Pressure on the economy is already visible in trade and commodity data. Merchandise trade with the Middle East has been hit by shipping disruption linked to the conflict, even as stronger exports to the United States helped keep March’s overall trade deficit lower than expected. At the same time, the fertiliser bill has jumped sharply: urea import offers to Indian Potash Ltd clustered near $1,000 a tonne this week, roughly double the level seen two months ago, raising the prospect of a larger subsidy burden just as the kharif cycle approaches. For policymakers, that combination matters because it hits both external accounts and domestic costs, especially in food production.
Energy remains the central fault line. The Strait of Hormuz handles about a fifth of global oil and gas shipments, and for India it is a vital corridor for roughly half of crude and LPG imports. That vulnerability has been laid bare by delays to vessel movements and the stranding of India-flagged ships in the Gulf. Iran’s envoy in New Delhi has denied any toll demand on tankers, and India has also said no such payments were made, but the broader message from the episode is that the route can no longer be treated as a routine artery for commerce when conflict risk is this high.
Oil traders have taken some comfort from ceasefire diplomacy and indirect talks between Washington and Tehran, yet prices remain elevated because markets do not believe a durable fix is close. Brent crude was still around $95 a barrel on April 16, and analysts say disruptions to flows through Hormuz remain severe. That leaves New Delhi facing a familiar but uncomfortable calculation: protect households from a fuel shock and risk wider fiscal stress, or let higher import costs work their way through the system and accept stronger inflation. The International Monetary Fund and World Bank have both warned that the conflict could scar global growth, raise prices and impose lasting damage even if the battlefield quietens.
Those warnings matter because the shock is broader than petrol and diesel. Wholesale prices are already climbing, and manufacturers are absorbing costlier freight, energy and feedstock. Fertiliser is a particular worry. If elevated urea prices persist, the state may have to spend more to shield farmers, while any squeeze on supply would carry risks for sowing costs and food inflation later in the year. Economists have argued for targeted support rather than broad subsidies, but that is easier said than done in a country where energy and fertiliser costs have immediate political as well as economic consequences.
There are, however, offsets that could soften the blow. March trade numbers showed that stronger shipments to the United States helped compensate for weaker business with the Middle East, and India continues to diversify its energy basket through Russian supplies and other alternatives where pricing works in its favour. A sanctioned LNG cargo from Russia is heading to Dahej, underlining the government’s willingness to prioritise supply security and consumer interests over diplomatic noise around purchasing patterns. That flexibility has given India more room than many pure importers, though it does not erase the strategic dependence on Gulf routes.
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