Analysts at JPMorgan are forecasting that U. S. spot Solana exchange-traded funds will attract only about $1.5 billion in net inflows during their first year, substantially lagging behind the inflows seen in Ethereum-linked ETFs. The expectation comes even as the U. S. Securities and Exchange Commission is widely seen as poised to approve multiple Solana ETF applications in the days ahead.
JPMorgan’s projection, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, rests on multiple concerns, chief among them the weakening on-chain activity of Solana and investor fatigue in the altcoin space. The firm estimates that the figure could fall below $1.5 billion if headwinds intensify, noting weak demand in CME Solana futures markets and stiff competition from diversified crypto index funds as key constraints.
Network metrics underscore that caution. Daily transaction volume on Solana has dropped to approximately 64 million, down nearly 50 percent from its July peak, a sign that user and developer usage may be waning. Some analysts suggest that capital is rotating toward rival chains such as BNB Chain and toward broader index products, rather than concentrated bets on Solana itself.
Bitwise Asset Management, one of the prominent ETF hopefuls, has updated its application to include “staking” in the fund’s name and set a sponsor fee of 0.20 percent—among the lowest for crypto ETFs. The amendment also promises a waiver for the first three months and for up to $1 billion in assets under management, a signal of aggressive positioning against peers.
Other applicants include VanEck, 21Shares, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, and Fidelity, whose applications carry staggered decision deadlines ranging from October through April 2026. Following the SEC’s adoption of a generic listing standard for digital-asset ETFs, certain filings have been restructured to comply with the revised framework—though a handful were asked to withdraw or amend submissions.
The regulatory picture is complicated by the ongoing federal government shutdown, which has forced the SEC to operate with a skeletal staff and slowed processing of registrations and rule changes. Observers warn that even if the SEC signals approval, practical listing and launch may be delayed until staffing returns to normal levels.
Market sentiment, however, appears largely bullish on the regulatory outcome. Prediction markets and analysts now price the probability of Solana ETF approval at 90 to 99 percent, citing precedent from the Bitcoin and Ethereum cases and the existence of a CME futures contract as enablers.
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