Oil advances as storm, Saudi attacks threaten supply

Oil prices climbed on Wednesday as traders assessed the risk of supply disruption from a developing Gulf of Mexico storm and escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, offsetting signs that more Middle East crude was reaching global markets.

Brent crude futures rose 93 cents, or 0.92%, to $101.51 a barrel by 0022 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 82 cents, or 0.92%, to $90.25.

US forecasters said a system forming in the Gulf of Mexico was expected to strengthen into the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 within two days, putting offshore oil and gas installations and coastal refining infrastructure potentially in its path.

Offshore areas exposed to the storm account for about 15% of US crude production and 5% of the country’s natural gas output. Six refineries could also be affected. Gulf Coast states hold roughly half of total US refining capacity of about 18.2 million barrels per day, making the storm’s track important for crude and fuel markets.

Chevron said it had begun evacuating non-essential personnel from some Gulf of Mexico offshore platforms as a precaution, while production continued at normal levels. The company said its onshore facilities were following storm-preparedness procedures.

KCM Trade chief analyst Tim Waterer described the developing system as an unwelcome complication for crude, pointing to the prospect of production and refining disruption while supply risks were already elevated elsewhere.

Middle East tensions provided a second source of support. Saudi Arabia’s aviation authorities said airports at Jazan and Najran were targeted on Monday evening as fighting intensified between Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces and the Iran-backed Houthis.

The Houthis also claimed further missile and drone attacks on targets including King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, Abha airport and military facilities. Saudi authorities said a missile was intercepted near Riyadh, while some Houthi claims could not be independently established.

The escalation has accompanied an offensive by Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces against Houthi positions near the strategically important Bab el-Mandeb waterway. Saudi air power has supported the campaign, increasing concern that the conflict could threaten energy infrastructure or shipping routes.

Those risks competed with evidence that physical supplies from the region were improving. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said flows through the kingdom’s East-West Pipeline had reached 5.8 million barrels per day by Tuesday, providing an important route for crude that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.

Vitol chief executive Russell Hardy said about 12 million barrels per day of crude and 2 million barrels per day of refined products had been leaving the Middle East on tankers over the previous seven to 10 days, indicating a recovery in regional flows.

OPEC+ producers Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman decided at an October 4 meeting to maintain their September required production levels for November. They said they would continue monthly reviews of market conditions, with their next meeting scheduled for November 1.

The US Energy Information Administration has meanwhile raised its oil price projections as diminished global inventories and disruptions associated with the conflict involving Iran tighten supplies. It expects Brent to average $105 a barrel during the fourth quarter of 2026 and $98 for the full year.

Inventory signals in the United States added support to Wednesday’s market. Industry data indicated US crude stocks fell by 2.09 million barrels in the week ended October 2, while gasoline inventories also declined and distillate stocks edged higher. Official government inventory figures were due later on Wednesday.

Oil markets entered the session after a volatile start to the week. Brent settled at $100.58 on Tuesday and WTI at $89.44 as improving Middle East exports and plans by Group of Seven economies to release emergency stocks restrained prices despite geopolitical concerns.

Refining margins remain elevated as disruptions have tightened supplies of diesel and other products. Analysts said refinery outages or storm-related interruptions along the US Gulf Coast could amplify that pressure even if the developing system causes only temporary production shutdowns.