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Consumption growth in the world’s third-largest crude importer is now forecast at about 78,000 barrels a day for 2026, nearly 40 per cent below pre-war expectations. Excluding the Covid-hit year of 2020, that would mark the slowest expansion in a decade for an economy that has otherwise been one of the main pillars of global oil-demand growth.

The downgrade reflects the widening economic impact of the war involving Iran, which began at the end of February and disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil transit routes. International crude prices have risen sharply from pre-conflict levels, while refined product markets have tightened as Gulf exports of fuels and feedstocks remain constrained.

India’s reliance on imported crude and petroleum products has amplified the pressure. Higher energy prices are feeding into transport costs, refinery margins, aviation fuel expenses and household fuel supply management. A weaker rupee has added to the burden by increasing the local-currency cost of dollar-denominated imports.

State-run refiners have raised some fuel prices modestly, but domestic retail prices remain well below market-reflective levels. Oil ministry estimates indicate that processors have been losing about ₹6 billion a day on sales of diesel, petrol and liquefied petroleum gas. The strain has revived concerns over under-recoveries at state-controlled retailers, even as authorities seek to shield households and small businesses from a sharper fuel-price shock.

Diesel, the largest component of petroleum product consumption, is showing the clearest signs of stress. It powers trucks, tractors, construction equipment and a large portion of industrial activity. Forecasts for diesel-demand growth have been cut heavily, with some estimates suggesting growth may slow to only 4,000 to 5,000 barrels a day, compared with earlier expectations of 50,000 to 60,000 barrels a day.

Transport operators say higher running costs are already hurting freight movement. Rajendra Kapoor, president of the All India Motor and Goods Transport Association, said customers were resisting higher freight charges even as fuel expenses had risen. He estimated that fleet movement had fallen by 15 per cent to 20 per cent, affecting the movement of farm goods, industrial raw materials and retail products.

Petrol demand remains more resilient because passenger mobility has held up better than heavy freight. Even so, growth projections for petrol have been cut by about 40 per cent to around 38,000 barrels a day. Urban commuting, private vehicle use and two-wheeler demand continue to support consumption, but high prices and government appeals for fuel conservation are tempering growth.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has urged people to save fuel by working from home where possible, using public transport and avoiding non-essential overseas travel. Such measures indicate how the energy shock has moved beyond refinery balance sheets into wider economic management.

Aviation turbine fuel is another area under pressure. Jet fuel costs account for a major share of airline operating expenses, and the loss of Middle East product exports has tightened supplies. Forecasts for jet fuel growth have been halved by some market consultants, while airlines face the twin challenge of higher fuel bills and weaker discretionary travel demand in price-sensitive segments.

Liquefied petroleum gas has also been hit by supply disruptions. April consumption fell to about 2.2 million metric tonnes, down more than 16 per cent from a year earlier, as import flows were affected. Authorities have asked state fuel retailers to build LPG storage capacity equivalent to 30 days of demand, a move aimed at strengthening energy security against further disruptions.

Official petroleum data showed total product consumption at 19.30 million metric tonnes in April, down 4.6 per cent from a year earlier. The contraction followed a record high of 21.75 million tonnes in December 2025, underlining the speed with which the war-related price shock has altered demand conditions.

Global oil-market agencies also disagree over the depth of the slowdown. Some forecasts still expect worldwide demand to rise this year, while others now see a contraction because of weaker refinery runs, reduced petrochemical feedstock availability and lower aviation activity. The sharpest downgrades have been concentrated in Asia, where import-dependent economies are most exposed to disruption in Gulf supply chains.

The reported move, if confirmed, would mark a significant shift in the composition of India’s external buffers at a time when oil prices, foreign portfolio outflows and import demand are combining to test the country’s balance of payments position. The RBI has not publicly confirmed any gold sale of that scale, and the latest available reserve data show a fall in the value of gold holdings rather than a definitive disclosure of physical bullion sales.

India’s foreign exchange reserves fell to $681.4 billion for the week ended May 22, down $7.5 billion from the previous week. Foreign currency assets declined by about $3 billion to $543 billion, while the value of gold reserves dropped by roughly $4.5 billion. The fall came as the rupee traded near record lows, having weakened by more than 4 per cent since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict and the accompanying rise in energy prices.

The rupee has been under sustained pressure from higher crude oil and liquefied natural gas costs, wider hedging by importers and withdrawals by overseas investors from domestic equities. Brent crude has traded in the mid-$90 range, raising concern over India’s import bill because the country depends heavily on overseas energy supplies. Any prolonged disruption in Gulf shipping routes would add to inflation risks and intensify demand for dollars from refiners and importers.

The RBI has intervened through state-run banks to slow the currency’s decline, with traders indicating that the central bank has been uncomfortable with disorderly depreciation. The rupee was around 95 to the dollar this week after briefly sliding close to 97 in May. The central bank’s policy decision due this week is being watched for signals on whether it will rely mainly on liquidity tools, dollar sales and administrative measures, or consider a firmer monetary response.

The reported $12 billion gold-related action has drawn attention because India’s gold holdings have expanded in importance within the reserve portfolio. The central bank held about 880.5 tonnes of gold at the end of March, with gold accounting for nearly 17 per cent of total foreign exchange reserves. The physical stock has been broadly steady around 880 tonnes since mid-2025, suggesting that changes in the dollar value of gold reserves can reflect price movements, accounting effects and reserve operations as well as outright sales.

Gold has become a larger part of central bank reserves worldwide as monetary authorities seek diversification away from dollar assets and protection against geopolitical shocks. India has also moved more of its bullion to domestic vaults, reducing custody risks linked to overseas storage. That strategy had been seen as a long-term strengthening of sovereign reserve control, making any suggestion of sizeable gold liquidation politically and financially sensitive.

