Middle East visitor spending projected to climb 57%

International visitor spending in the Middle East is forecast to rise by US$116 billion, or 57%, between 2025 and 2030, signalling a sharp expansion in tourism revenues despite near-term geopolitical disruption.

The projection comes from the ATM Travel Trends Report 2026, produced by Arabian Travel Market with Tourism Economics, an Oxford Economics company, and presented at Arabian Travel Market in Dubai. The report expects international travel across the wider Middle East, North Africa and South Asia region to rebound strongly in 2027 after a weaker 2026.

Tourism Economics forecasts international travel across MENASA will grow by 17% next year, more than twice the projected global rate of 8%. By 2030, the region is expected to record 316 million international arrivals and 2.3 billion visitor nights, generating US$408 billion in spending. Those figures would represent increases of 36%, 46% and 55%, respectively, from 2025 levels.

Dave Goodger, Managing Director for Europe, the Middle East and Africa at Tourism Economics, said the expansion reflected more than a cyclical recovery. He said rising wealth, favourable demographics, sustained investment in tourism capacity and consumers’ continued preference for travel experiences were supporting the region’s longer-term outlook.

The forecast follows a strong global tourism performance in 2025. Total visitor nights reached 24 billion, 16% above 2019 levels, while spending at destinations rose 26% from 2019 to US$7.2 trillion. International arrivals also surpassed 1.5 billion for the first time, according to the report.

MENASA contributed heavily to that expansion. Travel volumes across the region in 2025 were almost 50% above 2019 levels, three times the growth recorded globally, while the region generated more than half of the worldwide increase in international travel over the same period.

The report also indicates that recovery from major travel shocks has become faster over time. Tourism Economics estimates that recovery periods have shortened from roughly 24 months in the early 2000s to about 10 to 12 months, a trend it says supports expectations for renewed growth after the present disruption.

Separate WTTC data for 2025 showed the Middle East travel and tourism sector contributed US$385.8 billion to regional GDP and supported 7.1 million jobs. International visitor spending rose 5.2%, compared with global growth of 3.2%, while business travel spending increased by more than 23%. The UAE recorded US$56.9 billion in international visitor spending, while Saudi Arabia remained the region’s largest travel and tourism economy, accounting for US$178 billion in sector GDP.

Investment also remained a priority.

The outlook nevertheless acknowledges disruption during 2026. The World Travel & Tourism Council said in August that conflict and airspace disruption were expected to make the Middle East the only region to record a decline in travel and tourism GDP this year, with the sector forecast to contract 14.5% from US$386 billion in 2025 to US$330 billion.

WTTC’s longer-term projections are also positive. It expects the Middle East to become the fastest-growing travel and tourism region between 2026 and 2036, with sector GDP expanding at an annual rate of 6.3% to US$605 billion. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Qatar are identified as major contributors to that growth.

Long-haul demand is expected to play a larger role in the next phase of expansion. The ATM report forecasts leisure visitor nights from China to the Middle East will rise by 160% by 2030, underlining the growing importance of Asian source markets alongside established European demand.

Technology is also becoming more central to travel planning and operations. Research cited in the report found 91% of Middle East travel businesses were piloting or already operating artificial intelligence tools, with 85% reporting measurable cost savings. Prospective visitors to the region were also more than twice as likely to have used an AI chatbot to plan a trip compared with travellers interested in other regions.

Hotel operators and online travel companies at the Dubai event also pointed to expanding accommodation capacity and the region’s role as both a destination and global transit hub. Rotana Chief Operating Officer Eddy Tannous said Dubai’s hotel inventory had expanded from about 45,000 rooms in 2008 to roughly 160,000 to 170,000 today, while Abu Dhabi had about 55,000 rooms.