The South African Weather Service has warned that the Pacific warming event is already strong and could intensify further, with sea-surface temperature anomalies in the east-central tropical Pacific exceeding the threshold used to classify a very strong El Niño. Its seasonal outlook points to below-normal rainfall across many parts of the country and above-normal temperatures through the coming months.
The World Meteorological Organization said on Thursday that El Niño is firmly established and is expected to strengthen further, with forecasts showing a near-100 per cent probability that it will persist through February 2027. The agency said exceptionally warm tropical Pacific conditions support further intensification and could shift rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide.
South Africa’s government said the country’s typical El Niño pattern involves lower-than-normal summer rainfall combined with high temperatures. It said conditions during the 2025/26 summer had been comparatively favourable, with above-normal rainfall improving dam levels and soil moisture in many summer-rainfall regions, but warned that parts of the winter-rainfall zone had already experienced shortages.
Those conditions are sharpening concern in the insurance industry, where weather-related catastrophes have become a growing source of claims volatility. Insurers face exposure not only to direct damage from fires, storms and drought, but also to business interruption, agricultural losses, infrastructure failures and higher repair costs when severe events affect broad areas.
Cedric Masondo, chief executive of PSG Insure, has said weather-related catastrophes became the biggest driver of short-term insurance claims costs during the first half of 2026. He said the frequency and severity of floods, storms and wildfires had risen, while claims inflation and a harder reinsurance market were increasing the amount of risk retained by local insurers.
The expected shift from a wetter La Niña pattern to a drier El Niño summer is particularly important for wildfire exposure. Hotter weather, lower rainfall and drying vegetation can combine to create conditions in which veld fires spread rapidly, although forecasters caution that El Niño does not determine precisely where or when damaging events will occur.
Industry pressure is compounded by underinsurance. EY has identified climate-driven catastrophes, ageing infrastructure and elevated claims costs as continuing constraints on South African insurers, with higher premiums encouraging some policyholders to reduce cover. Agriculture faces a similar affordability problem, particularly among smaller producers. Risk specialists have increasingly urged businesses and farmers to combine insurance with practical adaptation, including firebreaks, drought-resilient planting, water management and stronger infrastructure, because insurance cannot prevent physical disruption or ensure that every loss is fully covered.
That uncertainty is evident in the North West province, where fire authorities have warned that the current season could become exceptionally severe. The North West Umbrella Fire Protection Association said more than 1.6 million hectares of veld and farmland could be exposed to fire risk as El Niño conditions strengthen. Its chairman, Eric Stoch, said the province lost about 1.4 million hectares in 2023, its worst year to date.
Agriculture is another major area of concern. The government said below-normal rainfall and elevated temperatures could produce dry conditions and heat stress, affecting crops and livestock. South Africa’s summer planting period begins around October, making rainfall during the final months of 2026 important for maize, soybeans, sunflower seed and other crops.
The insurance implications extend beyond farm policies. Property insurers can face higher claims from fire damage, while commercial insurers may be exposed to interrupted operations, transport disruption and losses linked to electricity or water constraints. Reinsurers, which provide protection to primary insurers against large losses, can also reprice risk when catastrophe frequency and severity increase.
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