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The backdrop is a bruising spell for the rupee. The currency sank to record lows in March as conflict-linked fears over energy supplies drove oil prices higher and triggered capital outflows from domestic assets. That slide left the central bank confronting a familiar dilemma: allow the exchange rate to absorb the shock or step in more forcefully to curb disorderly moves in a country heavily exposed to imported crude. Reuters reported that the rupee hit a record low around mid-March before the Reserve Bank stepped up support measures as traders fretted over the growth and inflation fallout from elevated oil prices.

Against that backdrop, the central bank moved on March 27 to tighten rules around banks’ foreign-exchange exposure. It imposed a $100 million cap on net open dollar-rupee positions in the onshore market and restricted banks’ ability to deal in non-deliverable forwards, measures aimed at curbing arbitrage between local and offshore markets that officials believed had become destabilising. Governor Sanjay Malhotra has since said the steps were temporary rather than a long-term retreat from market development or rupee internationalisation, but the regulatory intent was clear: volatility linked to rapidly expanding positions would no longer be tolerated.

Bloomberg reported on Sunday that a senior Reserve Bank official criticised market makers for aggravating the rupee’s weakness during the Middle East tensions, reinforcing the view that policymakers see some trading strategies not merely as opportunistic but as harmful to market functioning. Bloomberg had earlier quoted Deputy Governor T. Rabi Sankar as saying the arbitrage build-up led to an “artificial drying up” of dollar supply in the market, affecting prices. That language is notable because it suggests the regulator believes the issue went beyond normal speculative behaviour into a form of distortion that reduced liquidity when it was needed most.

Market participants have broadly accepted that the positions were sizeable. Reuters, citing industry estimates and clearing data, said consensus had settled around roughly $40 billion of arbitrage exposure, much of it built across the onshore and non-deliverable forward markets. By early April, banks had exited the bulk of those trades ahead of the Reserve Bank’s April 10 deadline. Clearing house data pointed to around $36 billion in NDF trades between April 1 and April 7, seen largely as part of the unwind. That process helped support the rupee at points, but it also created other distortions, including sharp moves in forward premiums and strained hedging conditions for importers.

For companies exposed to foreign-currency liabilities, the clean-up has been costly. Reuters said one-year dollar hedging costs jumped sharply, at one point posting the steepest rise since the global financial crisis, as importers rushed to lock in cover and market liquidity thinned. That matters because the regulatory cure, while aimed at curbing speculative pressure, can tighten financing and risk-management conditions for genuine commercial users. It is one reason some dealers have privately argued that while the central bank was justified in tackling excessive positioning, abrupt curbs can deepen dislocations in a market that depends on continuous two-way activity.

Still, the Reserve Bank appears willing to accept short-term disruption in exchange for regaining control of the policy signal. The rupee rallied through parts of early April as arbitrage positions were unwound and a temporary US-Iran ceasefire drove oil lower, with the currency at one stage strengthening into the 92-93 range against the dollar. Yet that recovery proved fragile. On April 9, the rupee slipped again as doubts over the truce resurfaced, Brent crude rebounded and wider risk sentiment weakened. For policymakers, that sequence underscored how quickly external shocks can overwhelm domestic market plumbing if positioning is allowed to build unchecked.

Broader lessons are now emerging for the financial system. One is that India’s increasingly connected currency market, spanning domestic forwards, exchange-traded futures and offshore NDFs, can improve price discovery in calm conditions but amplify stress when geopolitical shocks hit. Another is that the Reserve Bank remains prepared to intervene not only through spot-market support but also through conduct-based regulation when it thinks market behaviour is aggravating weakness. That stance may temper speculative excess, but it also raises questions about how much freedom banks will have to intermediate risk in future episodes of volatility.

By Nitya Chakraborty After getting political and diplomatic advantage from the latest US-Iran ceasefire, China has started its preparation for hosting the U.S. President Donald Trump in its crucial summit in Beijing on May 14 and 15 this year. Earlier the summit was scheduled for March 31 and April 1 but Trump postponed that after […]

The article Chinese President Xi Jinping Launches Major Offensive On Taiwan Before May Summit With Trump appeared first on Latest India news, analysis and reports on Newspack by India Press Agency).

The seven-member Monetary Policy Board said uncertainty had intensified and judged it appropriate to hold the base rate while assessing how the conflict, financial-market volatility and foreign-exchange swings feed through to the domestic economy. The central bank’s statement made clear that the policy dilemma has sharpened: inflation risks are moving up even as growth is expected to slow more than earlier forecast.

Governor Rhee Chang-yong, speaking after what Reuters reported was his final press conference before his term ends on April 20, said supply-side shocks from the Middle East were especially damaging for Asian economies reliant on imported energy. That matters acutely for South Korea, where policymakers are trying to prevent a renewed inflation cycle without choking activity at a time when sentiment has softened and some industries are already facing production constraints.

