turmoil on every side, gold has re-emerged as a preferred safe haven with further upside. Meanwhile, prospects for a further recovery in oil seem limited by signs of slowing global growth. The direction of commodities in the early part of 2019 will continue to be influenced by decisions taken in Washington and by central banks last year. The economic fallout from US president Donald […]

|By Matein Khalid|If Asia is a growth warrant on the global economy, the omens look awful as the IMF just warned the financial glitterati at Davos. Asian equities were the victims of the grim macro investment themes in 2018. Four Federal Reserve interest rate hikes forced Asian central banks to raise borrowing costs to protect embattled local currencies. The Trump White House’s game of chicken on trade […]

|By Matein Khalid| The epic political dramas of last week (Aunty Theresa’s Brexit plan was rejected by the House of Commons but she managed to survive a no-confidence vote by a narrow margin) strengthened the British pound, exactly as I had expected. Yet sterling has not managed to rise above 1.30 to the US dollar in the past two months and now trades at its lowest levels […]

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|By Arabian Post Staff|Oversupply concerns in the Dubai real estate market are increasing ahead of demand resulting in further downward pressure on both prices and rentals, JLL said in its review of 2018. The residential market in Dubai remains tenant friendly, allowing existing tenants to renegotiate their rents and providing attractive rentals and sales opportunities for new entrants to the market, it said. Traditionally, the majority of […]

I have gone gaga on software shares since 2013, when Satya Nadella redefined Microsoft – and tripled the valuation of the Evil Empire of Redmond in the next five years. True, Microsoft was the best Big Tech performer of 2018, an annus horribilis for the best and brightest of Silicon Valley. The world’s most exciting software shares were slammed by the bearish bloodbath on NASDAQ. However, when […]

By James M. Dorsey As far as Gulf leaders are concerned, President Donald J. Trump demonstrated with his announced US troop withdrawals from Syria and Afghanistan that his insistence that the “world is a dangerous place” has never been truer. The troop withdrawals coupled with Mr. Trump’s praising of Saudi Arabia’s alleged willingness to foot the reconstruction bill in Syria, moves that emphasized his lack of geopolitical interest in […]

|By Arabian Post Staff|The Brent crude oil price has fallen to a post-October 2017 low, while WTI now trades at August 2017 levels, according to UBS Energy Review. Economic growth concerns, along with systematic selling – momentum trading and the clearing of futures positions ahead of the end of the year – are robably fueling this latest price decline. That the OPEC+ production cuts only come into […]

|By Matein Khalid| I confess, I fell in love with South Africa’s Cape Town, though not its Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). 2018 has been an annus horribilis for both the rand and South African equities, with 30% losses for a US dollar investor, the fifth worse in the emerging markets. The euphoria after President Cyril Ramaphosa replaced Jacob Zuma early this year did not last as South Africa […]

|By James M. Dorsey| A series of Gulf and Middle East-related developments suggest that resolving some of the Middle East’s most debilitating and devastating crises while ensuring that efforts to pressure Iran do not perpetuate the mayhem may be easier said than done. They also suggest that the same is true for keeping US and Saudi interests aligned. Optimists garner hope from the fact that the US Senate may […]

|By Arabian Post Staff| The Arab Strategy Forum has issued a report that estimates the total cost of Iran’s nuclear programme to have exceeded US$500 billion since 2002.Furthermore, the costs of developing and operating infrastructure and facilities for the programme have added some US$50 billion to the bill. Specifically, the report states that the construction of the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant accounted for the majority of the nuclear […]

|By Matein Khalid| OPEC”s ministerial meeting on December 6 will have a seismic impact on the outlook for global oil markets. OPEC has been unnerved by a 30% fall in crude oil prices in the past two months on expectations of lower oil demand due to a Chinese economic slowdown, spectacular growth in US shale oil supply, King Dollar’s chilling impact on the commodities complex and long […]

|By Saifur Rehman|A 37 percent jump in fuel price has reduced the half-yearly net income of Emirates Group by 53 percent to $296 million in the first half of 2018-19 year, a company statement said. The high fuel cost as well as currency devaluations in India, Brazil, Angola and Iran, wiped out approximately Dh4.6 billion from the group’s profits.  Emirates Group, which operates the world’s largest international […]

|By Matein Khalid| The post Lehman decade was defined by the Federal Reserve’s “lender of the last resort” strategy to stabilize the global banking system. The American central bank expanded its balance sheet from $900 billion to $4.5 trillion. This led to a collapse in money market rates, Treasury bond yields and asset market volatility. Bull markets are born in panic and die in a frenzy of […]

|By Matein Khalid| 2018 has been a difficult year for GCC and Dubai real estate. Rents and capital values continued to fall in the third quarter, albeit at different rates in specific segments and micro-markets. The Federal Reserve’s latest monetary tightening at the September 26 FOMC means the six months Emirates Interbank Offered Rate (EIBOR), the bellwether rate for floating rate home mortgages in the UAE is […]

|By Arabian Post Staff| Banks in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) should continue to breathe a little easier in the year ahead. Barring any major increase in geopolitical risk or a sharp fall in oil prices, 2019 should mark a stabilization of GCC banks’ financial profiles, following three years of significant pressure, Standaard & Poor’s said in its latest review. What’s more, with the transition to IFRS […]

|Arabian Post Staff|Dubai continues to generate strong demand for premium office space according to new data released by global real estate consultancy firm CBRE. Total office stock in the emirate stood at 9.21 million sqm of gross leasable area (GLA) in the first half of 2018. This represents a 14% rise from levels recorded during the same period in 2014. Recent completions in the market further highlight […]

|By Arabian Post Staff| Emirates is looking at taking over Abu Dhabi’s Etihad airline, Bloomberg reported quoting people familiar with the matter. If the plan materialises, it would create the world’s biggest carrier by passenger traffic. Bloomberg said the talks, which are at a preliminary stage, would see Emirates acquire the main airline business of Abu Dhabi’s Etihad, which would keep its maintenance arm. Both airlines initially declined […]

|By Arabian Post Staff| In an unusual move, Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund,which is a stake holder in Elon Musk’s Tesla, has invested $1 billion in rival Silicon Valley start-up Lucid Motors. This means the Saudis will benefit, irrespective of which new generation car company achieves leadership in this automobile sector. Lucid  is set to start making its first model, the Air sedan, in 2020. The comapny […]

By James M. Dorsey Financial injections by Qatar and possibly China may resolve Turkey’s immediate economic crisis, aggravated by a politics-driven trade war with the United States, but are unlikely to resolve the country’s structural problems, fuelled by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s counterintuitive interest rate theories. The latest crisis in Turkey’s boom-bust economy raises questions about a development model in which countries like China and Turkey witness moves towards […]

|By Arabian Post Staff| GCC sovereign debt issuance is expected to reach US$53 billion in 2018, surpassing last year’s US$49.5 billion, according to Fisch Asset Management, a Zurich-based asset manager. “GCC sovereign debt issuance has had another strong first half, with the two multi-tranche sovereign bond transactions of Saudi Arabia and Qatar leading issuance of over US$30 billion in the hard currency market,” Fisch Asset Management said […]

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