The disruption has become stark four years after ChatGPT’s launch. Writers who once handled a steady flow of essays, dissertations and coursework for clients in the United States and Britain say orders have dwindled as students increasingly use generative AI to produce assignments themselves. Researchers had estimated that at least 40,000 people in Nairobi were engaged in the business at its peak early this decade.
Teresios Bundi, 34, spent more than a decade in the trade after arriving in Nairobi for university in 2011. He estimates that he wrote more than 2,500 papers over 12 years, sometimes completing three assignments a day. After graduating with a public health degree in 2015, he turned essay writing into a business and charged about $40 to $70 a paper.
The income was far higher than conventional employment available to him. Bundi said the work paid at least five times what he could have earned in public health, allowing him to support his family and hire students to help meet demand. That business has since closed as AI-generated writing became cheap, fast and readily available to the same overseas customers who previously paid Kenyan freelancers.
The contraction was visible soon after generative AI entered mass use. A Kenyan writer identified as Collins said in 2023 that his monthly income had fallen from about $900-$1,200 to $500-$800 as assignments declined. Another student writer, Wade Brian, said his workload fell from as many as 60 assignments a month to fewer than 10 during one previously busy period.
Competition has also changed the work that remains. Some writers now edit AI-produced essays so they read more naturally or are less likely to be flagged by university detection systems. Others use AI to create first drafts and then rewrite them, reducing the time required for each job but also lowering the amount of human labour clients are willing to buy.
Alphline, a writer who entered the business in 2021, said she has continued to find work by combining AI-generated drafts with her own editing. Her experience contrasts with many former ghostwriters who have left the sector, showing that the technology has not eliminated every assignment but has substantially altered what clients pay humans to do.
The collapse carries wider significance for Kenya’s digital labour market, where online freelancing has been promoted as an employment route for graduates facing limited salaried opportunities. Kenya’s National Skills Development Policy describes gig work as an important avenue for independent workers and highlights the Ajira programme, which trains young people to access online jobs.
The International Labour Organization found in a 2024 study that writing, including academic and article writing, was prominent among Kenyan online freelancers because of strong English proficiency. It also found persistent problems including insufficient work, low earnings and weak social protection, underscoring the vulnerability of workers dependent on fluctuating digital platforms and foreign demand.
That vulnerability is spreading beyond essay writing. Former academic writer Alex Munyua moved into data labelling and social media moderation after ghostwriting weakened, only to find those opportunities contracting as well. Richard Eshilache, who said he employed more than 100 writers in 2022, shifted towards photo editing and data annotation but found the new work paid less.
AI had already disrupted another Kenyan online occupation before the essay market collapsed. Frida Mwangi, who had worked in transcription, said automated transcription software gradually reduced available assignments and pushed down wages. She later became an advocate for improved conditions for outsourcing workers.
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