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A National Barometer Survey released Thursday showed 43 per cent of respondents approved of Lee’s handling of state affairs, down seven percentage points from two weeks earlier, while 48 per cent disapproved. It was the first time disapproval exceeded approval in the biweekly poll since Lee took office in June 2025.

The same survey found 45 per cent opposed deploying military assets, including maritime patrol aircraft and support ships, to Hormuz, compared with 36 per cent who supported such a move. Opposition was strongest among respondents in their 40s and 50s and among supporters of Lee’s ruling Democratic Party, underscoring the domestic political risk surrounding any military contribution.

Seoul has repeatedly said no final decision has been made. Seong Ghi-hong, senior presidential secretary for public relations and communication, said Wednesday that the government had not finalised its policy and was “cautiously assessing” the issue. A Defence Ministry inspection team sent to the United Arab Emirates to examine conditions returned on Thursday.

The government has described the mission as an assessment rather than preparation for deployment. National Security Adviser Wi Sung-lac also said talks between Lee and French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris focused on possible contributions to maritime security and freedom of navigation, not on an agreement to send troops.

The debate has sharpened as US President Donald Trump presses allies to help secure Hormuz during the prolonged conflict with Iran. Trump has publicly criticised Seoul over its reluctance to support US efforts in the waterway, which carries a major share of the energy supplies used by South Korea and other Asian economies.

South Korean officials have denied that Washington imposed a deadline for a deployment. The presidential office has said Seoul is discussing practical ways to support peace, stability and free navigation with international partners, while weighing military readiness, legal requirements and the risks of deeper involvement in the conflict.

Any dispatch of troops would require approval from the National Assembly, where Lee’s Democratic Party holds a majority. That gives the government procedural room but does not remove the political cost of acting against a sizeable share of public opinion, including voters aligned with the ruling camp.

A separate Hangil Research survey conducted from September 5 to 7 found 47.1 per cent opposed deployment and 43 per cent supported it, a difference within the poll’s margin of error. Opposition rose to 55.5 per cent among Democratic Party supporters and 62.4 per cent among self-described liberals.

Lee’s broader ratings have also weakened for domestic reasons. A Realmeter survey released Monday put his approval at 37.4 per cent, down 1.5 percentage points over the week and the eighth consecutive weekly decline. The pollster linked the fall primarily to disputes over a cabinet reshuffle and housing-related policy changes rather than the Hormuz question alone.

Gallup Korea last week placed Lee’s approval at 40 per cent, with 51 per cent disapproving. Respondents who viewed him negatively most often cited real estate policy, followed by concerns about the economy and livelihoods and dissatisfaction with personnel appointments.

The Hormuz issue nevertheless adds a foreign-policy dilemma at a sensitive moment. South Korea depends heavily on imported energy, and disruption in the strait has already increased the strategic importance of keeping shipping routes open. At the same time, Iran has warned Seoul against military participation, saying such a move could be viewed as siding with US military action.

Shipping through Hormuz remains sharply below pre-war levels as the United States and Iran continue military and economic pressure around the waterway. The conflict has pushed oil prices higher and complicated supply planning across Asia, giving Seoul a direct economic interest in restoring safer passage without becoming drawn further into hostilities.

  By R. Suryamurthy India’s trade with BRICS has expanded dramatically, but the numbers reveal an uncomfortable imbalance beneath the rhetoric about a multipolar world and alternative financial architecture. Between FY2021 and FY2026, India’s total merchandise trade with the 11-member grouping more than doubled, from $203.1 billion to $417.5 billion. Yet the expansion was overwhelmingly […]

The article Bricks cannot de-dollarise its way out of India’s huge trade imbalance appeared first on Latest India news, analysis and reports on Newspack by India Press Agency).

The proposal is expected to feature at the BRICS leaders’ summit in New Delhi on September 12 and 13, where India, as this year’s chair, is seeking agreement on ways to lower the cost and speed up the settlement of trade, tourism and remittance payments among member states.

Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra said last month that BRICS members were examining links between their fast-payment systems and central bank digital currencies, with a payments task force considering several options. He stressed that discussions remained at an exploratory stage and that no model had been agreed.

India’s preference is for interoperable national systems rather than either a common currency or centrally controlled BRICS payments architecture. Officials have framed the initiative around efficiency, cheaper transactions and use of sovereign currencies, distancing it from proposals that could be interpreted as an organised campaign to displace the US dollar.

