The rebound matters because EAF steel has long struggled to gain ground in China despite official support for cleaner production. The route relies mainly on scrap rather than iron ore and coking coal, making it structurally less carbon intensive than the blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace model that still dominates the country’s steel industry. World Steel Association figures show the global production mix is far more tilted towards EAF than China’s, with electric-arc furnaces accounting for 28.6% of world crude steel output, while average carbon intensity for scrap-based EAF steelmaking is markedly below that of the conventional blast furnace route.
For Chinese mills, the immediate story is not only about decarbonisation but about economics. Higher finished-steel prices and steadier demand for construction steel have made it easier for some EAF operators to restart or raise run-rates after a prolonged spell in which many were squeezed by electricity bills, uneven scrap supply and patchy orders. Reuters reported in late February that warmer weather and the resumption of building activity typically support steel demand in March, while temporary production curbs in northern blast-furnace regions also helped firm futures prices. That backdrop has narrowed the gap between scrap-fed mills and traditional producers, even if the advantage remains fragile.
Yet the broader steel market in China remains difficult. Official and consultancy data cited by Reuters show crude steel output in 2025 fell to 960.1 million tonnes, down 4.4% from 2024 and below one billion tonnes for the first time since 2019. That decline reflected a managed effort by Beijing to address overcapacity, but it also underscored softer domestic demand and the long shadow cast by the property downturn. State-backed forecasts cited by Reuters indicate steel demand is expected to slip again in 2026 after contracting sharply in 2025, suggesting that EAF mills are recovering within a shrinking overall market rather than riding a broad-based industrial boom.
That tension helps explain why Beijing continues to press for structural change. The National Development and Reform Commission said in March that China would curb excess capacity in steel and other heavy industries in an orderly way, renewing a campaign that has featured repeatedly in official policy language. The cleaner EAF route fits that policy direction because it uses recycled feedstock and can reduce reliance on imported iron ore, but steelmakers still take their cues from margins first. When profits weaken, producers often retreat to whichever process best matches raw material costs, local power tariffs and available supply chains.
The environmental case for EAF expansion remains strong. Reuters reported last year that China had aimed to raise EAF steel’s share of crude steel production to 15% by 2025 and 20% by the end of the decade, but the actual share had been stuck around 10%. A 2025 review by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air said missing the 15% milestone would add more than 160 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions compared with a stronger shift towards cleaner steelmaking, while high electricity costs, unreliable scrap flows and financial strain had kept many EAF operators on the back foot.
China’s steel industry also faces an external pressure point: trade. Even as domestic demand softened, exports climbed to a record 119.02 million tonnes in 2025, up 7.5% from a year earlier, according to Reuters. That export surge helped keep mills running, but it also intensified complaints abroad over cheap supply and raised the risk of more trade barriers. For EAF producers, this creates a mixed picture. Strong export channels can support domestic steel prices and improve mill economics, yet any escalation in trade restrictions would feed back into the entire sector, including the greener producers now regaining confidence.
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