The Japanese currency traded around 155.7 per dollar after a volatile session, having surged sharply earlier in the week as investors increased bets that the Bank of Japan could tighten policy faster than previously anticipated. The move brought the yen close to levels last seen after joint US-Japan currency intervention in July.
US nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, well above the 56,000 gain economists had expected, while the unemployment rate held at 4.1 per cent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. June and July payroll figures were also revised higher by a combined 55,000 jobs.
Employment gains were concentrated in food services and drinking places, which added 62,000 jobs, and local government education, which gained 42,000. Construction added 22,000 positions and manufacturing 16,000, while information employment declined. The average private-sector workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours during August, official data showed.
The dollar initially strengthened after the release as traders raised the probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase at its September 15-16 meeting. Fed funds futures implied roughly a 59 per cent chance of a quarter-point rise after the data, up from about 50 per cent beforehand.
Those gains faded as investors turned attention to next week’s inflation figures, which are expected to play a decisive role in the Fed’s assessment. Producer-price data are due on Thursday, followed by consumer-price figures on Friday. Economists expect annual core consumer inflation to ease to 2.4 per cent from 2.5 per cent in July.
The dollar index, which tracks the US currency against six major peers, was up about 0.1 per cent at 99.10 later in the session. The euro was little changed around $1.162, while sterling held near $1.35 after showing limited reaction to the US employment report.
The yen’s weekly strength has been driven primarily by expectations of further Bank of Japan tightening. Markets were pricing a high probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the central bank’s September 17-18 meeting after policy board member Hajime Takata said officials should act nimbly to counter intensifying inflation pressures rather than adhere to a predictable schedule.
Speculation about a larger or faster sequence of rate increases has also encouraged investors to unwind short-yen positions that had accumulated while Japan maintained substantially lower borrowing costs than other major economies.
Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, said on Friday that authorities remained alert to exchange-rate movements, maintaining Tokyo’s warning that it was prepared to respond to excessive volatility. Officials have repeatedly stressed that intervention is aimed at disorderly market moves rather than defending a specific exchange rate.
The yen had approached 155.21 per dollar, the strongest level reached after July’s coordinated intervention. A sustained break beyond that level would put the currency at its strongest point since early May.
The broader policy outlook remains finely balanced. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that he was inclined to support unchanged rates if incoming data confirmed that inflation pressures were cooling, tempering expectations of an imminent increase before the payrolls figures were released.
Wage data offered some support for that argument despite the stronger hiring numbers. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3 per cent in August and were 3.1 per cent higher than a year earlier, the weakest annual increase since June 2021.
Higher Japanese government bond yields have also fuelled speculation that domestic investors could shift some overseas holdings back to Japan. Market participants have focused particularly on insurers and pension funds with large foreign-asset portfolios as relative returns on Japanese debt improve.
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