Iranian officials doubt US accord before November midterms

Iranian officials have privately voiced doubt that Tehran and Washington can reach an agreement ending hostilities and restoring normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz before the US midterm elections in November, even as Qatari mediators pursue indirect negotiations in New York.

The pessimism follows President Donald Trump’s rejection at the weekend of Iran’s seven-day proposal for reopening the waterway and restarting negotiations. Officials familiar with Tehran’s thinking said distrust between the sides remained deep and differences persisted over the sequence and scope of concessions.

Qatari mediators were expected to hold separate discussions with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and the US side as efforts continued to salvage diplomacy around an amended version of Tehran’s proposal. Washington and Tehran have not established that a settlement is close, and neither government has announced a breakthrough from the latest contacts.

Iran’s plan envisaged steps within seven days to end hostilities, restore maritime passage and begin negotiations on a settlement. Araghchi said at the United Nations on Friday that Tehran had conveyed the plan to Washington through Qatar and that implementation could begin once the United States accepted it.

Under the proposal, the United States would lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports, ease restrictions on Iranian oil sales and release frozen Iranian assets. Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and return to negotiations with Washington, including discussions covering its nuclear programme. Tehran has also sought a ceasefire extending to other regional fronts.

“The seven-day timeline will start as soon as the United States accepts this plan,” Araghchi told reporters at the UN. He said US actions required under the proposal could be completed within four or five days, allowing the strait to reopen on the sixth day and negotiations on a final agreement to start on the seventh.

Trump rejected the offer on Saturday, saying its terms were unacceptable, but subsequently indicated that further talks were expected. His administration has sought firmer Iranian commitments on nuclear issues and the reopening of the strait, while Tehran has insisted that sanctions and the maritime blockade must be addressed as part of the initial steps.

President Masoud Pezeshkian had earlier made clear that Tehran wanted an agreement before the November elections. “We don’t want it to get to the midterm elections,” he said during his visit to New York for the UN General Assembly, reflecting Iran’s preference for a faster diplomatic timetable.

That public urgency contrasts with the cautious assessment now emerging from officials involved in Tehran’s deliberations. Their pessimism centres on whether either side is prepared to make the first concession after months of conflict and failed attempts to stabilise the shipping route.

The Strait of Hormuz remains the central economic pressure point. Commercial traffic continues, but volumes remain substantially below normal levels, while restrictions and security risks have forced exporters and traders to rely on more expensive arrangements. The waterway is one of the world’s most important routes for oil and liquefied natural gas shipments from Gulf producers.

Energy markets have reflected the diplomatic uncertainty. Brent crude rose on Tuesday to above $106 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate traded above $93, as investors weighed the possibility that restrictions on Gulf shipments could persist. Higher transport and insurance costs have added to concerns about fuel prices and inflation.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have increased crude shipments, helping offset part of the disruption. September exports from major Middle Eastern producers reached about 12.8 million barrels a day, their highest level since February, although the confrontation around Hormuz remains a major risk to supplies.

Washington argues that Tehran must provide durable guarantees on its nuclear activities and maritime security before major economic restrictions are removed. Iranian officials, meanwhile, say negotiations cannot advance under military and economic pressure and have demanded credible assurances that diplomatic engagement will not be followed by renewed attacks.