News related to
lifts

The share sale, opened to institutional investors this week, drew bids of about ₹380 billion, or roughly 3.8 times the base offer. The indicative price was set at ₹2,883 a share, below the regulatory floor price of ₹3,034.68 and at a discount to the stock’s previous close, reflecting the typical pricing structure used to secure large-block institutional participation.

The enlarged issue marks one of Adani Enterprises’ biggest equity-raising exercises since the group was hit by a market rout in 2023 following allegations by US short-seller Hindenburg Research. The conglomerate denied wrongdoing, and group companies have since rebuilt access to capital through a mix of equity, debt, asset recycling and strategic partnerships.

The strong response to the placement signals that institutional investors are again willing to back the group’s growth strategy, even as they continue to price in governance, leverage and execution risks. The investor book included global funds and domestic asset managers, with demand high enough for the company to lift the deal size by 50 per cent.

Adani Enterprises is the incubator of the group’s newer businesses. Its portfolio spans airports, roads, data centres, green hydrogen, mining services, defence, solar manufacturing and other infrastructure-linked ventures. The company has been central to the group’s plan to build large operating platforms before eventually listing or separating mature units.

The latest fundraising comes as the group accelerates capital spending across transport, energy transition and materials. Its airports business operates eight airports and is preparing for the opening of Navi Mumbai International Airport, a project expected to strengthen the group’s presence in aviation infrastructure. Data centres and green hydrogen remain capital-intensive bets that require long gestation funding and steady access to institutional capital.

The timing also follows Adani Enterprises’ rights issue of about ₹250 billion completed in late 2025, which was oversubscribed. That offer was used to support capital expenditure, debt repayment and shareholder loan obligations. The new placement gives the company additional flexibility at a time when infrastructure companies are competing for long-duration capital amid rising demand for logistics, power, digital infrastructure and manufacturing capacity.

The share sale is also significant because it reduces reliance on borrowings for the next leg of expansion. Equity funding can ease pressure on balance sheets and improve investor perception of leverage, particularly for companies pursuing several projects at once. At the same time, the discounted pricing means some dilution for existing shareholders, a common trade-off in large institutional placements.

Market reaction was measured. Adani Enterprises shares initially faced pressure after pricing details emerged but later stabilised, suggesting investors had largely anticipated a discount. The stock has recovered substantially from its 2023 lows, though it remains closely watched because of the group’s debt profile, promoter holdings and regulatory scrutiny around past allegations.

The company’s investment cycle has broadened further with plans linked to a major aluminium project in Odisha in partnership with Abu Dhabi’s International Holding Company. The proposed project, valued at about $11.5 billion, is expected to include bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminium smelting and downstream capacity. The partnership underscores the group’s continuing effort to deepen industrial manufacturing alongside infrastructure.

IHC has been a notable backer of the group through periods of market volatility. Its involvement provides strategic weight to Adani’s expansion into metals, a sector that requires heavy upfront investment, access to raw materials, power security and strong execution discipline. Aluminium demand is being driven by transport, packaging, power transmission, construction and renewable energy infrastructure.

Adani Enterprises’ fundraising also fits a broader trend across the equity market, where companies have used qualified institutional placements to raise growth capital while valuations remain supportive. QIPs allow listed companies to place shares with large investors without the longer timelines associated with some other public offerings. For issuers, the format is faster; for institutions, it provides access to sizeable allocations in liquid companies.

The first batch was received by officials of the Army’s Southern Command in Nashik, Maharashtra. The delivery forms part of a 217-drone contract, with the company aiming to supply the remaining 176 units by August 2026. The schedule gives Drogo Aerospace a tight execution window at a time when demand for tactical drones is rising across reconnaissance, border monitoring and battlefield support roles.

The JK 250e drones have been developed and built by Drogo Aerospace for surveillance, reconnaissance and other military missions. The platform can fly for up to three hours on a single charge, giving field units extended aerial coverage without depending on conventional runway infrastructure. The drone’s role is centred on intelligence gathering and real-time observation, areas that have become central to ground operations as armies adapt to a battlefield shaped by low-cost aerial systems, loitering munitions and sensor-driven targeting.

Drogo Aerospace founder and chief executive Yeshwanth Bonthu said the delivery validates the company’s technology base, manufacturing capability and commitment to national security. The company is now working on indigenous loitering munitions, long-endurance UAVs, AI-powered aerial intelligence platforms, advanced surveillance systems and reconnaissance products aimed at future operational requirements.

