DP World maps shifts in maritime trade

Global maritime trade is being redrawn by geopolitical disruption, climate pressures, trade-policy changes and the spread of manufacturing to new regions, increasing the need for more flexible shipping and logistics networks, DP World has said.

The Dubai-based ports and logistics group set out the assessment in a Marine Services whitepaper, Navigating the Future of Maritime Trade, issued for World Maritime Day on September 24. It said more than 80 per cent of world merchandise trade by volume moves by sea, while maritime networks carry an estimated $14 trillion worth of containerised goods.

DP World said the emerging trade system would require more adaptable corridors linking ports with feeder, coastal and shortsea shipping, as well as inland rail, road and river networks. Such connections can give cargo owners alternative gateways when established routes are disrupted by conflict, extreme weather, tariffs, sanctions or regulatory changes.

Ganesh Raj, DP World’s chief operating officer for Marine Services, said agility and the ability to adapt were becoming essential to business confidence and growth. He said the company’s concept of “connected trade corridors” was intended to create choice by linking ports, marine services and inland logistics so cargo could be rerouted when conditions changed.

The whitepaper identifies four structural forces reshaping cargo movements: geopolitical disruption, climate pressure, changing trade policies and geographically distributed manufacturing. It says pressure on established shipping routes is lengthening journeys, increasing costs and adding uncertainty, while extreme weather is exposing vulnerabilities across maritime and inland transport networks.

Tariffs, sanctions and regulatory changes are also influencing sourcing and routing decisions, requiring supply chains to adjust without losing reliability or visibility, the paper said. At the same time, production is becoming more dispersed, with India, Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa taking larger roles in global manufacturing.

That shift is supporting new regional shipping patterns and stronger South-South trade. DP World said merchandise exports between developing economies rose nearly twentyfold from about $500 billion in 1995 to $8.8 trillion in 2025, with more than half of developing-country exports now destined for other developing markets.

The company said these changes were expanding the role of feeder, coastal and shortsea services, which connect emerging production centres and regional ports to international trade lanes. DP World’s Marine Services network links more than 200 ports across Northern Europe, the Mediterranean, the Middle East, Africa, Asia and the Americas, supported by a fleet of more than 500 vessels.

The whitepaper argues that global trade is being reconfigured rather than retreating. DP World’s 2026 Global Trade Observatory, based on responses from more than 3,500 supply-chain and logistics executives, found that 94 per cent expected trade growth in 2026 to match or exceed 2025 levels.

Independent trade data point to continued resilience alongside growing transport uncertainty. The World Trade Organization’s September goods trade barometer showed most component indices above trend, although its container shipping index slipped to 99.6, just below the benchmark level of 100. The WTO’s March outlook forecast world merchandise trade volume growth of 1.9 per cent in 2026 under its baseline scenario.

Maritime transport has nevertheless faced persistent route disruption. UN Trade and Development has said more than 80 per cent of international merchandise trade by volume is carried by sea and has warned that geopolitical tensions, climate-related constraints and trade-policy shifts are adding volatility to shipping costs, schedules and port operations.

Its maritime review, published in 2025, found that rerouting around disrupted chokepoints had increased sailing distances. Ton-miles, a measure combining cargo volume and distance travelled, rose by almost 6 per cent in 2024 even as trade volumes grew much more slowly, illustrating the added burden placed on ships and networks when established passages become unavailable.