Provisional vessel-tracking data from Kpler showed regional crude exports exceeded the pre-war benchmark on September 24 and from September 27 to September 29. Daily shipments ranged between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels during those periods, compared with an average of about 18 million barrels per day between March 2025 and February 2026.
The seven-day moving average stood at 18.5 million barrels per day on October 1, above the earlier benchmark. Kpler’s measure covers crude moving through the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea, exports from terminals and ship-to-ship transfers conducted in the Gulf of Oman.
Broader energy shipments also strengthened. Crude, refined oil products, chemicals and non-gas liquids together averaged 22.4 million barrels per day in the seven days to September 30. Liquefied natural gas cargoes leaving through Hormuz rose in September to their highest monthly level since February, according to the shipping data.
The figures indicate that Gulf producers and shipping operators have restored substantial volumes despite security risks from the US-Israeli war with Iran. Hormuz remains critical to global energy supplies, while producers have increasingly used alternative export routes and transfers to reduce their exposure to the waterway.
The rebound therefore reflects both higher tanker activity and the growing use of alternative routes designed to keep Gulf barrels moving overseas.
The recovery has coincided with a renewed series of attacks on merchant vessels. Maritime intelligence firm Marisks said at least seven incidents had been recorded in and around Hormuz, raising concern about tanker safety along one of the world’s busiest energy corridors.
The very large crude carrier Kazimah III was struck by an unidentified projectile while operating in the strait on October 1, causing a fire aboard the vessel. Marisks said all crew members were safe and were subsequently evacuated.
Kpler tracking data showed the tanker last unloaded two million barrels of Kuwaiti crude at Ras Markaz on Oman’s coast on September 17. The incident highlighted continuing risks as export volumes returned towards pre-war levels.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency has recorded at least one attack a day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2, reinforcing warnings to commercial operators.
Marisks assessed the threat to merchant shipping as heightened and increasingly unpredictable as traffic increased. Its analysis indicated that some incidents might not involve individual vessels being deliberately selected, but could result from weapons being launched into predetermined engagement areas and acquiring available radar signatures.
That assessment leaves ships exposed simply by being within a danger zone when a weapon is active, complicating route planning and risk management for tanker operators. The increase in traffic can also put more vessels within potential engagement areas as energy shipments recover.
The export figures carry particular significance because Hormuz normally handles a large share of internationally traded crude and liquefied natural gas. Before hostilities began, about 125 large commercial vessels a day typically used the strait, including oil tankers, gas carriers, bulk carriers and container ships. Energy moving through the passage represented roughly one-fifth of daily global crude oil and LNG supply.
Shipping data nevertheless provide an incomplete picture of actual traffic. Kpler’s figures do not include vessels that may have crossed Hormuz after switching off their Automatic Identification System transponders, a practice used by some operators to reduce visibility in high-risk waters.
Oil markets have remained sensitive to changes in Gulf shipping and regional security. Brent crude stayed above $100 a barrel as traders weighed recovering Middle East supply against the possibility of further disruption to tankers and energy infrastructure.
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