Gold slide rattles trillion-loss claim

Gold fell sharply on Thursday, but the viral claim that bullion had crashed below $4,600 and lost more than $1 trillion in market value in a single day appears to overstate what can be firmly confirmed from broad market data. By late trading, spot gold was quoted at $4,664.39 an ounce and US gold futures at $4,691.10, after a strong rebound a day earlier had lifted spot bullion to $4,784.22, its highest level since March 19.

The sell-off was driven less by a classic rush out of safe havens than by a renewed market fear that the Iran war could keep energy prices elevated and inflation stubborn. Brent crude jumped more than 6 per cent after Washington signalled continued military action, while higher oil fed through to Treasury yields and the dollar. That combination hurt bullion because gold offers no yield and tends to struggle when investors think interest rates may stay higher for longer.

March had already turned into gold’s worst month since 2008, a striking reversal for an asset that had been one of the year’s standout winners. Earlier in 2026, gold had climbed to record levels near $4,888 an ounce, backed by heavy investment demand, official-sector buying and expectations that reserve managers would keep diversifying away from traditional holdings. Total gold demand in 2025 reached an all-time high by value, and some central banks, including Brazil’s, expanded bullion allocations even at elevated prices.

That larger backdrop matters because the phrase “market cap” is not a standard live benchmark for gold in the way it is for listed equities or digital tokens. Analysts usually infer a notional total value by multiplying the gold price by the estimated stock of above-ground metal. An industry estimate put end-2025 above-ground stocks at 219,891 tonnes, equivalent to about 7.07 billion troy ounces, implying a theoretical total value of roughly $33 trillion at Thursday’s spot price.

Using that same stock estimate, the move from Wednesday’s spot quote of $4,784.22 to Thursday’s $4,664.39 would wipe out about $847 billion in implied value. A similar calculation based on the move in futures prices gives a loss of roughly $862 billion. That suggests the “more than $1 trillion” figure is plausible only if one uses a steeper intraday fall than the prices widely reported by major market outlets, or a different estimate of global gold holdings.

What can be said with confidence is that bullion has entered an unusually violent stretch. Spot gold fell as low as $4,097.99 last week before buyers re-emerged, and prices then rebounded into the $4,700-$4,800 range as the dollar softened and hopes grew for a possible easing in Middle East tensions. That swing has unsettled investors who treat gold as a store of value, while also creating entry points for bargain hunters in physical markets.

The physical side of the market has been sending mixed signals. Lower prices improved demand in India, where dealers reported better interest from buyers after the correction, though many jewellers stayed cautious because volatility remained extreme and the rupee added another layer of uncertainty. In China, premiums narrowed as demand softened, even while official buying limits and strategic interest in bullion continued to support the broader market.

Longer-term forecasts have therefore not collapsed with the price. Goldman Sachs in January lifted its end-2026 target to $5,400 an ounce, citing private-sector buying and reserve diversification, while UBS later raised its target as high as $6,200 for parts of 2026 before projecting a more modest level by year-end. Those calls underline the split now running through the gold trade: short-term pressure from oil, inflation and yields against longer-term support from central banks, portfolio hedging and geopolitical distrust of dollar assets.