Following the terrorist attacks in Paris, the most deadly violence to strike France since World War Two, world leaders are convening on Sunday and Monday for the G20 summit in Turkey. The meeting, whose agenda now includes the attacks and their aftermath, will also focus on the migrant crisis in the Middle East and Europe, and could thus become one of the most important G20 summits since […]
|By Matein Khalid| I was in a pensive-philosophic mood last week as I decompressed from a trip to a hauntingly beautiful post Soviet country in the Caucasus, the land that produced Koba from Gori and Prince Pyotr Bagration, the fallen hero of Tsar Alexander’s imperial guard at Borodino. Yet Georgia gave me time and perspective to think about the financial firestorms on Wall Street, Marounuchi, the Gulf […]
|By Matein Khalid| Saudi Arabia has fascinated me since I first met Hani AZ Yamani as a teenage student all those years ago at Wharton. Hani’s father was Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani, legendary Saudi Oil Minister (1962-86) under Kings Faisal, Khalid and Fahd. Sheikh Yamani managed the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks, survived a terrorist assault in Vienna by Carlos the Jackal, midwifed the birth of Saudi […]
|By Matein Khalid| 2015 has been a horror story for emerging markets and Asian shares have not escaped the fallout from the 40% plunge in Shanghai/Shenzhen since June. Yet financial markets discount the future while UAE investors invariably extrapolate the recent past. So even while I resurrect the ghosts of 1998 when Suharto’s regime fell amid anti-Chinese riots in Jakarta, South Korea was forced to accept a […]
UAE. Across the GCC, public pension funds amount to US$397 billion, representing nearly a quarter of GDP and US$15,000 per national. This is according to EY’s GCC Wealth and Asset Management 2015 report – “Fast growth, divergent paths”, launched at the FundForum Middle East 2015. GCC Governments are relooking at existing models of both public and international pension funds to ensure they are sustainable. George Triplow, MENA […]
|By Matein Khalid| Even as China’s President meets the capo di tutti capi in Seattle, its manufacturing PMI falls to 47, a post Lehman low, with new export orders in a slump. I found it significant that the offshore yuan fell 200 pips to 6.4346 after the PMI. This proves my core argument, outlined a month ago. The Middle Kingdom will respond to its economic decline and […]
INTERNATIONAL. Gleaming glass skyscrapers, state-of-the-art technology, and wealthy merchant families have replaced the Gulf’s muddy towns and villages populated by traders and pearl fishers that once lacked electricity, running water or modern communications. The region’s modern day projection of a visionary cutting- edge, 21st century urban environment masks however the fact that some things have not changed. Gulf states continue to be ruled by the same families, […]
UAE. The Middle East & North Africa ranks well above North America, Europe and Latin America in terms of market growth opportunities according to the Grant Thornton Global Dynamism Index (GDI) 2015. However, the region is lagging behind on a number of other indicators including labour market and financing environment. The GDI – which combines 22 indicators across five growth areas to identify the best business growth […]
QATAR. On Sept. 18, 2015, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services affirmed its ‘AA’ long-term and ‘A-1+’ short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on the State of Qatar. The outlook is stable. We also affirmed the ‘AA’ long-term issue ratings on the bonds issued by Qatari Diar Finance Q.S.C. and SoQ Sukuk A Q.S.C. RATIONALE Qatar is a wealthy economy; we estimate its GDP per capita […]
|By Matein Khalid| The world’s emerging markets have been savaged by multiple economic, banking, currency and political shocks since 2011. Global emerging markets are far too diverse and nuanced to be analyzed as a single asset class but now trade at a 24% valuation discount to developed markets. The financial markets now price draconian scenarios for earnings, exports, sovereign credit, industrial production and economic growth. The shortage […]
LEBANON. On Sept. 11, 2015, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services revised its outlook on the Republic of Lebanon to negative from stable. At the same time, we affirmed our ‘B-/B’ long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings. RATIONALE The outlook revision stems from our view that political uncertainty in Lebanon and regional tensions will continue to weigh on economic growth in the mediumterm. In […]
|By Matein Khalid| The Federal Reserve could well raise its overnight borrowing rate at the next FOMC monetary policy conclave on September 17. Though contagion from China’s 40% stock market meltdown has triggered bear markets from Hong Kong to Frankfurt and plunged Asian/emerging markets equities into ta ghastly replay of 1998’s epic meltdown (General Suharto’s overthrow, the Russian rouble default, Malaysia’s capital controls, the run on the […]
