Matein Khalid
It is ironic that Brent crude collapsed from its $78 high on the New York Merc to as low as 66.80 in early Singapore trading even though Iran’s Revolutionary Guards launched a missile strike on America’s largest military base in the Gulf in Qatar. This retaliatory strike was polite, measured and apologetic with advance notice given to Centcom to avoid any US military casualties. Trump literally thanked Iran for the great degree of consideration shown for the sanctity of human life at Udeid Air Force base. The missile launch was symbolic and not retaliatory, the prelude to potential peace talks between Iran and the US on Trump’s preannounced terms.
The oil market finally agreed with my view that there was no real risk of mining, let alone closure of the world’s most critical energy chokepoint – the Straits of Hormuz. Yet the scale of long liquidation in the oil futures/swaps and wet barrel market stunned me as it presages a potential collapse of oil prices under the weight of a supply glut and falling demand. Who would have believed that energy would be the worst performing sector on the first trading day after the US bombed Iran’s three most important nuclear hubs at Fordo, Natanz and Ispahan. Welcome to the surreal Alice In Wonderland milieu of the global financial markets.
The macro heartbeats of finance now suggest that the optimum trade is to short gold for a $3200 target. Go long the AI colossus Nvidia as the risk fairies once again return to the money making Xanadu gifted to the cognoscenti by Jensen Huang. AI is the most revolutionary technology in human history because it improves as it is implemented across the digital ecosystem and is a productivity game changer that can mint fortunes for investors who grasp its cosmic potential. I have written at least a dozen posts on Nvidia since its May 2023 earnings triggered the latest parabolic rise in its revenues, earnings and share price. A 10X return on a free post is my idea of an intellectual black swan even though no one else has generated an idea as remotely profitable for me as I have done numerous times for both my close friends and followers.
Note that my conviction that 2025 would be the year to short the US dollar against the Euro, British pound and gold has proved consistently profitable. I have articulated the macro logic of the long Euro, sterling and gold trade ad infinitum since late 2024 in this post and in my media columns in the GCC and London. The Euro was at 1.0258 just after New Year Day 2025 and is now just above 1.16. Sterling/cable was at 1.2520 on New Year and is now 1.3615 as I write. Gold was at 2650 in early Jan 2025 and is now at 3325. I am temporarily out of love with Dr Auri and my cronies may express their thanks for this money making fiesta via liquid gifts next time we meet for dinner LOL!
Also published on Medium.
Follow Arabian Post
Select Arabian Post as your preferred source on Google and MSN News for trusted business news and Arab politics and updates.
