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Rising oil prices linked to the war involving Iran are creating fresh economic strain for Indonesia just as millions prepare for the annual Eid al-Fitr travel surge, placing President Prabowo Subianto’s administration under mounting pressure to shield consumers from higher fuel costs.

Energy markets have been rattled by escalating conflict across the Persian Gulf, where attacks on shipping routes and oil infrastructure have disrupted global crude supplies. A large share of the world’s petroleum exports passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime corridor connecting Gulf producers with international markets. Disruption to tanker traffic through this chokepoint has pushed benchmark crude prices sharply higher, triggering fuel price increases across Asia and raising fears of supply shortages in import-dependent economies.

Indonesia faces particular vulnerability because it relies heavily on imported energy. Around a quarter of its crude oil and roughly a third of liquefied petroleum gas supplies originate in the Middle East. Shipping disruptions in the Gulf have already complicated trade flows, with tanker movements slowed by security risks and insurance costs rising for vessels operating in the region. Market volatility has driven crude prices beyond the psychological threshold of $100 per barrel, fuelling concern that further escalation could drive them even higher.

The timing of the price shock has heightened the challenge for Jakarta. Eid al-Fitr, marking the end of Ramadan, triggers one of the largest annual travel movements in the country as families journey from major cities to hometowns across the archipelago. State energy company Pertamina anticipates gasoline demand during the holiday period to climb by more than 10 per cent, intensifying pressure on supply chains already strained by global market turbulence.

Authorities have attempted to reassure the public that domestic fuel supplies remain sufficient. Officials say government stockpiles and logistics networks can support the expected surge in consumption during the festive season. At the same time, policymakers have signalled that subsidised fuel prices will remain unchanged until the Eid holidays conclude, a move designed to prevent abrupt increases in transport costs during the peak travel period.

Holding prices steady carries significant fiscal implications. Indonesia already devotes substantial resources to energy subsidies, allocating more than 380 trillion rupiah in the state budget to keep fuel and electricity costs manageable for households and businesses. Sustaining those subsidies while global oil prices rise could widen the fiscal deficit or force adjustments elsewhere in the budget.

Economists warn that prolonged turbulence in global oil markets may reverberate across the broader economy. Higher crude prices increase the cost of imports and can erode Indonesia’s trade balance, particularly because the country has transitioned from being an oil exporter to a net importer over the past two decades. Analysts estimate that each $10 increase in the price of oil could shave hundreds of millions of dollars from the country’s trade surplus while raising domestic inflationary pressures.

Currency markets have already reacted to the geopolitical shock. The rupiah has faced downward pressure amid investor concerns about rising energy import costs and potential fiscal strain from expanded subsidies. A weaker currency makes fuel imports more expensive, compounding the burden on state finances and increasing the risk that domestic prices may eventually need to adjust.

Officials are exploring alternative strategies to mitigate the impact. One approach involves diversifying crude imports away from the Middle East by securing additional shipments from suppliers such as the United States and other regions less affected by the conflict. Authorities are also considering longer-term measures including accelerated blending of biofuels and the expansion of renewable energy capacity to reduce dependence on imported oil.

Energy security has become a central concern for policymakers across Southeast Asia as the Gulf crisis unfolds. Countries throughout the region rely heavily on imported petroleum and have limited capacity to absorb sustained price shocks. Governments have begun introducing conservation measures, adjusting subsidies, and seeking alternative suppliers as they attempt to stabilise domestic markets.

Indonesia’s logistical challenges are magnified by its geography. The archipelago spans more than 17,000 islands, making fuel distribution complex even during stable market conditions. Sudden shifts in global prices can ripple quickly through domestic supply chains, affecting transportation costs, food prices, and broader consumer inflation.

Political pressures add another layer of complexity for the administration. Public sensitivity to fuel prices has historically been high, and previous attempts to reduce subsidies have sparked protests and social unrest. Managing the current crisis therefore requires balancing fiscal prudence with the need to maintain social stability and support economic growth.

Market analysts say the duration of the Middle East conflict will determine how severe the economic impact becomes. If disruptions to shipping lanes and energy infrastructure persist, global crude supplies could tighten further, pushing prices to levels that strain government budgets and household finances alike. A prolonged crisis could also prompt broader shifts in energy policy, encouraging faster investment in domestic energy resources and renewable alternatives.

New Delhi has pressed Tehran to allow more India-bound vessels to cross the Strait of Hormuz after two liquefied petroleum gas carriers carrying critical fuel supplies cleared the strategic waterway, highlighting the vulnerability of energy flows through one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints.

