Aramco Charts Growth Course Amid Demand Surge

Amin H. Nasser, President & CEO of Aramco, told delegates at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London that the company will pursue “energy addition” to cope with intensifying global demand, underlining its steadfast ambition to maintain dominance in oil. He argued that conventional energy sources will remain critical even as the energy transition narrative evolves.

Nasser projected that global oil demand will grow by 1.1–1.3 million barrels per day this year and by 1.2–1.4 million bpd in 2026. He added that Aramco, having kept extraction costs at about $2 per barrel of oil equivalent for oil and $1 for gas, is well-positioned to meet the incremental demand. Speaking to a gathering of energy executives, he said the company can sustain maximum crude output of 12 million bpd for a full year without incurring extra cost.

He stressed that while many promises of the energy transition have fallen short, three shifts are now underway. First, he said the market is conceding that underinvestment in supply has risks. Second, cost pressures on alternative technologies are forcing a reevaluation of pace. Third, energy security is reclaiming a central role in policy-making. “Much of the promised progress has not been delivered, with many unintended consequences. Thankfully, it is finally shifting the narrative in three key ways,” Nasser said.

Behind the rhetoric lies a more cautious reality: Aramco has pared back its previous ambition to reach 13 million bpd, reverting instead to a 12 million bpd sustainable ceiling. That policy shift reportedly followed directives from Saudi energy authorities in early 2024.

In his remarks, Nasser also affirmed Aramco’s push into downstream and petrochemicals. He cited the company’s recent majority acquisition of Petro Rabigh, a 10 percent stake in China’s Rongsheng Petrochemical, and a joint $11 billion ethylene complex with TotalEnergies that is slated to come online by 2027. These moves, he said, diversify revenue streams beyond crude.

His stance echoes his commentary at earlier industry events. At CERAWeek in Houston, Nasser had cast doubt on the viability of green hydrogen and questioned the assumption that renewables alone can displace fossil fuels. He then quipped that there was “more chance of Elvis speaking” than seeing the current transition plans succeed.

Analysts say that Aramco’s optimism hinges on its low-carbon upstream intensity and vast reserves, which give it flexibility against higher-cost producers. The International Energy Agency’s estimates place Saudi spare capacity at about 2.43 million bpd, part of OPEC+’s total idle capacity of around 4.05 million bpd.

Still, external pressures persist. Governments worldwide face competing goals of emissions reduction, energy access, and geopolitical security. In many markets, renewables and storage technologies remain maturing, requiring heavy capital and regulatory support before they can scale. Critics argue that overreliance on fossil fuels could lock in carbon-intensive infrastructure and slow the path to net zero.

At the London forum, however, Nasser signalled that Aramco sees its role as not merely supplying more oil but shaping the discourse. “We are determined to remain dominant in oil thanks to a massive resource base, low costs, and one of the lowest upstream carbon intensities across the industry,” he said. He urged policymakers and financiers to support broad energy investment rather than prematurely dismiss conventional sources.