The projection, based on a survey of 65 respondents across the bank’s Global Research department, gives France its third World Cup title after triumphs in 1998 and 2018. Mbappé is expected to finish as the tournament’s top scorer, while Spain’s teenage forward Lamine Yamal is predicted to be named player of the tournament, setting up a marquee rivalry between two of football’s most influential attacking figures.
The forecast comes at a moment when France and Spain occupy the top two places in the FIFA men’s world ranking, separated by less than one point in the April update. France returned to the summit after wins in the March international window, while Spain, the reigning European champion, slipped to second after a draw against Egypt. Argentina, holder of the World Cup, is third, with England, Portugal, Brazil and the Netherlands also listed among the strongest contenders.
The 2026 tournament, staged across the United States, Mexico and Canada, will run from 11 June to 19 July and will be the first World Cup with 48 teams. The format includes 12 groups of four, with the top two sides in each group and the eight best third-placed teams advancing to a new round of 32. France has been drawn in Group I with Senegal, Iraq and Norway, while Spain faces Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia and Uruguay in Group H.
Bank of America’s football call reflects both sporting form and the growing tendency of financial institutions to use major tournaments as a lens for sentiment, national branding and market-facing cultural analysis. The bank’s respondents also identified Argentina and Brazil as leading alternatives, while Japan, Norway and Morocco were named among teams capable of springing surprises.
France’s status as favourite rests heavily on Mbappé’s tournament pedigree and current scoring record. The Real Madrid forward has already scored in two World Cup finals, including a hat-trick in the 2022 final against Argentina, and won the Golden Boot in Qatar. His club season has reinforced his centrality to Didier Deschamps’s plans, with 41 goals in 41 appearances across major competitions for Real Madrid, despite a hamstring issue that has drawn scrutiny in Spain.
Deschamps still has one of the deepest squads in international football. Mike Maignan is expected to lead the goalkeeping group, while William Saliba, Ibrahima Konaté, Theo Hernández and Jules Koundé give France defensive options with elite club experience. In midfield and attack, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Eduardo Camavinga, Warren Zaïre-Emery, Michael Olise, Rayan Cherki, Ousmane Dembélé, Marcus Thuram and Bradley Barcola underline the competition for places around Mbappé.
Spain’s case is equally strong. Luis de la Fuente has reshaped the side around technical control, aggressive pressing and width, building on the European Championship triumph and a sustained run of results over the past two years. Yamal, already decisive for Barcelona and Spain before turning 19, is central to the optimism around La Roja. His two-goal display against France in the 5-4 Nations League semi-final victory in Stuttgart last June remains the clearest reminder that Spain can trouble France’s defensive structure.
That match is likely to shape the narrative if the teams meet again in the final. Spain raced into a commanding lead through Nico Williams, Mikel Merino, Pedri and Yamal before France staged a late fightback through Mbappé, Rayan Cherki, a Dani Vivian own goal and Randal Kolo Muani. The result exposed France’s vulnerability when stretched, but it also showed the scale of their attacking reserves even when chasing a match that appeared lost.
Spain’s challenge lies in maintaining balance. Dani Carvajal’s fitness remains a talking point, while the management of Yamal’s workload will attract attention after two demanding seasons for club and country. Pedri, Rodri, Fabián Ruiz, Nico Williams, Dani Olmo and Álvaro Morata give De la Fuente a blend of control and penetration, but Spain’s route through Group H includes a difficult meeting with Uruguay, a side built on intensity and physical pressure.
France’s group also carries risk. Senegal has enough pace and structure to complicate Deschamps’s plans, while Norway’s attacking threat gives the section a sharper edge than the rankings alone suggest. The expanded format should offer major contenders greater margin for error, but it also adds an eighth match for the finalists, placing squad depth, recovery and rotation under heavier strain.
Argentina and Brazil remain credible threats to the forecast. Argentina enters the tournament as defending champion with Lionel Messi still central to global attention, though squad transition and physical management will shape expectations. Brazil continues to command attacking talent, but questions over cohesion, midfield authority and defensive consistency have lingered through recent cycles.
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