The rate hold had been widely anticipated. Reuters said all 31 economists in its poll expected no move at this meeting, reflecting a market consensus that the central bank had little room to ease and few grounds to tighten immediately. Instead, the decision underscored how monetary authorities in export-driven Asian economies are being forced to navigate a narrow path between external shocks and domestic fragilities.

At the centre of the debate is inflation. Official data showed consumer prices in March rose 2.2 per cent from a year earlier, up from 2.0 per cent in February, while core inflation, which excludes food and energy, also stood at 2.2 per cent. The Bank of Korea said petroleum prices had risen sharply and noted that short-term inflation expectations among the public edged up to 2.7 per cent. It now expects consumer inflation this year to exceed its February projection of 2.2 per cent by a meaningful margin, with core inflation also likely to come in above the earlier 2.1 per cent forecast.

That shift is important because the central bank had been able for months to argue that price growth was gradually stabilising near target. The worsening external backdrop has disrupted that narrative. The board said inflation is likely to move into the mid- to upper-2 per cent range as global oil prices and supply constraints lift import costs, though government price-stabilisation measures may soften part of the blow. Reuters reported that Seoul’s fuel-price caps, introduced last month for the first time in decades, helped restrain March inflation but are unlikely to provide a lasting shield if energy costs stay elevated.

Growth, meanwhile, is losing momentum. The central bank said the economy had been supported by strong exports, firmer consumption and continued job gains, but warned that downside pressure had increased since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. It expects expansion this year to come in below the 2.0 per cent forecast issued in February, as higher energy prices and supply bottlenecks offset support from semiconductor exports and a supplementary budget. That combination leaves the Bank of Korea confronting an uncomfortable form of policy tension: weaker activity alongside stronger inflation.

The won has added to the pressure. The central bank said the currency weakened into the 1,500-won range against the US dollar as investors moved into safer assets and foreign investors sold domestic equities, before recovering some ground after a temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran. A softer currency raises the local-currency cost of imported fuel and raw materials, complicating the inflation picture and limiting the case for any near-term rate cuts.

Financial markets reflected that cautious tone. Reuters reported that South Korea’s policy-sensitive three-year treasury bond futures erased early gains during the governor’s press conference, suggesting investors interpreted the message as more alert to inflation risks than to immediate growth support. Analysts cited by Reuters said the rebound in energy prices and the won’s weakness have narrowed the central bank’s room for manoeuvre, even if domestic demand still needs close watching.

China has authorised state oil refiners to draw on commercial crude reserves as the Middle East war enters its sixth week, a move that points to mounting concern in Beijing over supply security, refinery operations and fuel stability in the world’s biggest crude importer. The decision marks a notable shift after reporting in March indicated that access to such reserves had been denied, underscoring how sharply the market backdrop has changed.

The policy adjustment comes as the conflict centred on Iran has disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a route that handled about 20 million barrels a day of crude and oil products in 2025 and remains one of the most critical chokepoints in global energy trade. The International Energy Agency said in March that the war had created the biggest supply disruption in oil market history, with flows through Hormuz falling from around 20 million barrels a day before the war to only a trickle.

For China, the timing is especially sensitive. State refiners have already been grappling with higher feedstock costs, disrupted shipping routes and a scramble for replacement barrels from outside the Gulf. Reuters reported in late March that Sinopec, the country’s largest refiner by capacity, had sought access to state reserves after deciding against buying Iranian crude, while also trimming refinery runs. Earlier reporting in mid-March said China had been building inventories rather than drawing them down, suggesting Beijing initially preferred to preserve stocks.

That stance now appears to have softened. Bloomberg reported on April 10 that authorities had given state refiners the green light to tap commercial reserves. While the precise volume and duration were not publicly disclosed, the move is significant because it signals Beijing is willing to use part of the country’s stock cushion to smooth supplies for domestic processing rather than rely solely on the spot market at a time of exceptional volatility.

The wider market has been under intense pressure even as talk of a ceasefire has briefly cooled futures prices. Reuters reported that physical crude markets in Europe and Africa remained extremely tight despite a temporary truce, with buyers in Asia and Europe competing aggressively for non-Middle East barrels. Another Reuters report said U. S. crude premiums had surged to record highs as importers sought alternatives to Gulf supplies. That matters for China because replacing lost or delayed Middle East cargoes has become more expensive just as refining margins in parts of Asia remain fragile.

Supply conditions deteriorated further this week after attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure cut output capacity by around 600,000 barrels a day and reduced throughput on the East-West Pipeline by about 700,000 barrels a day, according to Saudi state media cited by Reuters. The pipeline is vital because it allows exports to bypass Hormuz via the Red Sea. Damage there narrowed one of the few remaining alternative routes for Gulf producers trying to keep oil moving to Asian customers.

