“We notice there’s a little activity at Pickaxe. I would advise Iran not to get cute because we will have to hit them very hard,” Trump told a Republican midterm convention in Dallas, sharpening warnings he has issued since July about the fortified installation.
Trump did not describe the activity detected by the United States or present evidence that Iran had resumed uranium enrichment at the mountain. His remarks came as satellite analysis released on Wednesday pointed to a marked increase this year in construction and reinforcement work at the underground complex.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies said imagery from several satellite systems showed more road and construction activity at Pickaxe Mountain in 2026 than at any earlier point in the site’s development. Analysts identified hardened tunnel entrances, paved internal roads, reinforced access areas and the removal or flattening of excavation spoil.
The Washington-based research organisation said the visible changes suggested a transition from excavation towards probable internal construction and continued external reinforcement. It cautioned, however, that the imagery could neither confirm nor disprove claims that centrifuges or centrifuge components had been moved into the complex.
CSIS also said the available evidence did not indicate that the underground installation was yet capable of uranium enrichment, if enrichment is its intended purpose. It said the absence of a heightened internal security posture and of non-construction vehicles or equipment supported that assessment.
Pickaxe Mountain lies close to Natanz, one of the principal sites in Iran’s nuclear programme, and contains two deeply buried tunnel complexes cut into granite. Open-source estimates have placed sections of the facility roughly 80 to 100 metres underground, although analysts say its precise depth and internal design cannot be determined from satellite imagery alone.
That depth makes the site a difficult military target. CSIS said even the heaviest conventional US penetrator munitions could face substantial limitations against a deeply buried and reinforced complex, meaning an attack might damage or temporarily disable access without ensuring destruction of the underground facility.
Trump has repeatedly identified Pickaxe Mountain as a possible target as the United States and Israel continue military operations against Iran. He said last week that Washington might strike the site “very soon”, while stressing that US surveillance was tracking developments there closely.
His latest warning did not specify a timetable, military option or threshold that would trigger an attack. The White House also did not immediately provide details about the intelligence behind Trump’s assertion of fresh activity.
Iran has long maintained that its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes and has denied seeking a nuclear weapon. Western governments and Israel have questioned Tehran’s intentions because of its advanced uranium-enrichment capabilities and restrictions on international monitoring.
The warning comes at a politically sensitive moment for Trump, with the conflict increasingly intersecting with the US midterm campaign. Oil and gas prices have risen amid the fighting, adding pressure on households and giving Democrats another line of attack against Republicans before the November elections.
Trump used his Dallas appearance to defend the campaign against Iran, arguing that preventing Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon outweighed the economic costs associated with higher energy prices. He also predicted that oil prices would fall after the elections, though he offered no evidence for that forecast.
The International Atomic Energy Agency has continued seeking clarity over Iran’s nuclear activities and access to relevant facilities, with monitoring complicated by the conflict and damage to nuclear infrastructure. The status of material, equipment and underground sites remains central to international concern over whether Iran could restore sensitive nuclear work.
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