RBI’s gold move tests rupee defences

Mounting pressure on the rupee has put the Reserve Bank of India’s reserve strategy under sharper scrutiny after a report indicated that the central bank may have sold about $12 billion worth of gold holdings to protect foreign currency assets from the fallout of the US-Iran conflict.

The reported move, if confirmed, would mark a significant shift in the composition of India’s external buffers at a time when oil prices, foreign portfolio outflows and import demand are combining to test the country’s balance of payments position. The RBI has not publicly confirmed any gold sale of that scale, and the latest available reserve data show a fall in the value of gold holdings rather than a definitive disclosure of physical bullion sales.

India’s foreign exchange reserves fell to $681.4 billion for the week ended May 22, down $7.5 billion from the previous week. Foreign currency assets declined by about $3 billion to $543 billion, while the value of gold reserves dropped by roughly $4.5 billion. The fall came as the rupee traded near record lows, having weakened by more than 4 per cent since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict and the accompanying rise in energy prices.

The rupee has been under sustained pressure from higher crude oil and liquefied natural gas costs, wider hedging by importers and withdrawals by overseas investors from domestic equities. Brent crude has traded in the mid-$90 range, raising concern over India’s import bill because the country depends heavily on overseas energy supplies. Any prolonged disruption in Gulf shipping routes would add to inflation risks and intensify demand for dollars from refiners and importers.

The RBI has intervened through state-run banks to slow the currency’s decline, with traders indicating that the central bank has been uncomfortable with disorderly depreciation. The rupee was around 95 to the dollar this week after briefly sliding close to 97 in May. The central bank’s policy decision due this week is being watched for signals on whether it will rely mainly on liquidity tools, dollar sales and administrative measures, or consider a firmer monetary response.

The reported $12 billion gold-related action has drawn attention because India’s gold holdings have expanded in importance within the reserve portfolio. The central bank held about 880.5 tonnes of gold at the end of March, with gold accounting for nearly 17 per cent of total foreign exchange reserves. The physical stock has been broadly steady around 880 tonnes since mid-2025, suggesting that changes in the dollar value of gold reserves can reflect price movements, accounting effects and reserve operations as well as outright sales.

Gold has become a larger part of central bank reserves worldwide as monetary authorities seek diversification away from dollar assets and protection against geopolitical shocks. India has also moved more of its bullion to domestic vaults, reducing custody risks linked to overseas storage. That strategy had been seen as a long-term strengthening of sovereign reserve control, making any suggestion of sizeable gold liquidation politically and financially sensitive.

The government has moved separately to curb foreign exchange outflows. Import duties on gold and silver have been lifted sharply to about 15 per cent from 6 per cent, reversing earlier tariff relief and increasing the landed cost of precious metals. Rules around some bullion imports have also been tightened, while appeals have been made to households to reduce discretionary gold purchases.

Fuel prices have also been raised as state-run retailers pass through part of the increase in international crude costs. Petrol and diesel prices have risen after several years of limited retail adjustments, adding to household costs but reducing the burden on public-sector oil marketing companies. The step is intended to limit under-recoveries at fuel retailers and reduce the fiscal strain that would otherwise build if global prices stay elevated.

The combined policy response reflects the strain of a classic external shock: a weaker currency lifts import costs, higher oil prices widen the trade deficit, and investors demand higher compensation for risk. India enters this phase with substantial reserves, moderate inflation by past crisis standards and a financial system that remains broadly stable, but the speed of the rupee’s decline has revived comparisons with earlier episodes of currency stress.

For markets, the key question is whether the central bank can preserve confidence without exhausting liquid dollar assets or signalling panic. A calibrated use of reserves can smooth volatility, but heavy intervention may raise doubts if investors see it as a defence of a particular exchange-rate level. The RBI’s challenge is to keep currency markets orderly while allowing enough flexibility for the rupee to adjust to the oil shock and global risk aversion.