The currency came under pressure after Brent crude held above $100 a barrel amid continuing tensions in West Asia, reinforcing worries about higher energy costs for a country that imports more than three-quarters of its crude oil requirements. The rupee had settled at 95.1050 against the dollar on Wednesday after touching 95.2250 during the session.
Dealers said demand for dollars from oil importers, corporate debt repayments and hedging activity added to the pressure. State-run banks were also seen supplying dollars during trading, an action market participants associated with efforts by the Reserve Bank of India to limit excessive volatility in the foreign-exchange market.
Brent crude traded around $101-$102 a barrel during Asian hours after crossing the $100 mark on Wednesday. The move followed renewed military tensions involving the United States and Iran and heightened concern about shipping and energy supply through the Gulf, including routes linked to the Strait of Hormuz.
Higher oil prices are particularly significant for the rupee because petroleum imports are paid largely in dollars. A sustained rise in crude can widen India’s trade deficit, increase demand for foreign currency from refiners and add to inflationary pressure, creating a less favourable backdrop for the local currency.
The rupee has lost roughly 0.7 per cent over the previous two sessions, with traders saying the effect of higher oil prices has become more visible after the currency had initially shown resilience. The movement has also coincided with caution across Asian markets and pressure on domestic equities.
Benchmark share indices were subdued on Thursday after suffering sharp losses in the previous session. The Sensex had dropped 813.35 points, or 1.08 per cent, on Wednesday to close at 74,764.23, while the Nifty 50 fell 203.60 points, or 0.86 per cent, to 23,431.50. The sell-off reflected concern that expensive crude could complicate the inflation and growth outlook.
The Reserve Bank has intervened intermittently in the currency market during periods of sharp rupee weakness. Traders said dollar sales by state-run banks helped the currency recover from Wednesday’s intraday low, although market participants expected central-bank support to restrain volatility rather than reverse pressure created by oil prices and capital flows.
Foreign-exchange dealers were also monitoring overseas portfolio movements. Expectations of capital outflows and demand linked to corporate payments have increased near-term dollar requirements, while the dollar index remained close to 99 against a basket of major currencies, offering only limited relief to emerging-market currencies.
The rise in crude has revived concern over India’s external balances. A higher oil import bill can feed into the current-account deficit if export earnings and other inflows do not offset the additional cost. It can also increase costs for transport, manufacturing and other energy-intensive sectors, depending on the extent to which international prices are passed through domestically.
Domestic fuel prices have so far remained comparatively insulated from the latest jump in international crude, but refiners and oil-marketing companies face greater pressure when global prices rise sharply while retail prices are unchanged. That gap can affect corporate margins and, if sustained, increase the broader fiscal and inflationary policy challenge.
Bond and equity markets are also watching the oil move for its implications for monetary policy. Higher imported energy costs can make inflation management more difficult, while weaker risk appetite may intensify foreign portfolio selling. Traders said those factors could keep the rupee volatile even if the central bank continues to provide dollar liquidity during periods of disorderly movement.
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