The order also marks a transition point for the company, formerly known as Drogo Drones Pvt Ltd. Its rebranding as Drogo Aerospace reflects a broader move beyond conventional drone manufacturing into defence, aviation, unmanned systems, satellite-linked platforms and aerospace technologies. Headquartered in Madhapur, Hyderabad, the firm has positioned itself as a next-generation unmanned systems developer at a time when procurement policy is opening more space for private manufacturers and specialised start-ups.

The company is setting up a 100,000-square-foot drone manufacturing facility at Maheshwaram in Telangana’s Ranga Reddy district. The state government has allotted about 4.5 acres to the firm within the Electronics Manufacturing Cluster for the project. The facility is expected to generate around 500 additional jobs, adding to an existing workforce of about 300. The investment is designed to support scale production as defence orders move from prototypes and limited trials to larger supply commitments.

The delivery comes as the armed forces are accelerating induction of drones for tactical and operational roles. Planned domestic military drone orders may exceed $2 billion this year, with deliveries expected over 18 to 24 months. More than 600 drone and component companies now operate in the country, including over 100 focused on defence applications. The sector includes large industrial groups as well as specialist start-ups developing reconnaissance platforms, logistics drones, loitering munitions, precision-strike systems and critical components.

Battlefield developments over the past three years have sharpened the focus on unmanned systems. The war in Ukraine demonstrated how inexpensive drones can alter artillery targeting, logistics interdiction and frontline surveillance. Conflicts in West Asia have further highlighted the value of layered air defence, counter-drone technology and rapid intelligence cycles. Along the northern and western frontiers, persistent surveillance has become a core requirement for ground formations operating across difficult terrain and extended lines of control.

The Ministry of Defence has also widened support for smaller firms through innovation challenges and procurement pathways aimed at turning prototypes into deployable systems. Under the iDEX framework, hundreds of start-ups, MSMEs and individual innovators have entered the defence innovation ecosystem since 2018. Dozens of prototypes have received procurement clearance, and contracts worth thousands of crores have moved from concept development into acquisition. This has helped shorten the distance between battlefield requirements and production-ready technology.

For Drogo Aerospace, execution of the JK 250e order will test its ability to deliver at scale while maintaining quality and mission reliability. Military drone contracts require not only airframe performance but also secure communications, rugged field handling, dependable batteries, payload integration, training, maintenance support and spare availability. The Army’s experience with the first batch is likely to shape follow-on acceptance, deployment tempo and confidence in the remaining units due by August.

The project marks the company’s first new rare-earth refining facility since 2008 and comes as demand for high-performance magnets rises across electric vehicles, hard disk drives, robotics, wind power systems, defence equipment and advanced electronics. The investment is expected to exceed ¥35 billion, with ¥17.5 billion to be covered by government subsidy support, although the final cost and production schedule have not yet been fixed.

The new facility is intended to reinforce supplies for Shin-Etsu’s rare-earth magnet business and strengthen access to raw materials used in neodymium-based magnets. Heavy rare earths such as dysprosium, terbium and yttrium are particularly important because they improve magnet performance in high-temperature and high-stress applications, including vehicle motors and precision industrial systems.

Shin-Etsu already operates rare-earth refining facilities in Japan and has long been one of the country’s most important producers in the sector. Its rare-earth operations are centred in Fukui Prefecture, where it smelts materials and manufactures magnets at its plant in Echizen. The company says it works from raw materials through production to provide stable quality and supply, while also pursuing recycling and resource diversification.

The planned expansion reflects a broader shift in Japan’s industrial policy after months of tightening access to critical minerals. Chinese shipments of several heavy rare earths and gallium to Japan have been severely restricted since late 2025, heightening concerns among manufacturers that depend on these materials for magnets, semiconductors and other precision components. China continues to dominate mining, separation and refining capacity across the rare-earth value chain, giving Beijing considerable leverage over downstream industries.

Japan remains the largest rare-earth magnet producer outside China, but its manufacturers are still exposed to bottlenecks in the supply of heavy rare earths. The country has built stockpiles, backed overseas projects and encouraged recycling since the 2010 rare-earth shock, when diplomatic tensions with China exposed the risk of overdependence on one supplier. Those measures have improved resilience, but they have not removed the vulnerability.

