Seoul keeps rates steady as risks rise

Bank of Korea left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.50 per cent on Friday, extending its policy pause to a seventh straight meeting as policymakers confronted a harder mix of rising price pressures, a weak won and a growth outlook darkened by higher energy costs and disruption linked to conflict in the Middle East.

The seven-member Monetary Policy Board said uncertainty had intensified and judged it appropriate to hold the base rate while assessing how the conflict, financial-market volatility and foreign-exchange swings feed through to the domestic economy. The central bank’s statement made clear that the policy dilemma has sharpened: inflation risks are moving up even as growth is expected to slow more than earlier forecast.

Governor Rhee Chang-yong, speaking after what Reuters reported was his final press conference before his term ends on April 20, said supply-side shocks from the Middle East were especially damaging for Asian economies reliant on imported energy. That matters acutely for South Korea, where policymakers are trying to prevent a renewed inflation cycle without choking activity at a time when sentiment has softened and some industries are already facing production constraints.

The rate hold had been widely anticipated. Reuters said all 31 economists in its poll expected no move at this meeting, reflecting a market consensus that the central bank had little room to ease and few grounds to tighten immediately. Instead, the decision underscored how monetary authorities in export-driven Asian economies are being forced to navigate a narrow path between external shocks and domestic fragilities.

At the centre of the debate is inflation. Official data showed consumer prices in March rose 2.2 per cent from a year earlier, up from 2.0 per cent in February, while core inflation, which excludes food and energy, also stood at 2.2 per cent. The Bank of Korea said petroleum prices had risen sharply and noted that short-term inflation expectations among the public edged up to 2.7 per cent. It now expects consumer inflation this year to exceed its February projection of 2.2 per cent by a meaningful margin, with core inflation also likely to come in above the earlier 2.1 per cent forecast.

That shift is important because the central bank had been able for months to argue that price growth was gradually stabilising near target. The worsening external backdrop has disrupted that narrative. The board said inflation is likely to move into the mid- to upper-2 per cent range as global oil prices and supply constraints lift import costs, though government price-stabilisation measures may soften part of the blow. Reuters reported that Seoul’s fuel-price caps, introduced last month for the first time in decades, helped restrain March inflation but are unlikely to provide a lasting shield if energy costs stay elevated.

Growth, meanwhile, is losing momentum. The central bank said the economy had been supported by strong exports, firmer consumption and continued job gains, but warned that downside pressure had increased since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. It expects expansion this year to come in below the 2.0 per cent forecast issued in February, as higher energy prices and supply bottlenecks offset support from semiconductor exports and a supplementary budget. That combination leaves the Bank of Korea confronting an uncomfortable form of policy tension: weaker activity alongside stronger inflation.

The won has added to the pressure. The central bank said the currency weakened into the 1,500-won range against the US dollar as investors moved into safer assets and foreign investors sold domestic equities, before recovering some ground after a temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran. A softer currency raises the local-currency cost of imported fuel and raw materials, complicating the inflation picture and limiting the case for any near-term rate cuts.

Financial markets reflected that cautious tone. Reuters reported that South Korea’s policy-sensitive three-year treasury bond futures erased early gains during the governor’s press conference, suggesting investors interpreted the message as more alert to inflation risks than to immediate growth support. Analysts cited by Reuters said the rebound in energy prices and the won’s weakness have narrowed the central bank’s room for manoeuvre, even if domestic demand still needs close watching.