Oil market jolted as US sanctions squeeze Russian supply flows

Oil prices shot up by around 3% Thursday, driven by fresh US sanctions on Russia’s top oil producers and signs that major buyers are rethinking their purchases. Brent crude futures rose to approximately $64.53 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate climbed to about $60.39.

The sanctions, targeting Rosneft and Lukoil, mark a marked escalation by the US in response to Russia’s war-time exports. The measures were accompanied by a US warning that further action could follow unless Moscow commits to a cease-fire.

A key knock-on effect: Indian refiners, including state-owned entities, have begun reviewing trade documents to ensure they are not sourcing crude directly from the sanctioned suppliers. With India having become one of the largest importers of discounted Russian oil following Western withdrawals, the scale of this review is significant.

The sanctions underscore a new risk premium in the oil market. Unlike previous rounds of sanctions—which largely constrained financing, insurance and shipping without substantially affecting physical oil flows—this move seeks to directly curtail output from Russia’s two largest producers. Rosneft and Lukoil collectively account for a large share of Russian crude exports and fuel the Kremlin’s budget.

Analysts caution, however, that while the immediate reaction has been sharp, structural supply disruption is not guaranteed. Russia retains significant production capacity and a sophisticated network of intermediaries and a “shadow fleet” of tankers that have helped maintain exports despite earlier sanctions. Nevertheless, the combination of curtailed Russian supply and potential reductions in purchases by major refiners sets the scene for tighter market conditions.

In India, refiners such as Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation are scrutinising bills of lading and cargo origins to ensure compliance. India imported roughly 1.7 million barrels per day of Russian crude in the first nine months of the year, predominantly via intermediaries rather than directly from Rosneft or Lukoil. The new sanctions give insurers, banks and traders until 21 November to wind down transactions involving the sanctioned firms.

The US move also dovetails with other sanctions developments: the EU approved a 19th package targeting Russia’s energy exports, including a ban on Russian liquefied natural gas imports and restrictions on shadow-fleet tankers. The combined effect is to intensify pressure on Russia’s energy supply chains.

From a market-demand vantage point, the worry is whether alternative sources can swiftly fill any gap. OPEC+ producers have some spare capacity but not enough to instantly offset a major Russian shortfall. Meanwhile, the US inventory situation added fuel to the rally: US crude stockpiles declined unexpectedly, reinforcing supply-tightness perceptions.

Energy-market specialists say the key factors to watch include India’s crude-import strategy, China’s stock-building trends and how aggressive Russia’s response will be—whether via production cuts or leveraging its ties with China and others. One observer noted the sanctions could be “a knee-jerk reaction” rather than a structural pivot, given Russia’s past ability to maintain volumes despite sanctions.

Purchasers of Russian crude face a growing compliance burden. Firms must navigate insurance exclusions, shifting shipping patterns and potential secondary sanctions from the US. Some refiners may opt to ramp up purchases from the US Gulf and other non-Russian sources, which could reorient trade flows and raise Atlantic-coast pricing.