Goldman Sachs Predicts Gold Could Surge to $4,900 by 2026

Goldman Sachs lifted its December 2026 gold price forecast from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce, citing strength in Western exchange-traded fund inflows and sustained central bank purchases.

Gold’s spot price hovered around $3,960 per ounce early on Tuesday, having earlier touched an intraday high of $3,977.19.

Goldman analysts expect central banks—particularly in emerging markets—to continue diversifying foreign-exchange reserves into gold, with forecast average purchases of 80 metric tons in 2025 and 70 tons in 2026. They argue ETF allocations in Western markets have room to expand beyond levels implied purely by interest-rate expectations, as private sector diversification intensifies. The bank describes the upside risks to its upgraded forecast as “still skewed to the upside.”

Gold’s run this year has been propelled by multiple structural drivers: escalating central bank accumulation, a softening U. S. dollar, and a surge in gold-backed ETF demand. The metal has climbed approximately 51 per cent in 2025.

Market participants are also pricing in a potential easing path for U. S. monetary policy. Goldman envisions a 100 basis point cut to the U. S. Federal Reserve’s funds rate by mid-2026, a move that would reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing bullion.

Analysts caution, however, that the forecast hinges on continuity in demand dynamics and macro trends. A prolonged strong dollar, persistent inflation, or a hawkish shift by the Fed could squeeze gold’s upside. Speculative positioning, while moderate, remains closely watched—though at present, the growth in ETF holdings appears anchored in fundamentals rather than momentum chasing.

Gold’s record-setting pace has also captured attention on the macro front. Analysts identify political gridlock in the U. S., heightened geopolitical uncertainty, and fragmentation among global economic blocs as further fuel for demand. Some observers argue that if confidence in traditional reserve assets weakens, the shift toward gold could accelerate beyond present expectations.

Other institutions have adjusted their outlooks in line with the trend. Deutsche Bank, for example, recently raised its 2026 forecast to $4,000 per ounce, citing central bank buying and dollar weakness.

In the physical markets, demand remains robust. China’s central bank continued net gold purchases for the 11th straight month, reinforcing its strategic accumulation posture. Dealers in Asia and the Gulf report steady uptake from sovereign and institutional clients, even as retail sentiment remains mixed due to price momentum.

Within the ETF space, inflows have been steady. Some fund managers anticipate further capital rotation into gold as investors seek a hedge amid volatile equities and fixed income segments. The relative smallness of the gold market implies even modest flows from large asset pools—such as U. S. Treasuries—can have outsized effects on price trajectories.

Miners and royalty companies are already reacting to the bullish outlook. Several gold producers have raised capital expenditure guidance and moved to hedge smaller proportions of their production, betting on sustained strength in pricing. Analysts expect merger and acquisition activity to intensify, especially among mid-tier firms seeking scale and exposure.

However, risks abound. A misstep in macro forecasts, delays in Fed easing, or an unexpected surge in inflation could erode demand. The balance between gold’s appeal as a safe haven and its lack of yield will remain a challenge under changing rate environments.