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Soldier’s market bets expose secrecy risks

Federal prosecutors have charged a U. S. Army Special Forces master sergeant with using classified information from a military operation in Venezuela to make more than $400,000 through prediction-market bets, opening a criminal case that links national security secrecy with the expanding trade in event contracts.

Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, of Fayetteville, North Carolina, was named in an indictment unsealed in Manhattan federal court on charges including unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of nonpublic government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud and making an unlawful monetary transaction. He was stationed at Fort Bragg and had served in the U. S. Army since 2008.

Prosecutors allege Van Dyke was involved in the planning and execution of Operation Absolute Resolve, the mission that led to the capture of Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, in Caracas on January 3, 2026. The indictment says his military role gave him access to sensitive, nonpublic and classified information about the timing and nature of the operation before it became public.

Authorities say Van Dyke opened a Polymarket account on December 26, 2025, using a virtual private network that made his connection appear to originate outside the United States. Between December 27 and January 2, he allegedly bought about $33,934 worth of “yes” positions on Venezuela- and Maduro-related contracts, including markets tied to whether U. S. forces would enter Venezuela and whether Maduro would be out of power by January 31.

The largest alleged trades came in the final days before the operation. Court papers say Van Dyke purchased thousands of shares on contracts that would pay out if Maduro was removed from power by the end of January. After the operation was announced on January 3, several Maduro-related contracts resolved in his favour. Prosecutors say he ultimately made about $409,881 in profit.

The indictment also alleges that Van Dyke sought to hide the proceeds and his connection to the trades. He is accused of transferring hundreds of thousands of dollars in USDC. e, a dollar-linked cryptocurrency token, from his Polymarket account to a foreign cryptocurrency vault, then moving funds through a cryptocurrency exchange and into a brokerage account. Investigators say a brokerage account held about $415,511 as of April 21, representing proceeds traceable to the trades.

Federal authorities also cited steps allegedly taken after public attention turned to unusual trading in Maduro-related markets. Van Dyke is accused of asking Polymarket to delete his account while falsely claiming he had lost access to the associated email address. He also allegedly changed the email linked to a cryptocurrency exchange account to one not subscribed in his name.

The case has drawn attention because it appears to be the first criminal insider-trading prosecution tied to a prediction market. Event contracts allow traders to wager on the outcome of political, legal, economic or geopolitical developments, turning future events into tradable instruments. Supporters argue that such markets can aggregate information efficiently, while critics warn that they may create incentives for people with privileged access to sensitive information to trade on it.

Polymarket has said it identified suspicious trading and referred the matter to federal authorities. The platform has also said insider trading has no place in its markets. The company has expanded its public profile as prediction markets attract broader interest from traders, political observers and data-driven analysts seeking real-time expectations on elections, wars, policy moves and corporate events.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has filed a parallel civil complaint against Van Dyke, seeking restitution, disgorgement, civil monetary penalties, trading and registration bans, and a permanent injunction. The regulator said the case marks its first insider-trading action involving event contracts and its first use of a rule covering misuse of government information in this context.

The Justice Department has framed the indictment as a warning to clearance holders and other government personnel with access to classified material. Prosecutors argue that prediction platforms do not sit outside laws governing fraud, confidential information and national security. The charges remain allegations, and Van Dyke is presumed innocent unless proven guilty in court.



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