|By Matein Khalid| Six data points last week reinforce my conviction that the GCC’s property/credit market stress will only accelerate in 2016. One, Standard and Poors downgraded Saudi Arabia’s sovereign credit rating to A- while Bahrain and Oman are now both below investment grade. The new sovereign credit downgrade cycle in the GCC comes at a time when sukuk/debt new issuance volumes have plummeted by 50%, the […]
|By Arabian Post Staff| The need to part-finance funding gaps by the GCC countries through sovereign US dollar debt will complicate their efforts to refinance the bonds and loans maturing this year and the next, HSBC warned in a report on the GCC finances. Some $94 billion in foreign currency denominated bonds and syndicated loans by GCC countries are maturing this year or the next year, which […]
|By K Raveendran| A clear assessment of the impact of the introduction of value added tax (VAT) in the UAE is not available yet, but it is fairly clear that it will have serious adverse results for the retail industry, which is already suffering a dip in demand. Minister of State for Financial Affairs Obaid Humaid Al Tayer announced the other day after a joint press conference […]
|By Arabian Post Staff|The announcement by Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman about a possible floatation of state-owned oil firm Aramco is part of a larger game plan, a report by a US private intelligence corporation has concluded. “Whether or not the IPO happens is not important. What is vitally important is that it was publicly discussed by the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia. He was […]
|By Matein Khalid| The sultanate of Oman has enjoyed phenomenal economic development success in the 45 year reign of His Majesty Sultan Qaboos bin Said. Modern Oman is one of the true social, political and economic success stories of the Arab world. However, the Achilles heel of the Omani economy is its huge dependence on oil and gas export earnings, 60% of the sultanate’s GDP. Standard and […]
/By Arabian Post Staff/ Despite the recent price bounce in oil, turmoil in the sector may be far from over, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a report. Defaults are rising across smaller oil and gas producers and risks are rising for larger ones too, it said. Total energy debt in default has now reached $18 billion, suggesting the credit cycle will mark a floor on […]
/By Arabian Post Staff/ Standard & Poor’s has re-affirmed its view that Saudi riyal peg to the dollar, a subject currently topping market debate, is unlikely to be changed over the next few years. The rating agency’s rationale is that at a time of already significant change and regional geopolitical instability, politically conservative regimes such as those in the GCC are unlikely to increase uncertainty about their […]
|By Matein Khalid| The global credit cycle has an immediate impact on the UAE via oil prices, the US dollar peg, cross border bank credit flows, Federal Reserve monetary policy and world trade. The IMF has cut its 2016 growth forecast to 2.6%, the lowest since 2010. A leading developer just booked a 20 fold rise in penalties from walkaway offplan home buyers. Banks hire “loan rangers” […]
|By Arabian Post Staff| Stability in office rents in Dubai’s main markets persisted throughout Q1 2016 as a result of continued high demand from both international and domestic occupiers, according to leading real estate consultancy Cluttons. Showcasing the performance of 22 submarkets across the city in the first quarter of the year with the use of heat maps, Cluttons’ first office market bulletin highlights that, 13 submarkets […]
HSBC Holdings cut its price estimates for Dubai developer Emaar Properties and peers including Damac Properties Dubai Co., predicting falling revenue and declining property prices in the United Arab Emirates. Emaar’s price estimate was slashed 26 percent to 8.5 dirhams, while Damac’s is 8 percent lower at 3.4 dirhams, HSBC said in a note on Thursday. The bank also lowered its target for Aldar Properties to 3.5 […]
Crude oil surged the most in seven years, rebounding from the lowest in more than a decade as equities rallied. Volatility jumped. Futures rose 12 percent in New York and 11 percent in London. U.S. stocks halted a five-day slide that dragged global equities into a bear market. Producers are ready to work together and won’t make cuts unless there’s complete cooperation, United Arab Emirates Oil Minister Suhail […]
The yearlong decline in global equities that started with a selloff in energy became a full-blown bear market Thursday as a rout in bank shares extended losses in the broadest worldwide gauge past 20 percent. The MSCI All-Country World Index slipped 1.3 percent, pushing its decline since May to 20 percent and marking the biggest retreat from risk since Europe’s sovereign debt crisis in 2011. Every industry […]