The latest project is significant because it targets refining and processing rather than simply raw-material procurement. Mining deposits alone do not solve the supply challenge; rare earths require complex separation, purification and alloy processing before they can be turned into magnets. China’s advantage lies not only in reserves but also in decades of accumulated processing capacity, cost efficiency and industrial integration.

Shin-Etsu’s move also fits into a wider network of partnerships being pursued by Japan with Australia, France and the United States. Tokyo has backed alternative producers, supported offtake arrangements and encouraged private-sector investment in midstream processing. Australia-based Lynas has become a key non-China supplier, but output of heavy rare earths remains far below the volumes needed to replace Chinese supply in full.

The pressure is not limited to Japan. Manufacturers in the United States and Europe have faced similar supply uncertainty as export licensing delays affect rare earths used in aerospace, defence, clean energy and electronics. Companies exposed to the restrictions are searching for alternative suppliers, but industry executives warn that rebuilding a fully independent supply chain will take years.

For Shin-Etsu, the business case rests on both security and demand. Permanent magnets are central to electrification and digital infrastructure. Electric vehicles require compact, powerful motors; data centres and hard disk drives depend on precision magnetic components; wind turbines need high-strength magnets to improve efficiency. Demand growth has made the magnet supply chain a strategic concern for governments as well as manufacturers.

The company’s project is unlikely to eliminate Japan’s reliance on imported feedstock, especially for heavy rare earths where global non-China supply remains thin. It could, however, give domestic manufacturers greater control over processing, quality assurance and emergency production planning. That matters for customers in sectors where delivery delays can disrupt production lines and where material specifications are tightly controlled.

The government subsidy underscores how rare earths have moved from a specialist materials issue to a national industrial priority. Public support reduces the financial burden on companies undertaking technically demanding projects with long payback periods. It also signals that Tokyo is prepared to use industrial policy to keep strategic capabilities onshore.

Customs figures showed a sharp rise in outbound shipments of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products, extending the strong performance seen in April, when exports reached 598,000 metric tonnes. The increase underlined China’s role as the main buffer for a global market unsettled by production cuts, shipping delays and higher insurance costs linked to the conflict around the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

The aluminium surge came as China’s wider trade machine gathered pace. Total exports rose 19.4 per cent from a year earlier in May, beating forecasts and widening the trade surplus to more than $105 billion. Imports also grew 27.4 per cent, but the headline gain masked a sharp fall in crude purchases, with volumes down about 29 per cent as refiners leaned more heavily on inventories and cut some buying amid elevated freight and geopolitical risks.

Aluminium has become one of the clearest channels through which the Middle East war is reshaping industrial supply chains. Producers in Gulf states account for a meaningful share of non-Chinese primary aluminium supply, and disruption to power-intensive smelting, port activity and shipping routes has tightened availability for consumers in Europe, Asia and North America. Prices in London climbed to a four-year high this month as traders priced in the risk of prolonged supply constraints.

Chinese exporters have benefited from the opening. Producers and traders have increased shipments of semi-finished products and other aluminium categories where overseas premiums have risen faster than domestic prices. The price gap has improved margins for exporters, even as Beijing continues to manage capacity growth in a sector long associated with heavy energy use and emissions.

The market shift is particularly important for manufacturers in transport, construction, packaging, power infrastructure and renewable energy. Aluminium is widely used in electric vehicles, aircraft parts, solar frames, building systems and high-voltage transmission equipment. A sustained shortage outside China could raise input costs for industries already dealing with expensive financing, disrupted shipping schedules and volatile energy markets.

China’s advantage rests on scale. The country dominates global aluminium production and has built deep processing capacity across provinces such as Shandong, Henan, Guangxi and Yunnan. Its producers can move quickly when export margins improve, though output remains constrained by power costs, environmental controls and the national ceiling on smelting capacity.

The export rise also carries political sensitivity. Western governments have long argued that China’s industrial policies create excess capacity and depress global prices. A fresh wave of metal exports, even if driven by war-related shortages, could sharpen trade friction at a time when the United States, Europe and other economies are expanding scrutiny of Chinese goods in sectors ranging from steel and batteries to solar components and electric vehicles.

Crude oil tells a different story. China remains the world’s largest crude importer, but May’s decline showed how refiners are adjusting to uncertainty in Gulf shipping. The Middle East supplied a large share of China’s crude last year, with Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Kuwait and Qatar among key reported suppliers, while Iranian barrels have continued to reach Chinese buyers through opaque trading channels.

