Arabian Post Staff -Dubai
Australia’s Santos revealed that a takeover proposal valued at US $18.7 billion, spearheaded by a consortium under the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, will not be concluded by the extended 22 August deadline and now faces a delay of at least four weeks. The investment group, including ADNOC’s XRG arm, Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company and private equity firm Carlyle, cited the need to finalise regulatory and due diligence clearances across multiple jurisdictions—including Australia, Papua New Guinea and the United States—before completing a binding scheme implementation agreement.
Santos confirmed that negotiations remain “collaborative” yet incomplete, with both parties still to secure agreement on acceptable terms for a binding SIA. Given the outstanding conditions, signing before the end of the week appears unlikely.
The implications for Santos’ investors were swift: its shares slid up to 3.5 per cent, reaching A$7.68—a five-week low—marking it as one of the ASX 200’s most notable underperformers.
The bid, if executed, would become Australia’s largest-ever all-cash corporate takeover. Santos’ enterprise value, factoring in net debt, stands at approximately A$36.4 billion, signalling a major transaction in the energy sector.
Industry analysts emphasise that regulatory approvals remain the most significant obstacles. Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board, in particular, presents a critical test given the strategic sensitivity of energy infrastructure. Papuan New Guinea and U. S. authorities also must grant clearance.
James Hood of Regal Funds Management expressed palpable market unease, observing that the share price response reflects “increased risk and uncertainty.” Kaushal Ramesh from Rystad Energy characterised the execution of a deal of this magnitude as “never going to be an easy transaction”, especially with national energy security and regulatory scrutiny in play. Another investor, Jamie Hannah of Van Eck, reiterated that the key challenge isn’t procedural but regulatory—from the FIRB in Australia.
As a result of the delay, Santos will release its interim earnings on 25 August, instead of the previously planned 20 August.
Interest in the Pikka oil project in Alaska—expected to commence production mid-2026—adds further strategic weight to Santos’ asset base and may influence regulatory and investor perspectives on the transaction.
Also published on Medium.
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