Arabian Post Staff The International Air Transport Association (IATA) sees 2020 global revenue losses for the passenger business of between $63 billion (in a scenario where COVID-19 is contained in current markets with over 100 cases as of 2 March) and $113 billion (in a scenario with a broader spreading of COVID-19). No estimates are yet available for the impact on cargo operations. IATA’s previous analysis (issued […]
By Matein Khalid My tactical idea last week to recommend buying sterling against the US dollar (cable) at 1.30 for a 1.34 target is 200 pips in the money now that the Bank of England kept the policy rate unchanged at 0.75% despite Governor Carney’s smoke signals. Sterling closed at 1.32 on Friday evening and will be well bid next week – hopefully. I expect Governor Bailey […]
By Arabian Post Staff Already struggling to grapple with a crisis of unprecedented proportions, the coronavirus outbreak is the last thing that Dubai and the UAE would have liked to see happen. Moody’s noted in one of its latest reports that the timing of the outbreak is particularly bad for the hospitality industry because it is has unfolded as the Lunar New Year gets underway. The holiday […]
In an event held at the UAE’s only ecological school, the Arbor School, the Finnish Expo 2020 Dubai pavilion and the real-life Finnish Santa Claus highlighted the importance of adopting and adapting a circular economy in order to combat the current climate crisis the world is facing and empowering our youth to be part of sustainable change. The Arbor School was selected to host Santa Claus due […]
By Arabian Post Staff A surge in arrivals over the summer months accelerated Dubai’s tourism momentum, as the city welcomed 12.08 million international overnight visitors in the first nine months of 2019, according to the latest visitation figures released by Dubai’s Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing (Dubai Tourism). The strong 4.3 per cent increase in volume growth compared to the same period last year was supported […]
By Arabian Post Staff The changing landscape of the US$360 trillion (Dh1,321 trillion) global wealth is now more than four times the global GDP of US$88 trillion. The wealth per adult reached a new record high of US$70,850, or 1.2% above the level of mid-2018 with Switzerland topping the biggest gains in wealth per adult this year, according to a latest report by Credit Suisse. Aggregate global […]
Beirut, Lebanon (CNN)-Lebanon is on the verge of economic collapse unless an “immediate solution” can be found to end days of nationwide protests that have paralyzed the country, Central Bank Governor Riad Salame told CNN in an exclusive interview Monday. Lebanon’s banks have been closed since the demonstrations, sparked by a series of proposed austerity measures including a tax on WhatsApp calls, began nearly two weeks ago. “It’s a […]
By Diyari Salih On the first of October, Iraq witnessed enormous protests against the government and the political elite in this country. Later, the prime minister, Adel Abdul Mahdi, announced many reform packages. He also declared that a committee would be established to investigate the actions of violence executed against the protesters. No one believed in these governmental procedures. Thus, a new wave of protests engulfed Iraq’s […]
By Hassan Ali Mansoor A noticeable trend around the world these days are media reports that paint a gloomy picture of the global economy. A particular focus of economists has been global banks and financial institutions. These reports claim that some banks have invested in risky portfolios that expose their customers to unnecessary risks. The precarious financial condition of Deutsche Bank, Germany, is quoted as an example […]
By Matein Khalid So Boris Johnson was elected the leader of the Conservative Party by 66% of the Tory membership and thus he, not Jeremy Hunt, will go to Buck House to present his credentials to Her Majesty the Queen. This increases the risk of both no deal Brexit and a potential Tory vote of no confidence in parliament, led by Mrs. May’s Chancellor of the Exchequer […]
By Matein Khalid Goldman Sachs shares traded at 190 when I wrote this article, way below its 52 week high at 245 making it a Cinderella in global investment banking at only 8.5 times forward earnings. It is obvious that Goldman’s involvement in the $7 billion 1MDB sovereign wealth heist in Malaysia has led to global outrage, demands for a $6 billion in punitive fine by Prime […]
By Matein Khalid Citigroup, the third largest US money center bank, owns subsidiaries in Latin America whose pedigrees go back almost a century. For instance, Banamex, Citi’s subsidiary in Mexico, is the second largest corporate/retail bank south of the Rio Grande. So it was no coincidence that Citi shares got sandbagged to a recent 61 as President Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Mexico’s $350 billion exports […]
