By Dr. Gyan Pathak
The first week of Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra has stirred the politics in the North East India. The political churning that began with former Congress President Rahul Gandhi led Yatra launch on January 14 from Toubal in Manipur has already alarmed the BJP leaders, especially Himanta Biswa Sarma, the Chief Minister of Assam, who seems to be panic stricken, as his actions and statements reveal.
NDA has 20 out of 25 Lok Sabha seats from the region, which includes 15 of the BJP, which they cannot afford to lose when the BJP and its leader PM Narendra Modi would be seeking their third term in the forthcoming Lok Sabha Election 2024, and Himanta’s political fate depends on their success, because he has been leading the BJP and NDA in the North East. His personal political stakes are very high.
Rahul’s Nyay Yatra covered Manipur and Nagaland in two days by January 15, and now is travelling in Assam. In Manipur it travelled 107 km with Imphal being the key place. The Yatra Covered 4 districts in Manipur. Manipur violence since May 2023, under the double engine BJP led government has brought unprecedented miseries to the people of the state.
Manipur has two Lok Sabha seats. BJP had won one seat in Lok Sabha election 2019 by defeating Congress candidate by only 17,755 votes, while the other was won by (Naga People’s Front) NPF defeating BJP by a margin of 73,782 votes. The Manipur violence has an adverse impact on the BJP’s political prospect this time, and even a minor gain by Congress would prove too costly for the BJP in the State. Nyay Yatra in Manipur gained good support from the local people, much to the chagrin of BJP leaders.
In Nagaland, it travelled 257 km in two days covering 5 districts with Kohima as a key place. Nagaland has only one Lok Sabha seat that is held by National Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP), which was a part of NDA in the Lok Sabha election 2019. NDPP has bagged only 49.73 per cent of votes as against 48.11 per cent gained by the Congress in 2019. Swing in favour of the Congress was 18.1 per cent. Obviously, Rahul’s Nyay Yatra, has further strengthened the Congress, as seen from the positive response from the people. Even a minor gain to Congress may upset the political apple cart of NDA in the state.
After successful Yatra, in Manipur and Nagaland, it has entered in Assam on January 18, the state where BJP’s Himanta Biswa Sarma is the Chief Minister. Already alarmed from the success of Rahul’s yatra in the two states, he has witnessing how the yatra is successfully progressing in Assam too. The Yatra is intended to travel 833 km in Assam in 8 days covering 17 districts with key places Jorhat, Dispur, and Guwahati.
Himanta has much to worry in Assam, because the state sends 14 Lok Sabha seats, out of which BJP had won 9 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. The party could bag only 36.05 per cent of votes against 35.44 per cent of votes polled by Congress. It was a matter of great worry for the BJP since the winning margin was wafer thin. Additionally, there was negative swing against BJP of minus 0.45 per cent though it was able to get two more seats compared to 2014. The swing in favour of Congress was 5.84 per cent, but it could get only 3 seats. AIUDF had lost its two seats but had gained 7.8 per cent vote.
Even before the Nyay Yatra entered Assam, AIUDF and Congress has almost settled the issue of seat sharing in the state. AIUDF will be contesting on 3 seats while the Congress will contest on 11 seats. The combined vote share would thus be much more than the BJP’s in the forthcoming Lok Sabha election. It was the chief reason for Himanta’s panic while the positive response the Yatra is gaining from the people in the state has additionally heightened his political stake.
Yatra is clearly helping Congress to revive its presence and popularity in the region where it has lost considerable ground to the BJP and its allies in the recent years. It has an appeal to the diverse ethnic groups and communities in the North East who have faced violence, discrimination, and neglect from the Central government led by PM Narendra Modi, and the state governments such as in Assam led by BJP Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. Manipur people has tasted the outcome of choosing the double engine government of BJP in the form of ethnic violence. Yatra is also highlighting the unresolved issues of the peace talks with certain communities, the Citizenship Amendment Act, the Inner Line Permit System which have caused considerable resentment and unrest in the region.
No wonder yatra is facing several challenges including legal disruption by the governments led by BJP and NDA, and criticism, especially in Assam and by its CM Himanta Biswa Sarma. They are alleging that the Congress is anti-national, divisive and corrupt. On the other hand, Rahul Gandhi has alleged the Assam and its chief minister the most corrupt in India.
The Yatra has also been undergoing some tough time. Its organisational weaknesses and factionalism have come to fore on several occasions, and the Congress leaders needed to address them. The performance and credibility of the Yatra needs even better coordination within the party and also with the INDIA alliance partners, if they want to really succeed the BJP’s apple cart in the North East. Yatra must try to more clear and compelling narrative for the Lok Sabha election 2024.
Nyay Yatra would also go through 55 km in Arunachal Pradesh and 5 km in Meghalaya in coming days covering one district each with key places Itanagar and Shillong. Thus, the yatra would be covering 5 states out of 8 in the North East. Given the initial success of the Yatra, it would not be unsafe to conclude that it would be going to impact the political outcome of Lok Sabha election 2024 in the North East in favour of the Congress and its allies in the INDIA alliance. BJP has much to worry, not only on account of this but also likely desertion by its allies in the North East India. (IPA Service)
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