Officials confirmed that two Indian-flagged LPG carriers, Shivalik and Nanda Devi, passed through the strait with cargo bound for ports in Gujarat, transporting roughly 92,700 tonnes of cooking gas. The shipments represent more than a day’s requirement for household LPG consumption, providing partial relief amid tightening supplies.

Government representatives indicated that discussions with Iranian authorities are continuing to secure safe transit for additional tankers waiting in the Persian Gulf. More than twenty vessels carrying crude oil and gas destined for India have been held up near the waterway during the standoff, raising concerns over prolonged disruptions to fuel deliveries.

The Strait of Hormuz, situated between Iran and Oman, handles about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Any disturbance along this narrow corridor has the potential to reverberate across global energy markets and shipping routes. Escalating tensions across West Asia have already led to attacks on several vessels and heightened security risks for commercial shipping in the region.

Iran’s decision to permit the two LPG carriers to sail through the strait marked an exception to restrictions imposed after military action targeting Iranian infrastructure triggered a broader confrontation. Tehran has maintained that vessels from most countries can navigate the passage but warned that ships from states viewed as hostile could face restrictions or heightened scrutiny.

Diplomatic engagement between New Delhi and Tehran played a role in securing the initial transit. Conversations between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian, along with discussions between foreign ministers, focused on safeguarding energy shipments and the safety of nationals in the conflict-affected region.

India depends heavily on Middle Eastern suppliers for its energy needs. About 90 per cent of the country’s imported LPG originates from the region, while a substantial share of crude oil imports also passes through the Strait of Hormuz. That reliance has made the stability of the shipping lane central to the country’s energy security strategy.

Officials from the shipping ministry confirmed that Indian authorities are coordinating with regional partners and monitoring maritime traffic closely. Naval vessels deployed in the Gulf under Operation Sankalp have been keeping watch over merchant ships heading towards the subcontinent, providing situational awareness and escort support where necessary.

Energy analysts say the partial reopening of the route for Indian cargo illustrates the delicate balance between geopolitical confrontation and commercial necessity. Countries reliant on Gulf hydrocarbons have sought diplomatic channels to keep trade flowing even as military tensions complicate navigation in the region.

Oil markets reacted sharply to the conflict surrounding the strait, with benchmark crude prices surging amid fears of prolonged disruption to supply. Traders remain wary that even isolated incidents could affect tanker movements through the corridor, where narrow shipping lanes and heavy traffic leave little room for error.

The two LPG carriers now sailing toward the western coast highlight the importance of maintaining uninterrupted access to the strait. With domestic demand for cooking gas remaining high, authorities have prioritised household supply chains while assessing contingency measures for industrial users if shipments continue to face delays.

Shipping industry figures note that vessels have increasingly adopted precautionary routes or delayed departures until security conditions improve. Insurance costs for tankers operating in the Gulf have also climbed, reflecting the heightened risk environment created by missile strikes, drone attacks and naval deployments in surrounding waters.

Strategic calculations extend beyond immediate fuel deliveries. India has been strengthening diplomatic engagement with Gulf producers and maritime partners to ensure continued energy access during periods of instability. The country has also expanded storage capacity and diversified crude sources over the past decade to mitigate supply shocks.

Even with those measures, the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical artery for trade between the Gulf and Asia. Any sustained restriction would affect not only India but also large importers such as China, Japan and South Korea, which depend on the same route for oil and gas shipments.

By K Raveendran #Oil markets have entered a phase of acute uncertainty as military escalation involving strikes on Iran and the resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz begin to reverberate through global energy supply chains. Within just over a week of the disruption, more than 12 million barrels of oil equivalent per day of […]

The article Analysts See Prolonged War Cutting Up To 70% Of Crude Output appeared first on Latest India news, analysis and reports on Newspack by India Press Agency).

By Nitya Chakraborty As the U.S. Israel war against Iran entered its fourteenth day on Friday March 13, in the diplomatic corridors in the UN headquarters in New York and in other major capitals including the EU headquarters in Brussels, speculation has started on what can be the likely stand of Iran’s two allies China […]

The article China, Russia Join Hands To Move Cautiously In Defending Their Ally Iran In War Against U.S. appeared first on Latest India news, analysis and reports on Newspack by India Press Agency).