That distinction has become politically important as BRICS members debate how far financial cooperation should go. Russia and some other members have advocated stronger alternatives to Western-dominated payment channels, while India has repeatedly ruled out backing a common BRICS currency and has resisted presenting financial initiatives as a de-dollarisation project.

The RBI earlier recommended that linking BRICS members’ digital currencies be placed on the summit agenda. Such an arrangement could allow transactions to be settled directly through participating central banks or financial institutions, reducing dependence on multiple correspondent banks and potentially cutting foreign-exchange and processing costs.

Central bank digital currencies are electronic forms of sovereign money issued by monetary authorities. Unlike privately issued stablecoins, their value and settlement are backed by central banks. India has been testing the digital rupee since 2022 and has added features including programmability and offline functionality as the RBI studies how it can complement payment methods.

Malhotra has said cross-border payments offer scope for lower costs, particularly in retail transactions. He has also said the RBI will continue efforts to promote greater international use of the rupee and encourage settlement in local currencies where commercially viable.

India is pursuing payment connectivity on a parallel track through the Unified Payments Interface, its instant retail payments platform. Prime Minister Narendra Modi this week called for UPI to be connected with payment systems in more countries. UPI is already available or linked with services in several overseas markets, including Singapore and the United Arab Emirates.

The BRICS discussions nevertheless extend beyond retail payment links. Officials have also been examining whether digital currencies issued by central banks can provide a secure settlement layer for transactions between member economies without requiring the creation of a shared currency or new supranational monetary authority.

Technical and policy obstacles remain. CBDC systems across BRICS countries are at different stages of development, and any cross-border arrangement would require agreement on interoperability, cybersecurity, data standards, foreign-exchange conversion, liquidity, governance and legal responsibility when transactions fail or disputes arise.

Trade imbalances pose another complication because a country receiving more of another member’s currency than it can use may be reluctant to accumulate balances. Policymakers have therefore also discussed mechanisms involving currency swaps and other settlement arrangements to deal with mismatches in bilateral trade.

The BRICS grouping now comprises 11 members, making consensus more difficult than when it consisted only of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The expanded membership includes Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Indonesia, while Saudi Arabia has participated in BRICS meetings as its membership status has remained subject to clarification.

The currency came under pressure after Brent crude held above $100 a barrel amid continuing tensions in West Asia, reinforcing worries about higher energy costs for a country that imports more than three-quarters of its crude oil requirements. The rupee had settled at 95.1050 against the dollar on Wednesday after touching 95.2250 during the session.

Dealers said demand for dollars from oil importers, corporate debt repayments and hedging activity added to the pressure. State-run banks were also seen supplying dollars during trading, an action market participants associated with efforts by the Reserve Bank of India to limit excessive volatility in the foreign-exchange market.

Brent crude traded around $101-$102 a barrel during Asian hours after crossing the $100 mark on Wednesday. The move followed renewed military tensions involving the United States and Iran and heightened concern about shipping and energy supply through the Gulf, including routes linked to the Strait of Hormuz.

Higher oil prices are particularly significant for the rupee because petroleum imports are paid largely in dollars. A sustained rise in crude can widen India’s trade deficit, increase demand for foreign currency from refiners and add to inflationary pressure, creating a less favourable backdrop for the local currency.

The rupee has lost roughly 0.7 per cent over the previous two sessions, with traders saying the effect of higher oil prices has become more visible after the currency had initially shown resilience. The movement has also coincided with caution across Asian markets and pressure on domestic equities.

Benchmark share indices were subdued on Thursday after suffering sharp losses in the previous session. The Sensex had dropped 813.35 points, or 1.08 per cent, on Wednesday to close at 74,764.23, while the Nifty 50 fell 203.60 points, or 0.86 per cent, to 23,431.50. The sell-off reflected concern that expensive crude could complicate the inflation and growth outlook.

The Reserve Bank has intervened intermittently in the currency market during periods of sharp rupee weakness. Traders said dollar sales by state-run banks helped the currency recover from Wednesday’s intraday low, although market participants expected central-bank support to restrain volatility rather than reverse pressure created by oil prices and capital flows.

Foreign-exchange dealers were also monitoring overseas portfolio movements. Expectations of capital outflows and demand linked to corporate payments have increased near-term dollar requirements, while the dollar index remained close to 99 against a basket of major currencies, offering only limited relief to emerging-market currencies.