Ailing Canadian handset maker BlackBerry Ltd. is working to reinvent itself and spending a pretty penny to do it. The company has agreed to buy Good Technology for $425 million in an all-cash deal. The Good acquisition certainly fits into BlackBerry’s strategy to offer customers stronger mobile security. Good is recognized as a leader in security mobility with solutions that cover all stages of the lifecycle for […]
|By Matein Khalid| Hong Kong now trades at 9.6 times earnings and 0.86 book value. Hang Seng valuations were gutted by the protest movements in Central and the Shanghai financial meltdown. The Hang Seng index is down 25% since late May and now trades at six times forward earnings, its post Lehman, post 2014 bottom. Hong Kong trades at its lowest price/book value since the Asian flu […]
Middle East Memo From the West Bank In the 10th year of a four-year term in the absence of national elections, Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president, has lost the public’s confidence. A poll published on Tuesday showed trust in him falling to 16 percent from 22 percent in March. By JODI RUDOREN September 1, 2015 RAMALLAH, West Bank — Mahmoud Abbas, the aging Palestinian president, may be paving the way […]
INTERNATIONAL. The first Barclays UK Prosperity Map has revealed that booming house prices and returns in equity markets, in addition to higher wages and employment rates have resulted in every UK region becoming more affluent, and has driven a 41% increase in numbers of millionaires since 2010. Longer-term, growth in millionaires is expected to return to more normal levels, with a 9% increase in the UK expected […]
|By Matein Khalid| A month ago, I published a column predicting history’s first Made in China global recession. Wall Street finally agreed with me last week after we witnessed the most brutal crash in global equities since October 2008. I have predicated a 20% fall in US equities several times in the last three months and the 1000 point drop in the Dow last week only reinforces […]
INTERNATIONAL. Market price action dictates direction – traditional support levels were broken violently. Yesterday’s market was the most energised sell-off since 2008/2009. – The US dollar lead this crisis and will lead back up when the low is in – We have reached most of Steen Jakobsen’s technical targets and below is his primitive “expected” path from here (2015 low getting established) – We will see recession […]
UAE. The MENA Region is all set to become a global logistics hub in the next few years, an Al Masah Capital Limited Report on “Transportation & Logistics in MENA” has revealed, which experts believe will be driven by the emergence of the MENA-Asia trade corridor that will redefine global supply chains. Notably in 2013, India and China ranked as top merchandise export and import destinations for MENA […]
UAE. The recent action taken by the UAE to eliminate fuel subsidies with effect from 1 August 2015 ignited the debate on tax reform in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Whilst these countries are facing an increasing amount of pressure on their national budgets, every GCC government understands the urgent need for fiscal-sustainability in the long-term. This urgency, according to Deloitte’s latest report “VAT in the […]
KUWAIT. On Aug. 14, 2015, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services affirmed its ‘AA/A-1+’ long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Kuwait. The outlook is stable. RATIONALEPrices for crude oil have fallen by around 50% in the last year. We now forecast an average Brent oil price of $55/bbl in 2015 and $67.5/bbl in 2015-2018. The sharp fall in oil prices over the past […]
Headsets hang in front of a screen displaying a Spotify logo on it, in Zenica February 20, 2014. Reuters/Dado Ruvic/Files EDGARTOWN, Mass. If hearing Barack Obama break into song hasn’t satisfied your presidential music needs, you can now listen to his playlists on Spotify. The White House on Friday released two music sets “hand-created” by the president of the United States for daytime and evening listening as […]
INTERNATIONAL. Lifting sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear program will have a significant impact on the world oil market, the Iranian economy and Iran’s trading partners. Iran’s full return to the global market will eventually add about a million barrels of oil a day, lowering oil prices by US$10 per barrel next year, according to the World Bank, which also expects economic growth in the country to surge […]
SAN FRANCISCO Google Inc (GOOGL.O) announced a surprise overhaul of its operating structure on Monday, creating a holding company called Alphabet to pool its many subsidiaries and separate the core web advertising business from newer ventures like driverless cars. The move appeared to be an attempt by the search engine giant to focus on its more creative and ambitious projects, while investors cheered the potential for more […]