Refiners have drawn on commercial and strategic inventories built during earlier periods of lower prices and heavy discounted buying. Weak domestic fuel margins have also reduced the incentive to import aggressively. Independent refiners in Shandong and state-run plants have faced pressure from high crude costs, capped fuel prices and softer demand growth as electric vehicles erode petrol consumption.

The fall in crude imports may help ease immediate pressure on global oil markets, but it also reflects the vulnerability of China’s energy security to maritime disruption. The Strait of Hormuz remains central to crude and liquefied natural gas flows, and any prolonged interruption would force Beijing to rely more on stockpiles, pipeline supplies from Russia and Central Asia, and alternative seaborne routes.

For commodity markets, May’s trade data showed a split picture. Metals exports are expanding where China can monetise overseas shortages, while energy imports are being managed more cautiously to reduce exposure to war-driven price spikes. Copper imports slipped from April, suggesting that parts of the manufacturing supply chain remain uneven despite the strong headline export performance.

The rise marks a sharp escalation in the central bank’s effort to cushion the currency after the rupee weakened to a record low near 97 to the dollar on 20 May. The position, built through forward and offshore derivative contracts, shows how the central bank has increasingly relied on future dollar sales rather than only spot-market intervention to manage disorderly moves in the exchange rate.

The rupee traded around 95.3 to the dollar on 8 June, giving back part of the gains made after the central bank announced measures on 5 June to attract foreign-currency inflows and ease pressure on the balance of payments. The currency had closed near 94.95 on 5 June, its strongest one-day performance in about two months, after the measures were unveiled.

Forward-market intervention allows the central bank to signal dollar availability without immediately drawing down spot reserves. By selling dollars for future delivery, the RBI can influence market expectations, compress forward premiums and reduce one-way speculative pressure against the rupee. The method, however, creates future obligations and can complicate liquidity management when contracts mature.

The central bank’s net short forward book had already reached about $104 billion by the end of March, rising sharply from around $77 billion a month earlier. The move beyond $110 billion indicates that intervention continued through May and early June as global and domestic pressures intensified.

Oil prices, portfolio outflows, a firm dollar and geopolitical tensions have weighed on the rupee through much of the year. India’s large crude import bill makes the currency sensitive to oil-market swings, while higher US yields reduce the appeal of emerging-market assets. Equity outflows have added to the pressure, leaving the central bank to balance currency stability with the need to preserve reserves and domestic liquidity.

The RBI’s latest package seeks to reduce that burden by bringing in dollar flows rather than relying only on intervention. Measures include concessional foreign-exchange swaps for public-sector companies raising external commercial borrowings, support for banks mobilising foreign-currency non-resident deposits, and expanded access for overseas investors to longer-tenor government securities under the fully accessible route. Concentration limits for such investments were also relaxed.

The government’s decision to exempt overseas investors from capital gains tax on certain government bond transactions has strengthened the policy push. Market expectations now centre on whether these steps can draw $30 billion to $50 billion in medium-term inflows, with a higher figure possible if global bond investors increase allocations.

The central bank has avoided using interest-rate increases as the primary defence for the rupee, preferring targeted foreign-exchange and inflow measures. That approach reflects the RBI’s effort to separate currency management from domestic monetary policy. Keeping policy rates focused on inflation and growth gives the central bank room to support activity while using reserves, swaps and forward positions to contain currency volatility.

Foreign-exchange reserves remain sizeable, though they have fallen from their February peak as the central bank intervened to smooth the rupee’s decline. The reserves provide an important buffer, but the growing forward position shows that the defence is no longer confined to visible reserve movements. Market participants are watching both the headline reserves number and the maturity profile of the forward book for signs of future stress.

A large net short dollar position is not unusual during periods of currency strain, but the scale now matters. When contracts mature, the central bank must either deliver dollars, roll positions forward, or offset the impact through liquidity operations. Each option carries trade-offs for money-market rates, banking-system liquidity and the credibility of currency management.

For importers, the intervention has helped reduce the risk of abrupt rupee depreciation, though hedging costs and uncertainty remain elevated. Exporters face a more complex picture, as a weaker rupee supports earnings in local-currency terms but volatility makes pricing and cash-flow planning harder. Banks, meanwhile, are adjusting positions as forward premiums move in response to central bank activity.

The stock climbed about 6 per cent on Tuesday as investors reacted to signs that Tencent is moving closer to embedding a task-performing assistant inside WeChat, the messaging, payments and social platform used by more than 1.4 billion people. The prototype is designed to help users complete everyday actions within the app, including finding venues, interacting with mini-programmes and placing customised orders, rather than merely answering questions in chatbot form.

