The caution comes after the Japanese currency surged to its strongest levels since February, helped by mounting conviction that the central bank will lift its policy rate at its September 17-18 meeting and by speculation that major domestic investors will shift more money out of overseas assets. The dollar fell below 153 yen this week before recovering some ground.
Barclays’ assessment challenges the increasingly bullish market view that the yen has entered a durable appreciation phase. The bank said the latest move has been driven by powerful expectations rather than a fully established change in capital flows or monetary policy, leaving the currency vulnerable if either catalyst disappoints.
Markets have moved close to fully pricing a quarter-point Bank of Japan increase to 1.25 per cent this month. Expectations strengthened after policymakers signalled greater concern over inflation and currency weakness. Board member Kazuyuki Masu said on Thursday that the central bank could be forced to raise rates more rapidly if underlying inflation accelerates, while stressing that decisions would depend on incoming data.
A survey of economists published this week also showed a broad expectation that the Bank of Japan will raise rates to 1.25 per cent in September, with further tightening projected during 2027. That outlook has encouraged investors to unwind positions built around Japan’s comparatively low borrowing costs and has increased demand for the yen.
The second pillar of the rally is the prospect that Japanese pension funds and other large institutions will direct more capital into domestic bonds and equities. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said in July that the government wanted pension funds, including the Government Pension Investment Fund, to make substantially greater investments in Japanese financial assets.
That statement triggered speculation that the GPIF, one of the world’s largest pension managers, could reduce its foreign exposure. Its portfolio stood at about 320.4 trillion yen at the end of June, with 25.59 per cent in domestic bonds, 24.48 per cent in domestic equities, 24.60 per cent in foreign bonds and 25.33 per cent in foreign equities, official data show.
A major change in those allocations could generate significant yen buying because foreign assets would have to be sold or currency exposure reduced. Rising Japanese government bond yields have strengthened the argument for keeping more capital at home. The 10-year government bond yield has reached levels not seen for decades, increasing the relative attraction of domestic fixed-income holdings.
Fitch Ratings said this week that higher Japanese yields could encourage banks, insurers and other institutional investors to retain more funds domestically. It also expects Bank of Japan policy rates to rise faster than markets had previously assumed, though it has not projected a wholesale withdrawal from overseas markets.
Evidence of repatriation has nevertheless remained mixed. The GPIF’s June-quarter figures showed domestic bond holdings rising in value while their portfolio share remained close to the fund’s 25 per cent strategic target. Foreign assets still accounted for roughly half of the portfolio, underscoring the scale of adjustment that would be required for pension flows to become a sustained source of yen demand.
The currency’s rise has also been reinforced by the unwinding of yen-funded carry trades, in which investors borrow cheaply in Japan to purchase higher-yielding assets elsewhere. Cross-border yen borrowing reached about 360 trillion yen in March, making abrupt changes in exchange-rate expectations capable of producing sizeable market moves.
The yen had fallen to around 164 per dollar in July before authorities in Japan and the United States intervened jointly in the foreign-exchange market. Its subsequent recovery accelerated this month as traders attached greater weight to tighter monetary policy and domestic capital repatriation.
Follow Arabian Post
Select Arabian Post as your preferred source on Google and MSN News for trusted business news and Arab politics and updates.