By T.N. Ashok NEW YORK: Let’s be blunt about what’s actually happening in the current no holds barred war between Iran and US-Israel combine. The United States and Israel have been bombing Iran for thirteen straight days. Cruise missiles, precision strikes, relentless sorties. The kind of firepower that flattened cities in Iraq within weeks and […]

The article After 13 Days Of Iran War, Trump And Netanyahu Are Learning Bitter Lesson appeared first on Latest India news, analysis and reports on Newspack by India Press Agency).

Tokyo plans to release about 80 million barrels from its emergency stockpiles, equivalent to roughly 45 days of domestic consumption, according to government officials. The decision is designed to stabilise fuel supplies and dampen price pressures as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — a key artery for global energy trade — has been severely disrupted by the conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel.

Takaichi said Japan would move ahead with the release rather than wait for coordinated international action, reflecting concerns that prolonged disruption could tighten supplies for import-dependent Asian economies. Officials indicated that private-sector reserves would be drawn down first, followed by state stockpiles, allowing domestic refiners to maintain operations and ensure sufficient petroleum product supply to the market.

Energy security has become an urgent priority for Tokyo as nearly all of its crude imports originate from Middle Eastern producers such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar. Around 70 per cent of that oil typically travels through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that normally handles roughly one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil trade.

The ongoing conflict has sharply reduced tanker traffic through the strait after missile and drone attacks targeted vessels and infrastructure across the region. Shipping companies have diverted or halted voyages, leaving more than a hundred tankers anchored outside the corridor while insurers raised war-risk premiums. Oil prices have surged above $100 a barrel amid fears of prolonged supply disruption and escalating geopolitical tensions.

Japan’s move also comes as the International Energy Agency considers one of the largest coordinated releases of emergency oil reserves in history. Member countries of the agency have discussed releasing hundreds of millions of barrels to counter supply losses triggered by the conflict and calm volatile energy markets.

Officials in Tokyo signalled that the unilateral step could be followed by participation in a broader international release if the crisis deepens. Policymakers argue that acting quickly could prevent domestic fuel shortages and limit the economic damage of rising energy costs.

Economic pressure is mounting across Japan as oil and liquefied natural gas prices climb. The country imports the vast majority of its energy resources, leaving it highly vulnerable to geopolitical shocks. Higher fuel costs have already begun to affect industrial production, with petrochemical producers scaling back output and transport costs rising across supply chains.

The surge in energy prices poses a challenge for Takaichi’s government, which has pledged to strengthen economic growth while managing inflation and stabilising household costs. Economists warn that sustained oil prices above $140 per barrel could slow economic expansion and revive fears of stagflation in a country already grappling with a fragile recovery.

Energy analysts say the planned release from strategic reserves may provide short-term relief but will not fully offset the scale of disruption if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained. The waterway normally carries about 20 million barrels of oil each day, linking Gulf producers to major Asian consumers including Japan, China and South Korea.

Japan maintains one of the world’s largest emergency oil stockpiles. Combined government and private reserves are estimated to cover more than 200 days of consumption, giving authorities significant flexibility during supply shocks. Such reserves are designed precisely for crises triggered by geopolitical events or natural disasters that threaten global energy flows.

Government officials say the release will be phased to ensure a stable supply chain and avoid sudden market distortions. Domestic refiners are expected to receive the first shipments from storage facilities, allowing them to continue processing crude into petrol, diesel and other fuels.

The last major release of strategic reserves by Japan occurred during the global energy turmoil following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when coordinated action among advanced economies sought to stabilise crude markets and ease inflationary pressure worldwide.

Current circumstances, however, present a more complex challenge because of the geographic concentration of supply risks. The Middle East remains the dominant source of Japan’s oil imports, and prolonged instability in the region could reshape energy strategies for Asia’s largest economies.

Policymakers in Tokyo have begun exploring longer-term measures to reduce exposure to supply shocks. Discussions include expanding renewable energy capacity, diversifying import sources and accelerating the restart of nuclear reactors that were shut down after the Fukushima disaster.

Supporters of nuclear power argue that restoring more reactors could lower dependence on imported fossil fuels and help shield the economy from geopolitical turbulence in global energy markets. Opponents remain cautious, citing safety concerns and public resistance in several regions.

By K Raveendran Uncertainty surrounding the trajectory of the Iran war has unsettled global oil markets, producing dramatic price swings that underline the fragility of energy supply expectations in a period of geopolitical stress. Within a matter of days, benchmark crude prices have oscillated sharply between levels approaching $120 per barrel and dips into the […]

The article Wild Swings In Petroleum Prices May Be An Exaggerated Response appeared first on Latest India news, analysis and reports on Newspack by India Press Agency).