A prolonged period of low crude oil prices could have an offsetting effect on gold prices, analysts with Bank of America Merrill Lynch said Tuesday. “Historically, there has been a strong correlation between current account balances of Middle Eastern countries and prices of the yellow metal,” BofA Merrill Lynch metals strategist Michael Widmer said in a report that analyzed the effects of $25-$50/b oil prices through 2020. […]
The main developer of one of Dubai’s most outlandish real estate projects, the Falcon City of Wonders, says the long-delayed project will gain new life this year with around $2 billion in new developments. The falcon-shaped project has seen only about a tenth of the 5,500 planned homes built since its launch in 2005 and although billed to include outsized replicas of The Pyramids and the Taj […]
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is no believer in gold’s rally, predicting losses over the coming year as the Federal Reserve increases U.S. interest rates no fewer than three times. Futures dropped. “Our economics team forecasts that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points three times this calendar year, to 1.3 percent,” analysts including Jeffrey Currie and Max Layton wrote in a report received on Tuesday, […]
Gold and its miners’ stocks are rocketing higher as speculators and investors alike return to this left-for-dead sector. This sudden deluge of capital inflows has crowned gold stocks the best-performing sector of this young new year by far, shocking traders. And this stunning reversal of fortunes in both the metal and the companies producing it is only starting, so it’s exceedingly important to understand what’s going on. […]
Markets are currently in a well-oiled “death spiral,” according to Citigroup Inc. analysts led by Jonathan Stubbs. “It appears that four inter-linked phenomena are driving a negative feedback loop in the global economy and across financial markets,” the analysts write, citing the resilient U.S. dollar, lower commodities prices, weaker trade and capital flows, and declining emerging market growth. “It seems reasonable to assume that another year of extreme moves in […]
UAE. The start of 2016 signalled another loss of growth momentum at UAE non-oil private sector firms, with business conditions improving at the weakest rate since March 2012. Underpinning the slowdown was a relatively subdued rise in new work, which was linked in turn to a near-stagnation in new export business. Growth rates for output and employment also eased, though stocks of pre-production items increased more quickly. […]
UAE. In an article published today, titled “Qatari Banks’ Profitability To Wane In 2016,” Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services says that it anticipates tightening liquidity, slackening credit growth, and weakening profitability for Qatar’s banks in 2016. Although the drop in hydrocarbon prices and the Qatari government’s streamlining of its public investment program are putting the brakes on the domestic economy, banks’ asset quality held generally steady while […]
On the seventh floor of a Doha tower block, in a room filled with display cases containing old coins, clocks and Koranic manuscripts, 82-year-old Hussain Alfardan sits fingering a pearl necklace he says is worth $2 million. “These pearls are yakka, the highest grade of natural pearl – each piece is rare. Today the pearl is the number one stone in the world. The most expensive stone, […]
Israeli investigators on Wednesday near the body of a Palestinian who was killed after he and two others attacked border police officers in East Jerusalem. By ISABEL KERSHNER February 3, 2016 JERUSALEM — Three Palestinian men armed with automatic rifles, knives and pipe bombs attacked Israeli border police officers in East Jerusalem on Wednesday, killing one officer and wounding another. The three assailants were fatally shot by officers at […]
CRM giant Salesforce is adding some lightning to its customer success platform. The latest iteration of Salesforce Lightning aims to raise the bar on customer relationship management by with a platform that taps cloud, mobile, social, IoT (Internet of Things) technologies and data science. Salesforce launched Lightning in 2015 as a multi-tenant, next-generation metadata platform that enterprise workers can use on any device. It quickly gained traction, […]
|By Matein Khalid| “One country, two systems”. This was the historic formula under which Margaret Thatcher agreed to hand over the British Crown Colony of Hong Kong to the People’s Republic of China, then ruled by Paramount Leader Deng Xiao Ping. The Hong Kong dollar’s spike to 7.81, on the high end of its 7.75 – 7.85 band, demonstrates the sheer scale of the speculative attack against […]
Oil bulls distressed that last week’s rally fizzled can find some comfort in forecasts for a bigger and longer rebound by the end of the year. Analysts are projecting prices will climb more than $15 by the end of 2016. New York crude will reach $46 a barrel during the fourth quarter, while Brent in London will trade at $48 in the same period, the median of […]