The rise in crude has revived concern over India’s external balances. A higher oil import bill can feed into the current-account deficit if export earnings and other inflows do not offset the additional cost. It can also increase costs for transport, manufacturing and other energy-intensive sectors, depending on the extent to which international prices are passed through domestically.

Domestic fuel prices have so far remained comparatively insulated from the latest jump in international crude, but refiners and oil-marketing companies face greater pressure when global prices rise sharply while retail prices are unchanged. That gap can affect corporate margins and, if sustained, increase the broader fiscal and inflationary policy challenge.

Bond and equity markets are also watching the oil move for its implications for monetary policy. Higher imported energy costs can make inflation management more difficult, while weaker risk appetite may intensify foreign portfolio selling. Traders said those factors could keep the rupee volatile even if the central bank continues to provide dollar liquidity during periods of disorderly movement.

By K Raveendran India has spent the past four years demonstrating that energy security can sometimes be protected by refusing to choose sides. Russian crude offered discounts when Western sanctions rearranged the global oil market, Gulf producers remained indispensable despite the new relationship with Moscow, and purchases from the United States and other distant suppliers […]

The article India’s oil cushion faces two-front squeeze amidst Trump’s tariff threat appeared first on Latest India news, analysis and reports on Newspack by India Press Agency).

The Sinopec Economics & Development Research Institute said petrol and diesel would account for most of the reduction, with petrol demand projected to drop 8.7% from a year earlier to 149 million tonnes and diesel consumption to fall 11.4% to 164 million tonnes. Jet fuel demand, by contrast, is forecast to rise 1.3% to 41.55 million tonnes.

The forecast underscores a sharper structural shift in the world’s biggest crude importer, where transport electrification is steadily reducing dependence on petroleum fuels while the US-Iran war has pushed up energy prices and disrupted supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. The institute said the combination of high prices and changing transport patterns was weakening consumption across key refined products.

China’s oil demand has now declined for three straight years, according to the institute, strengthening evidence that growth in transport fuel use has peaked. The International Energy Agency has separately estimated that electric vehicles displaced about one million barrels a day of oil demand in China during 2025, roughly 15% of the road-transport demand that would otherwise have been required if the fleet had remained dominated by internal-combustion vehicles.

The IEA expects the displacement effect to deepen as the electric fleet expands, with electric vehicles in China projected to displace about 2.7 million barrels a day by 2030 under current policy settings. China already has the world’s largest stock of electric vehicles, and electrification is spreading beyond passenger cars into buses and heavy trucks, where diesel use has historically been substantial.

The IEA has said China’s transport oil consumption has flattened despite economic growth, as electric vehicles, gas-powered trucks and high-speed rail increasingly replace petroleum-based travel and freight.

The Sinopec research unit also lowered its outlook for crude processing, putting China’s 2026 refinery throughput at 697 million tonnes. Sinopec itself, the world’s largest refiner by capacity, has set a second-half oil throughput target of 113 million tonnes, broadly unchanged from the first half, according to its interim results.

Refining capacity is nevertheless expected to reach 952 million tonnes a year, equivalent to about 19.04 million barrels a day, in 2026. The research institute said tighter policy requirements and falling domestic demand would speed the closure of inefficient plants, particularly smaller and medium-sized refineries with limited product ranges.

It estimated that facilities representing 80 million to 100 million tonnes of annual refining capacity could leave the market. That would reduce national refining capacity to between 900 million and 910 million tonnes a year by the end of 2030, a contraction of as much as 5.5% from the 2026 level.

Weakness is also evident in petrochemicals. Although profits in China’s chemical industry rose by more than 50% year on year during the first seven months of 2026, the institute said apparent demand remained subdued. It forecast full-year ethylene-equivalent consumption to decline 8% because of high costs and inventory pressures.

The demand outlook has wider implications for global oil markets because China’s purchases have long been a major source of incremental consumption. Lower demand has helped restrain crude imports and limit price gains even as the conflict involving the United States and Iran has disrupted Gulf supply routes and tightened physical markets.

Brent crude climbed above $100 a barrel on Wednesday as renewed attacks raised fears of further supply losses. Yet weaker consumption in China remains an important counterweight to the supply shock, with traders weighing the effects of reduced imports against disruption across the Middle East.