Asian refiners have already felt the strain. Reuters reported that seaborne crude imports into Asia in April were estimated at 19.22 million barrels a day, sharply below the three-month average of 25 million barrels a day. Although refined fuel prices eased after hopes of a truce, the same report said the market was still stressed and that it could take months for normality to return even if shipping improves. For Beijing, releasing commercial stocks is therefore less a dramatic emergency measure than a tactical effort to bridge a period of dislocation.

The decision also reflects China’s domestic balancing act. Authorities have been trying to keep fuel output steady even as weak underlying demand and higher crude costs squeeze refiners. Reuters reported on April 2 that officials had pressed independent refiners to maintain production despite the surge in oil prices and wartime disruption. That suggests Beijing is seeking to avoid sharp swings in fuel availability or industrial costs while preserving broader economic stability.

There is also a geopolitical layer. China has opposed any overtly force-based international response around Hormuz and has pushed for de-escalation at the United Nations, according to Reuters reporting on Security Council negotiations. At the same time, the reserve release shows that Beijing is preparing for a conflict that may not be resolved quickly and for shipping conditions that may remain uncertain even if diplomatic language softens.

By Nitya Chakraborty All nations in the globe except perhaps Israel have welcomed the ceasefire agreement for two weeks between U.S. and Iran announced by President Donald Trump on April 7 evening US time and later endorsed by the Iranian government. The ceasefire is fragile – Israel has bombed Lebanon killing 254 persons on Wednesday […]

The article Ceasefire Agreement Is Fragile But Islamabad Talks Must Be Used For Stable Peace appeared first on Latest India news, analysis and reports on Newspack by India Press Agency).

The ratings agency said elevated oil prices are likely to widen the current-account deficit this year and weaken external buffers, even as it still expects the economy to expand at a healthy pace and the fiscal deficit to narrow over the next two years. S&P projected growth of 5.8% in 2026 after the economy expanded 4.4% in 2025, with softer momentum in the first half and a rebound later in the year.

The decision lands at a delicate moment for Manila. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas warned this week that higher fuel costs were already feeding into broader prices after March inflation accelerated to 4.1%, above the central bank’s 2% to 4% target band and sharply higher than February’s 2.4%. Transport costs were the main driver, with diesel prices up 59.5% from a year earlier and gasoline up 27.3%, while core inflation also edged higher, suggesting second-round effects may be starting to build.

That inflation pulse helps explain why S&P has become more cautious. A country that depends heavily on imported fuel is especially exposed when conflict disrupts Middle East energy flows, and the Philippines has been among the Asian economies hit hardest by the latest oil shock. Reuters reported that Brent crude had risen 55% since the Iran war began on February 28, while the Philippine peso slid to record lows against the dollar, adding another layer of imported inflation pressure.

The external vulnerability is not new, but the conflict has made it harder to ignore. Philippine officials have been scrambling to secure energy supplies, including seeking assurances over safe passage for Philippine-flagged ships and fuel cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz. Manila has also explored alternative sources of crude and emergency measures to protect domestic supply, underlining how quickly a geopolitical crisis can turn into a ratings issue for an energy-importing economy.

For investors, the key point is that S&P did not cut the rating itself. The agency kept the BBB+ grade in place, indicating that it still sees underlying strengths in the economy, including growth potential, remittance support and expectations of gradual fiscal repair. That distinction matters. An outlook change signals rising risk over the medium term, but it is not the same as a downgrade, and it leaves room for the sovereign to stabilise if external pressures ease and macroeconomic management holds firm.

Still, the downgrade in outlook will sharpen attention on the government’s fiscal path. The Philippines has already lowered its medium-term growth targets to reflect the impact of Middle East tensions and shifts in US trade policy. Official forecasts now put 2025 growth at 5.5% to 6.5%, down from 6% to 8%, while targets for 2026 to 2028 have been narrowed to 6% to 7%. That softer growth backdrop makes deficit reduction harder, particularly if the state is forced to spend more on fuel relief, transport support or other measures to cushion households and businesses.

There are signs, however, that the fiscal picture is not uniformly worsening. Treasury data showed the budget deficit in February narrowed marginally from a year earlier, while year-to-date figures improved sharply because of stronger revenues and earlier remittance of dividends. S&P’s own statement suggests it still expects fiscal metrics to improve, even if the war has made that path more vulnerable to setbacks.

Beyond the government balance sheet, the social cost of the energy spike is becoming harder to miss. Reuters reported that some farmers in Benguet province were abandoning harvests because higher fuel, labour and transport costs made it uneconomic to bring produce to market. That kind of strain matters for credit analysis because it shows how an oil shock can move from shipping lanes and currency markets into household spending, food supply chains and political pressure for intervention.