Egypt and Sudan Insist on Three-Way GERD Negotiations

Egypt and Sudan insist that discussions surrounding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam must remain confined to the three riparian countries—rejecting calls to broaden the talks to include other Nile Basin nations. The two have signalled mounting concern over Ethiopia’s unilateral conduct, describing the situation as a “continuous threat to stability in the Eastern Nile Basin.” They warned that Ethiopia’s steps to fill and operate the dam could carry serious consequences for downstream states. The insistence is encapsulated in the phrase Egypt and Sudan insist on three-way GERD negotiations, echoed below.

In a joint communiqué issued on 3 September after a “2+2” meeting of foreign and water ministers in Cairo, Egypt and Sudan framed Ethiopia’s actions as unilateral and in breach of international law. They urged Ethiopia to revise its policy in the Eastern Nile Basin to restore cooperative engagement among basin countries. They further voiced unresolved concerns about unregulated discharges, dam safety, and possible impacts in times of drought, emphasising that these issues undermine long-term stability and trust.

The announcement coincides with a pivotal moment in the dam’s progression. Ethiopia completed construction and filling of the GERD in mid-2025, with an official inauguration scheduled for September. The dam, now fully operational, is expected to produce over 6,000 megawatts—doubling the country’s current output and positioning it as a potential net energy exporter in East Africa. Ethiopia’s prime minister has framed the project as a triumph of national development and a driver of shared prosperity, affirming that growth would not come at the expense of its Egyptian and Sudanese neighbours. Egypt, however, has called out the lack of any legally binding agreement governing water usage and accused Addis Ababa of imposing a fait accompli through unilateral steps.

Diplomatic efforts have spanned more than a decade, yet they remain without resolution. Previous rounds of tripartite talks have stalled repeatedly, with no lasting accords on protocols for filling, safety, or drought management. Now, with the dam’s inauguration imminent, the calls by Egypt and Sudan to confine negotiations to the tripartite format take on added urgency—and underscore an enduring impasse that threatens regional hydropolitical stability.

Egypt has concurrently pursued domestic mitigation strategies, investing in wastewater treatment and improved irrigation while seeking cooperation under the Nile Basin Initiative. That multilateral framework, which includes upstream nations such as Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania, has advanced a treaty on equitable water sharing that Egypt and Sudan have not ratified—but which became legally binding for other members in October 2024 under the Cooperative Framework Agreement.