The forecast would mark a renewed decline from the 5.0 per cent recorded in August, when headline inflation increased from 4.6 per cent in July. Databank said a late-season improvement in food availability should help soften prices, particularly for staples whose supply constraints had contributed to volatility in previous months.
Market evidence during September pointed to substantial price declines for some important foods. Tomato prices in Accra fell by nearly 23 per cent from August, while cassava dropped by a similar margin and plantain and local rice also became cheaper. The movements were linked largely to increased seasonal supplies, although maize, onions and eggs moved higher, underscoring an uneven food-price picture.
The expected moderation would reverse August’s interruption of Ghana’s broader disinflation trend. Ghana Statistical Service data showed food inflation eased slightly to 3.0 per cent in August from 3.1 per cent in July even as headline inflation rose. Non-food inflation, by contrast, increased to 6.8 per cent from 6.3 per cent and accounted for about 71 per cent of overall inflation.
Fresh tomatoes were an exceptional source of pressure in August. Their year-on-year inflation rate reached 158.3 per cent and the item accounted for 23.1 per cent of the headline rate, according to the Statistical Service. The subsequent improvement in tomato supplies during September therefore provides a potentially significant source of downward pressure on food inflation.
Databank’s estimate is lower than at least one other published private-sector projection, highlighting uncertainty over the September reading. IC Insights has forecast headline inflation at about 5.1 per cent, with a margin of half a percentage point on either side. It expects better harvest supplies to cool food inflation but sees higher energy costs as a possible offset through non-food prices.
The divergence leaves the official Consumer Price Index release crucial for determining whether Ghana’s disinflation process regained momentum after August. The Statistical Service is responsible for compiling the index, which measures changes in prices across the household consumption basket.
Underlying price indicators have nevertheless remained relatively contained. The Bank of Ghana said after its September monetary policy meeting that most measures of core inflation had either eased or remained stable despite the increase in headline inflation to 5.0 per cent in August. It described underlying inflationary pressures as limited.
That assessment formed part of a broader picture of strong domestic activity alongside subdued inflation. The central bank said real gross domestic product expanded by 6.0 per cent in the second quarter, while its Composite Index of Economic Activity increased 14.9 per cent year on year in July. Business and consumer confidence were also near historical highs.
Inflation has fallen sharply on an annual basis. August’s 5.0 per cent rate was 6.5 percentage points below the 11.5 per cent recorded in August 2025, even though it represented a monthly acceleration from July. Average consumer prices also declined 1.0 per cent between July and August.
Domestic costs remain a key risk. Inflation for locally produced goods and services stood at 6.1 per cent in August, compared with 2.2 per cent for imported items. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels made the largest contribution to headline inflation, narrowly ahead of food and non-alcoholic beverages.
Producer prices also signalled some cost pressure before the September consumer reading. Producer price inflation increased to 4.4 per cent year on year in August from 4.0 per cent in July, while factory-gate prices rose 2.5 per cent month on month. Mining and energy-related activity was an important driver of the increase.
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