Hormuz tanker attacks accelerate as oil flows recover

Iranian pressure on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has intensified as Gulf oil flows recover towards levels seen before the war, exposing the fragile security underpinning the rebound in global energy supplies.

UK Maritime Trade Operations has recorded nine attacks in the waterway so far in October, compared with 18 across the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf during all of September. Four of September’s incidents occurred in the final two days of the month, showing how sharply the pace has quickened.

The latest serious incident involved the Panama-flagged tanker On Peace, which was struck by a projectile off Oman on Tuesday. Oman’s Defence Ministry said the attack caused a fire and prompted the Royal Oman Air Force to evacuate 10 crew members to Khasab Hospital in Musandam.

India’s Ministry of External Affairs said 12 of the tanker’s 19 crew were injured, including 11 nationals of India. Seventeen crew members aboard the vessel were from India. The ministry condemned the attack and said the injured sailors were receiving treatment with assistance from Omani authorities.

No group has claimed responsibility for the On Peace strike, and Omani authorities did not identify an attacker. UKMTO alerts covering several other October incidents have likewise described vessels as being hit by unknown projectiles while investigations continue, making attribution of individual attacks uncertain despite the broader confrontation involving Iran.

The increased danger comes as producers have succeeded in restoring a large share of Gulf exports after severe disruption earlier in the conflict. Vortexa data showed oil flows from Gulf producers excluding Iran averaged 19.2 million barrels a day in September, more than 81 per cent of the 23.6 million barrels a day recorded before the war began on February 28.

Crude and condensate exports recovered more strongly, reaching about 91 per cent of prewar volumes. Kpler data showed the seven-day moving average for regional crude exports at 18.3 million barrels a day on September 30, with shipments exceeding prewar levels on 14 days during September.

Saudi Arabia has been central to the recovery, increasing shipments from both Gulf and Red Sea outlets. Producers have also relied on pipelines, short-haul tanker movements and ship-to-ship transfers outside the strait to keep crude moving despite the threat to vessels.

Those arrangements have reduced the immediate impact of security incidents on physical supply but have sharply increased transport costs. Baltic Exchange assessments showed earnings on the benchmark Middle East Gulf-to-China route above $1.2 million a day early this month, compared with a small fraction of that level before the conflict.

The renewed attacks threaten to test whether those costly logistics can sustain the recovery. Maritime security firm Marisks has warned that ships face an increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat as traffic rises. It has also raised the possibility that some projectiles are being launched into predetermined engagement areas rather than against individually selected merchant vessels.

UKMTO said on October 5 that a tanker entering the strait was hailed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps about 11 nautical miles north of Khasab and ordered to turn back or face being targeted. The master complied. That episode differed from projectile strikes because UKMTO explicitly identified the IRGC as issuing the warning.

Before the war, roughly 125 large commercial vessels a day used the strait, carrying oil, liquefied natural gas, refined products and other cargoes. The passage accounted for about one-fifth of global crude and LNG supply, leaving energy markets highly sensitive to interruptions.

Gas movements have also improved, although more slowly than crude shipments because LNG depends on a smaller fleet of specialised vessels. September LNG cargoes exiting Hormuz reached their highest level since February.

Shipping companies continue to limit exposure where possible. Many tankers crossing the strait have switched off digital tracking signals, complicating efforts to measure flows, while operators increasingly depend on satellite imagery and other vessel data to monitor traffic.