The planned agent would mark a significant step in Tencent’s push to convert its AI investments into consumer products at scale. WeChat already functions as a digital operating system for daily life in China, covering messaging, payments, shopping, food delivery, public services, entertainment, ride-hailing and enterprise communication. That reach gives Tencent an advantage that few rivals can match: a single platform with a vast user base, heavy daily engagement and a dense network of third-party services.

People familiar with the prototype have indicated that users would be able to access the AI agent through a swipe gesture on the main WeChat screen. Tencent is expected to begin the regulatory compliance process before wider testing, with a small group of external users likely to receive access before any phased public launch. A firm release date has not been set, reflecting both regulatory uncertainty and the technical demands of deploying agentic AI across a platform of WeChat’s size.

The market response underscores how investors are reassessing Tencent’s AI position after months of concern that the company was trailing Alibaba, ByteDance and Baidu in the race to commercialise generative AI. Tencent has promoted Yuanbao, its AI chatbot, developed its Hunyuan foundation model and introduced productivity-focused AI tools, but WeChat remains the asset most capable of turning those efforts into a daily consumer habit.

Tencent’s first-quarter earnings showed both the strength and the cost of that strategy. Revenue rose 9 per cent year on year to RMB196.5 billion, while IFRS net profit attributable to equity holders increased 21 per cent to RMB58.1 billion. Marketing services revenue rose 20 per cent to RMB38.2 billion, helped by AI-driven advertising improvements, while domestic games revenue grew 6 per cent and international games revenue climbed 13 per cent. Capital expenditure reached RMB31.9 billion, up 16 per cent, as spending on AI infrastructure continued to rise.

The company has told investors that new AI products are weighing on margins, even as core businesses continue to generate strong cash flow. Excluding new AI products, non-IFRS operating profit rose 17 per cent in the first quarter, compared with a 9 per cent increase overall. That gap highlights the near-term drag from AI investment, but also explains why investors are sensitive to any sign that Tencent can place AI directly into revenue-generating services.

Competition is intensifying across China’s technology sector. Alibaba has pushed Qwen into consumer and enterprise markets, ByteDance has expanded AI features across its content ecosystem, and Baidu continues to build around Ernie and AI cloud services. The key battleground is shifting from chatbots to agents that can perform tasks, connect with apps and act across digital services with limited user input.

WeChat’s mini-programme ecosystem could be central to Tencent’s approach. Millions of merchants, developers and service providers already operate within the platform, allowing an AI agent to navigate services without pushing users outside Tencent’s environment. For merchants, an effective agent could increase conversion rates by shortening the path from search to purchase. For Tencent, it could deepen engagement, improve advertising relevance and strengthen its fintech and business services ecosystem.

Regulation remains a critical constraint. China requires generative AI services offered to the public to comply with rules covering data security, content control and algorithmic governance. Any WeChat agent would need to satisfy those requirements before broad release, especially because it could interact with payments, commerce and public services.

The reported move, if confirmed, would mark a significant shift in the composition of India’s external buffers at a time when oil prices, foreign portfolio outflows and import demand are combining to test the country’s balance of payments position. The RBI has not publicly confirmed any gold sale of that scale, and the latest available reserve data show a fall in the value of gold holdings rather than a definitive disclosure of physical bullion sales.

India’s foreign exchange reserves fell to $681.4 billion for the week ended May 22, down $7.5 billion from the previous week. Foreign currency assets declined by about $3 billion to $543 billion, while the value of gold reserves dropped by roughly $4.5 billion. The fall came as the rupee traded near record lows, having weakened by more than 4 per cent since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict and the accompanying rise in energy prices.

The rupee has been under sustained pressure from higher crude oil and liquefied natural gas costs, wider hedging by importers and withdrawals by overseas investors from domestic equities. Brent crude has traded in the mid-$90 range, raising concern over India’s import bill because the country depends heavily on overseas energy supplies. Any prolonged disruption in Gulf shipping routes would add to inflation risks and intensify demand for dollars from refiners and importers.

The RBI has intervened through state-run banks to slow the currency’s decline, with traders indicating that the central bank has been uncomfortable with disorderly depreciation. The rupee was around 95 to the dollar this week after briefly sliding close to 97 in May. The central bank’s policy decision due this week is being watched for signals on whether it will rely mainly on liquidity tools, dollar sales and administrative measures, or consider a firmer monetary response.

