Preliminary figures from the Swedish Election Authority put the opposition bloc led by Social Democrat Magdalena Andersson ahead of Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s governing alliance, with the margin narrow enough to keep both sides from claiming victory.
With votes counted from 6,195 of Sweden’s 6,312 election districts, the opposition was projected to take 176 seats in the 349-member Riksdag against 173 for the right-wing bloc. Earlier projections had shown a one-seat 175-174 advantage, underscoring how sensitive the outcome remained to late, overseas and uncounted votes.
Andersson, who served as prime minister from 2021 to 2022, told supporters that her side was leading but stressed that the country had to wait for the final result. Kristersson, who has governed since 2022, said he would examine possible parliamentary combinations once the count was complete.
The election had centred heavily on Kristersson’s decision to promise ministerial posts to the Sweden Democrats if the right retained power. The party has supported his three-party centre-right government from outside the cabinet since 2022 and has wielded substantial influence over immigration, crime and integration policy.
A place in cabinet would mark a significant step for the Sweden Democrats, which entered parliament in 2010 and became Sweden’s second-largest party four years ago. The party acknowledges that people with links to neo-Nazi and white-supremacist movements were involved in its early history, while leader Jimmie Åkesson says it has expelled extremists and broken with that past.
The vote nevertheless delivered a setback for Åkesson. Early results suggested the Sweden Democrats had lost roughly three percentage points from their 20.5 per cent share in 2022, falling from second to third place and recording their first decline in support since entering parliament.
That weakening complicated the right bloc’s effort to secure a governing majority. Kristersson’s Moderate Party appeared to have overtaken the Sweden Democrats, while the smaller Christian Democrats and Liberals also remained crucial to the arithmetic of any right-led government.
For Andersson, a narrow opposition victory would not automatically produce an easy path back to office. Her prospective parliamentary support stretches from the Left and Green parties to the market-oriented Centre Party, whose positions differ sharply on taxation, migration and nuclear power.
Those divisions could make negotiations difficult even if the centre-left bloc finishes with a numerical majority. Sweden’s constitutional system allows minority governments, but any candidate for prime minister must survive a parliamentary vote in which a majority cannot oppose them.
The campaign exposed a country divided over the direction taken during Kristersson’s four years in office. His government tightened asylum and residency rules, expanded expulsions and linked parts of welfare policy more closely to integration requirements, while arguing that tougher measures were needed to curb organised crime and restore public confidence.
Government supporters also pointed to a sharp fall in shootings. Police figures show that shootings declined from 391 in 2022 to 158 in 2025, with authorities saying the downward trend continued into 2026. Asylum immigration has also fallen to levels not seen for decades.
Opposition parties challenged the government’s broader approach, arguing that tougher migration policy and cooperation with the Sweden Democrats had placed pressure on civil liberties and Sweden’s liberal political traditions. Economic issues, welfare services, healthcare and household costs were also prominent during the campaign.
Despite the domestic divisions, the election was not expected to alter Sweden’s broad foreign-policy direction. The main parties support continued assistance for Ukraine and the country’s place in NATO, which Sweden joined in 2024 after abandoning its long-standing military non-alignment.
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