OPEC+ Deliberates Substantial Output Boost for November

OPEC+ delegates are weighing two divergent paths for November oil quotas: a modest lift mirroring October’s 137,000 barrels per day increase or a more aggressive jump, possibly two to three times larger. Diplomatic and market pressures appear to be pulling members in different directions.

Ahead of Sunday’s formal meeting, one source familiar with the deliberations described 137,000 bpd as the “base case,” replicating this month’s incremental pace. A second source, speaking on condition of anonymity, indicated that under more aggressive assumptions the group may opt for increases of 280,000 bpd or even 400,000 bpd. Those in favour of larger hikes argue that strengthening demand and constrained Russian output justify a bolder step.

Analysts are aligning with the moderate view. Goldman Sachs, for instance, projects a November quota increase of around 140,000 bpd, citing tight inventory levels in Asia and Europe and declining U. S. crude stockpiles. Pressure for a more substantial increase, however, is mounting given elevated oil prices and a desire among key producers to reclaim or expand market share.

During a meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee this week, OPEC+ emphasised full compliance with output agreements, urging shirking members to compensate for previous breaches. While the JMMC lacks decision-making power on quotas, it retains the ability to summon full OPEC+ sessions if necessary. This move underscores growing unease about cohesion ahead of the upcoming vote.

Market reaction has already shown sensitivity. Oil prices—which had climbed amid tight supply forecasts—slid more than 3 per cent early this week as traders factored in the possibility of an oversupplied market if OPEC+ moves decisively upward. Further pressure arrived as Iraq’s Kurdistan region resumed exports to Turkey, adding to short-term supply. Expectations of a November increase of at least 137,000 bpd have also fed concerns about potential gluts.

Saudi Arabia is anticipated to respond to this industrial backdrop by raising its official selling prices for November crude to Asia. Refining sources suggest increases of 20–40 cents per barrel for Arab Light, and larger bumps for heavier grades—moves intended to optimise returns amid the shifted supply landscape. Observers note, however, that these pricing adjustments may be constrained by growing global volumes and rising freight costs.

Within OPEC+ circles, some major players favour the status quo increment. They caution that a more aggressive hike could undermine prices and strain discipline among reluctant members. Others view a bold move as an opportunity to reshape global oil dynamics—forcing non-allied producers to respond and reasserting the cohesion and influence of the alliance.

Russia is under particular scrutiny. Its output has been running below forecasts, and further declines—coupled with Western sanctions and infrastructure disruptions—are cited by several sources as a justification for a larger quota increase across the group. Still, Moscow’s appetite for more substantial volume gains remains unclear, balancing revenue interests with geopolitical strategy.