The government has moved separately to curb foreign exchange outflows. Import duties on gold and silver have been lifted sharply to about 15 per cent from 6 per cent, reversing earlier tariff relief and increasing the landed cost of precious metals. Rules around some bullion imports have also been tightened, while appeals have been made to households to reduce discretionary gold purchases.

Fuel prices have also been raised as state-run retailers pass through part of the increase in international crude costs. Petrol and diesel prices have risen after several years of limited retail adjustments, adding to household costs but reducing the burden on public-sector oil marketing companies. The step is intended to limit under-recoveries at fuel retailers and reduce the fiscal strain that would otherwise build if global prices stay elevated.

The combined policy response reflects the strain of a classic external shock: a weaker currency lifts import costs, higher oil prices widen the trade deficit, and investors demand higher compensation for risk. India enters this phase with substantial reserves, moderate inflation by past crisis standards and a financial system that remains broadly stable, but the speed of the rupee’s decline has revived comparisons with earlier episodes of currency stress.

For markets, the key question is whether the central bank can preserve confidence without exhausting liquid dollar assets or signalling panic. A calibrated use of reserves can smooth volatility, but heavy intervention may raise doubts if investors see it as a defence of a particular exchange-rate level. The RBI’s challenge is to keep currency markets orderly while allowing enough flexibility for the rupee to adjust to the oil shock and global risk aversion.

By Dr. Gyan Pathak The last three months of 2026 have seen considerable inflationary pressure on Indian economy on account of fuel crisis triggered by the Iran war. All sectors of economy are reeling under the pressure. Unemployment is rising, real wages have declined, and living cost is rising fast. Now, there is an additional […]

The article Fuel Crisis, Inflationary Pressure On Economy, And Now A Deficit Monsoon appeared first on Latest India news, analysis and reports on Newspack by India Press Agency).

The renewed memorandum of understanding was signed on 25 May by Rear Admiral Saif bin Nasser Al Rahbi, Commander of the Royal Navy of Oman and Chairman of the Maritime Security Committee, and G. V. Srinivas, India’s Ambassador to the Sultanate of Oman. Oman was represented by the Maritime Security Centre, underlining the agreement’s operational focus on maritime safety, information-sharing and cooperation at sea.

The renewal keeps in place a mechanism that has gained importance as shipping routes through the Arabian Sea, Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz face heightened risks from regional conflict, trafficking networks, drone threats, piracy-linked activity and disruptions to commercial navigation. For both countries, maritime security is tied not only to defence cooperation but also to energy flows, trade resilience and the protection of expatriate and commercial links across the Gulf.

The agreement aims to sustain joint cooperation and facilitate the exchange of expertise in maritime security, with the stated objective of contributing to the safety and security of maritime navigation. Its scope fits into a wider pattern of bilateral defence engagement involving naval interaction, coast guard cooperation, training, port calls, high-level meetings and operational contact between maritime agencies.

Oman’s location gives the pact strategic weight. The Sultanate sits close to the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of the world’s seaborne oil trade passes, and faces the Arabian Sea, a route connecting the Gulf with East Africa, South Asia and the wider Indo-Pacific. India’s energy imports, diaspora links and commercial shipping make stability in these waters a central security interest.

The renewed document also reflects a continuity in defence ties that have developed through structured mechanisms over two decades. India and Oman have maintained regular military cooperation, including joint committee meetings, staff-level exchanges and service-to-service engagement. Earlier maritime arrangements between the two sides covered cooperation against crimes at sea, including piracy, armed robbery, arms trafficking, drug smuggling, illegal immigration and people-smuggling by sea.

Coast guard engagement has become a practical arm of that relationship. The Indian Coast Guard and Royal Oman Police Coast Guard have used high-level meetings to discuss capacity-building, cross-ship visits, the Sea Rider programme, pollution-reporting links and cooperation against transnational illegal activity at sea. Such measures are aimed at creating working-level familiarity before crises emerge, particularly in areas where law-enforcement, search-and-rescue and environmental response overlap.

The agreement comes as maritime security has moved higher on the regional agenda. Attacks on merchant vessels in and around the Red Sea, tensions linked to the Israel-Gaza war, risks around Iran-linked flashpoints and the vulnerability of energy shipping have pushed Gulf and Indian Ocean states to strengthen coordination. Oman has also positioned itself as a diplomatic and maritime actor with an interest in keeping sea lanes open while maintaining dialogue with multiple regional powers.

For India, Oman remains one of its closest defence partners in the Gulf. Access, trust and geography make the relationship important for deployments, evacuation contingencies, anti-piracy coordination and wider maritime domain awareness. Oman has historically provided India with a reliable western Indian Ocean partner, while Muscat benefits from deeper technical, training and operational interaction with a major naval power.

The security renewal also sits alongside a growing economic relationship. Bilateral trade has crossed the $10 billion mark, and the two countries signed a comprehensive economic partnership agreement in December 2025 to expand market access for goods and services. The trade pact gave exports from India zero-duty access across most Omani tariff lines, while New Delhi agreed tariff reductions covering a large share of imports from Oman by value.

That economic backdrop makes maritime security more than a defence concern. Smooth shipping flows affect energy supplies, fertilisers, minerals, food products, pharmaceuticals, textiles and engineering goods. Oman’s ports and logistics infrastructure are also relevant to India’s westward trade links, particularly as supply chains adjust to geopolitical tensions and route disruptions.

The renewed memorandum is expected to support more sustained institutional contact between the two sides rather than a one-off diplomatic gesture. Its emphasis on expertise-sharing suggests cooperation may cover surveillance practices, response protocols, training modules, information exchange and coordination against illegal activities at sea. It also offers a framework for strengthening maritime navigation safety at a time when commercial vessels increasingly require layered protection across contested waters.