The reported $12 billion gold-related action has drawn attention because India’s gold holdings have expanded in importance within the reserve portfolio. The central bank held about 880.5 tonnes of gold at the end of March, with gold accounting for nearly 17 per cent of total foreign exchange reserves. The physical stock has been broadly steady around 880 tonnes since mid-2025, suggesting that changes in the dollar value of gold reserves can reflect price movements, accounting effects and reserve operations as well as outright sales.

Gold has become a larger part of central bank reserves worldwide as monetary authorities seek diversification away from dollar assets and protection against geopolitical shocks. India has also moved more of its bullion to domestic vaults, reducing custody risks linked to overseas storage. That strategy had been seen as a long-term strengthening of sovereign reserve control, making any suggestion of sizeable gold liquidation politically and financially sensitive.

The government has moved separately to curb foreign exchange outflows. Import duties on gold and silver have been lifted sharply to about 15 per cent from 6 per cent, reversing earlier tariff relief and increasing the landed cost of precious metals. Rules around some bullion imports have also been tightened, while appeals have been made to households to reduce discretionary gold purchases.

Fuel prices have also been raised as state-run retailers pass through part of the increase in international crude costs. Petrol and diesel prices have risen after several years of limited retail adjustments, adding to household costs but reducing the burden on public-sector oil marketing companies. The step is intended to limit under-recoveries at fuel retailers and reduce the fiscal strain that would otherwise build if global prices stay elevated.

The combined policy response reflects the strain of a classic external shock: a weaker currency lifts import costs, higher oil prices widen the trade deficit, and investors demand higher compensation for risk. India enters this phase with substantial reserves, moderate inflation by past crisis standards and a financial system that remains broadly stable, but the speed of the rupee’s decline has revived comparisons with earlier episodes of currency stress.

For markets, the key question is whether the central bank can preserve confidence without exhausting liquid dollar assets or signalling panic. A calibrated use of reserves can smooth volatility, but heavy intervention may raise doubts if investors see it as a defence of a particular exchange-rate level. The RBI’s challenge is to keep currency markets orderly while allowing enough flexibility for the rupee to adjust to the oil shock and global risk aversion.

The state-run Ceylon Petroleum Corporation increased the price of 92-octane petrol to 434 Sri Lankan rupees a litre from 410 rupees, while auto diesel rose to 407 rupees from 392 rupees. The revision adds to household and transport costs at a time when the island’s recovery from its 2022 debt default remains exposed to global energy shocks, a weaker currency and pressure on public finances.

The adjustment follows the IMF executive board’s approval of fresh funding under Sri Lanka’s $2.9 billion Extended Fund Facility, agreed in early 2023 after the country ran out of foreign exchange and suspended repayment on about $46 billion in external debt. The programme requires cost-reflective pricing for fuel and electricity, stronger revenue collection, improved governance and protection for vulnerable households as subsidies are gradually unwound.

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake has told the IMF that fuel subsidies will be phased out by September. The pledge marks a politically sensitive step for a government facing pressure from consumers, transport operators and small businesses that remain scarred by the shortages and inflationary spiral of 2022. Fuel pricing has become a central test of the administration’s ability to maintain reform commitments without provoking a deeper squeeze on living standards.

Sri Lanka imports all its petroleum requirements and also relies on imported coal for part of its electricity generation. That exposure has sharpened the impact of turmoil in the Middle East, where higher crude prices and disruption risks have increased the cost of energy imports. Petrol and diesel prices have climbed sharply since late February, while electricity tariffs have also been raised as part of the effort to prevent losses at state-owned utilities from spilling into the budget.

The price increase comes amid renewed inflation concerns. Headline inflation rose to 5.4 per cent in April from 2.2 per cent in March, reversing part of the disinflation that had helped stabilise the economy after the crisis. Fuel and transport costs are expected to feed into food distribution, public transport fares and logistics charges, with lower-income households likely to feel the effects first.

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka responded to the pressure last week with an unexpected 100-basis-point increase in its benchmark policy rate, lifting the overnight policy rate to 8.75 per cent from 7.75 per cent. The move was designed to contain inflation expectations, limit rupee depreciation and support external stability, though it also raised concerns that tighter credit could slow investment and consumption.