/By Matein Khalid/Are we on the precipice of another spasm of intercontinental contagion in the emerging markets like 2018, or the Asian flu, tequila crisis, Russian rouble default or the Turkish banking crisis in the 1990’s. Yes. The Shanghai Composite Index has plunged 12% and (17% fall for Shenzhen) since Trump got nasty on the tortuous US-China trade dialogue. The IMF cut its global growth forecast to […]
|By Matein Khalid|The GCC currency pegs to the US dollar have been prominent in international finance in place since the early 1980’s, in times of war and revolution, in times of economic boom and bust, in times of crude oil price surges and crashes. Yet the oil crash of 2014-16 was an inflection point in the economic history of the Arabian Gulf. Crude oil prices were $115 […]
|By Matein Khalid| I had recommended buying the British pound at 1.2700 against the US dollar in successive columns in the past two weeks. Sterling is at 1.3200 as I write, the trade is already hugely profitable. Cable has now closed above its crucial 200 day moving average in a clear trend reversal. As markets dismiss the risk of a no deal Brexit, I believe the pound […]
|By Matein Khalid|If Asia is a growth warrant on the global economy, the omens look awful as the IMF just warned the financial glitterati at Davos. Asian equities were the victims of the grim macro investment themes in 2018. Four Federal Reserve interest rate hikes forced Asian central banks to raise borrowing costs to protect embattled local currencies. The Trump White House’s game of chicken on trade […]
The Euro has been a disaster since its birth in 1999. Its monetary pathologies led to youth unemployment rates of 50-60% in Greece, Spain and the Italian Mezzogiorno. It gave a trillion-dollar windfall to German exporters at the expense of the hapless Club Med and amplified Berlin’s diktat over the lands once occupied by the Third Reich. It created the milieu for Brexit, the gilets jaunes riots […]
By James M. Dorsey As far as Gulf leaders are concerned, President Donald J. Trump demonstrated with his announced US troop withdrawals from Syria and Afghanistan that his insistence that the “world is a dangerous place” has never been truer. The troop withdrawals coupled with Mr. Trump’s praising of Saudi Arabia’s alleged willingness to foot the reconstruction bill in Syria, moves that emphasized his lack of geopolitical interest in […]
|By Matein Khalid| I confess, I fell in love with South Africa’s Cape Town, though not its Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). 2018 has been an annus horribilis for both the rand and South African equities, with 30% losses for a US dollar investor, the fifth worse in the emerging markets. The euphoria after President Cyril Ramaphosa replaced Jacob Zuma early this year did not last as South Africa […]
|By James M. Dorsey| A series of Gulf and Middle East-related developments suggest that resolving some of the Middle East’s most debilitating and devastating crises while ensuring that efforts to pressure Iran do not perpetuate the mayhem may be easier said than done. They also suggest that the same is true for keeping US and Saudi interests aligned. Optimists garner hope from the fact that the US Senate may […]
|By Matein Khalid| OPEC”s ministerial meeting on December 6 will have a seismic impact on the outlook for global oil markets. OPEC has been unnerved by a 30% fall in crude oil prices in the past two months on expectations of lower oil demand due to a Chinese economic slowdown, spectacular growth in US shale oil supply, King Dollar’s chilling impact on the commodities complex and long […]
James M. Dorsey The killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and potential Western sanctions against Saudi Arabia has sparked renewed debate about the value of the longstanding alliance between the United States and the kingdom. The debate is not limited to the US or the kingdom, both of which are assessing the reliability of the other even if that is a debate that is waged in Saudi Arabia behind […]
|By Matein Khalid| 2018 has been a difficult year for GCC and Dubai real estate. Rents and capital values continued to fall in the third quarter, albeit at different rates in specific segments and micro-markets. The Federal Reserve’s latest monetary tightening at the September 26 FOMC means the six months Emirates Interbank Offered Rate (EIBOR), the bellwether rate for floating rate home mortgages in the UAE is […]
By James M. Dorsey Dug in for the long haul in its increasingly bitter dispute with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, Qatar is emerging as a key player in efforts to prevent tension between Israel and Hamas, the Islamist group that controls Gaza, from spinning out of control. Qatar’s increasing role counters Saudi and UAE efforts to shape Palestinian politics in their mould. It further […]
