By Sushil Kutty
South Carolina’s Republican voters have to decide between Nikki Haley and Donald Trump. But where Nikki is “liked”, Donald is “loved”. And therein lies the rub for Haley, for whom winning her home state is a matter of prestige. However, prestige stands no chance against prejudice. South Carolina’s conservatives, the majority of them, are prejudiced in favour of Trump, doesn’t matter that Nikki was twice elected South Carolina Governor by these same Republicans. The Oval Office looks distant for Nikki Haley and Trump, as everybody knows, has a love-hate relationship with the White House.
So Haley was wonderful as governor — but Trump did great things as President, say even Nikki supporters. Trump t-shirts and MAGA hats outnumber Haley stuff. That is one measure of who is ahead, who will take the state, the first regular primary. Iowa and New Hampshire were only appetizers. Showing loyalty with t-shirts is an American election thing. In India, only candidate Rahul Gandhi sported a t-shirt and none of the people who tagged along with him now and before took a cue.
The South Carolina primary is set for February 24 and Haley is still to convince voters she is the present if Trump is the past. But chemistry is on Trump’s side. The former South Carolina governor comes out earnest, but she can’t beat Trump in charisma. Besides, his one-liners are simply “un-put-down-able”, they rock; voters hang on to his every first and last word. Also, Trump addresses “rallies” with thousands in attendance, Nikki Haley is the townhall-type. There is a difference.
Haley’s tragedy is Haley knows South Carolina would be the end of the road for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. A Trump victory is assured. For Haley, South Carolina is make or break, with more chances of break. The Republican Party has itself come to the conclusion that Haley should pick up the nearest available towel. And Haley has been told, nice and friendly, to back off.
But Nikki Haley is “Indian-origin” and since when has an Indian backed off from a good fight? Nikki Haley is not ready to quit. She prefers to remain Trump’s obstacle come what may. And she’s getting on Trump’s nerves, which signals what? Trump has done everything he could come up with to discourage Nikki Haley, Nimrata Randhava is not taking the bait.
Haley is convinced Trump will finally go away. It isn’t Haley who has been indicted and held hostage by a slew of career-ending charges; the man could be a convicted felon and nobody would care. Nikki Haley must have extra sensory perception, a sixth sense, Haley doesn’t say it openly, but she does leave the impression that she’s waiting for Trump to be jailed before November. A third consecutive Republican nomination for Trump would break Nikki Haley’s heart.
Besides, there are the big donors; a number of them, who are convinced Haley will prevail. They haven’t lost faith and Haley hasn’t either. Haley’s campaign is not ready to end Haley’s run, does not matter if the media have a different take. Most media have lost hope and are genuinely convinced that Haley, the media’s last hope, is “struggling” to make a fight of it. The 30 point lead Trump enjoys is simply unbeatable.
Haley and Haley’s campaign cannot even bank on the “undecided independents”. They, too, appear to have a yen for the 77-year-old Donald Trump. Is it her “Indian origin” which comes in the way? Cannot be because Nikki Haley herself has affirmed and reaffirmed that there is “no racism in America” much to the disgust of the millions who insist Donald Trump is a racist bigot and shouldn’t be allowed near the White House, not a second time.
However, at the same time, Trump is seen as “strong”; is Nikki Haley “strong”, will she be able to take on the swamp? The former President doesn’t have to prove; whereas the former governor has to. And she cannot unless she beats Trump in the primaries and gets the Republican Party’s nomination. Nikki Haley is up against unassailable odds and Donald Trump will be on a roll if Haley loses South Carolina to the man who had won South Carolina in the 2016 and 2020 Republican primaries, too.
In 2016, Donald Trump took South Carolina’s 50 delegates. It set him up for the Presidency which he finally got. Then the loser was another woman, Hillary Rodham Clinton. This time, too, it’s a woman. Trump’s record with women was never good. He has been getting the better of women in the Presidential elections and appears to be making a habit of it. (IPA Service)
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