Foreign reserves fell 3.8 per cent in April to $6.7 billion, reflecting higher import costs and currency pressure. The IMF disbursement is expected to help rebuild reserve buffers, but the broader challenge remains keeping the external account stable while meeting fuel, fertiliser, medicine and food import needs. A sustained rise in energy prices could widen the import bill and complicate the government’s debt-restructuring path.

Economic growth is projected to slow to about 3 per cent this year after expanding 5 per cent in 2025. Tourism, remittances and improved fiscal management have supported the rebound, but higher interest rates and energy costs could weigh on activity. Businesses that depend on transport and electricity are likely to pass on part of the cost increase, while exporters face mixed effects from a weaker rupee and higher domestic input prices.

The fuel adjustment also revives debate over the balance between reform and relief. Cost-recovery pricing is intended to stop Ceylon Petroleum Corporation and the power sector from accumulating losses that would eventually require budget support. Critics argue that faster price transmission can deepen hardship unless social protection systems are strengthened and targeted cash transfers reach households most exposed to rising food, transport and utility bills.

Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal’s visit to Ottawa and Toronto, accompanied by more than 100 business leaders, has added momentum to negotiations on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, which both sides see as central to expanding market access, investment flows and supply-chain cooperation. The visit comes after a prolonged freeze in trade discussions caused by the diplomatic dispute that followed the 2023 killing of Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia.

New Delhi and Ottawa are now working to rebuild trust through a structured commercial agenda covering energy, agriculture, critical minerals, technology, education and services. The scale of the business delegation travelling with Goyal underlines the attempt to shift the relationship from political caution to transaction-led engagement. A “Team Canada” delegation is expected to visit India later this year, signalling that both governments want to sustain ministerial and private-sector contact beyond formal negotiating rounds.

Bilateral trade remains below potential for two large economies with complementary strengths. Merchandise trade between the two countries stood at about $13.6 billion in 2025, with Canada exporting vegetables, mineral fuels, oils and wood pulp, while imports from India were led by precious stones and metals, machinery, pharmaceuticals and manufactured goods. Services trade, especially in technology, education, professional services and mobility-linked sectors, has grown into a significant part of the relationship.

The $50 billion target is ambitious but not beyond reach if negotiations produce tariff concessions, regulatory clarity and stronger investment protections. India is seeking reliable access to critical minerals, energy products, gas, fuel and agricultural inputs from Canada. Ottawa, for its part, sees India as a large growth market at a time when Canada is trying to diversify trade beyond its heavy dependence on the United States.

Energy is likely to become one of the pillars of the renewed partnership. Canada’s reserves of uranium, potash, natural gas and critical minerals fit India’s requirements for food security, clean energy expansion and industrial supply chains. Civil nuclear cooperation has returned to the agenda, with uranium supply discussions forming part of the broader effort to rebuild strategic confidence. India’s rising electricity demand and its plan to expand non-fossil energy capacity give Canada a commercial opening in nuclear fuel and related technologies.

Agriculture and fertilisers also carry strategic weight. Canada is a major supplier of potash, while India’s farm sector requires stable input supplies to support food production. Pulses have long been part of the trade basket, though pricing, phytosanitary rules and domestic market sensitivities have at times complicated flows. A broader agreement could provide more predictable rules, but both sides will have to manage farmer concerns and safeguard mechanisms carefully.

Technology and education offer another route to deeper engagement. Canada remains a major destination for students from India, while companies in both countries are exploring artificial intelligence, clean technology, fintech, cybersecurity and advanced manufacturing. Talent mobility will remain a sensitive but crucial component of any expanded economic relationship, especially as Canada adjusts immigration settings and India pushes for easier access for skilled professionals.

The political backdrop remains complex. Relations deteriorated sharply in 2023 after Canada alleged involvement by agents linked to New Delhi in Nijjar’s killing, an accusation India rejected. Diplomatic expulsions and a pause in trade talks followed, slowing a relationship that had already been marked by differences over separatist activism, security concerns and diaspora politics. The decision to restart CEPA negotiations reflects a pragmatic calculation that economic interests can create stabilising channels even when political trust is still being repaired.

Business groups on both sides are pressing for faster progress. Exporters want lower tariffs, simpler customs procedures and clearer standards rules. Investors are seeking safeguards, dispute-resolution mechanisms and sectoral openings. Canada’s pension funds and institutional investors already have exposure to infrastructure, real estate and financial assets in India, while companies from India are looking at Canadian opportunities in technology, mining, manufacturing and services.