China exports lose pace amid Iran shock

China’s export growth lost momentum sharply in March, offering the clearest sign yet that the war centred on Iran is beginning to weigh on the world’s second-largest economy through higher energy costs, disrupted shipping patterns and weaker overseas demand. Official trade data showed exports rose 2.5 per cent from a year earlier, far below market expectations and down from the 21.8 per cent jump recorded in the combined January-February period.

The slowdown matters because overseas sales have been doing much of the heavy lifting for China while the property downturn and soft household spending continue to restrain growth at home. Economists surveyed by Reuters expect the economy to have expanded 4.8 per cent in the first quarter, up from 4.5 per cent in the previous three months, but they also see the outlook dimming as the Middle East conflict pushes up input costs and clouds demand in key markets.

March’s figures suggest that what had looked like a strong start to the year is becoming harder to sustain. Earlier gains had been supported by front-loaded shipments, strong demand for artificial intelligence-linked electronics and a rebound in some advanced manufacturing exports. That mix is now facing a harsher external backdrop. The conflict involving Iran has disturbed energy markets, with the Strait of Hormuz under severe strain and oil prices climbing towards the $100 a barrel mark, a level that raises transport, production and logistics costs across Asia and Europe.

Imports into China, by contrast, jumped 27.8 per cent in March, the strongest increase since late 2021. Part of that rise reflected demand tied to semiconductors, components and technology supply chains, but it also pointed to stockpiling and shifting trade flows as businesses prepared for a more volatile energy and freight environment. The divergence between softer export growth and surging imports may complicate Beijing’s effort to keep its large trade surplus intact through 2026.

Pressure from the Iran conflict is being transmitted through more than one channel. China remains heavily exposed to imported energy, and although it has reserves and a diversified supply base, higher crude and gas costs squeeze manufacturers’ margins and can erode the price competitiveness that has underpinned the country’s export machine. Reuters reported that March also brought the first rise in factory-gate prices in more than three years, indicating that cost pressures are building just as external demand becomes less predictable.

There are also direct trade effects. Reuters reported that crude and natural gas imports fell as the regional conflict disrupted flows. OPEC, in its first formal assessment of the war’s economic effect, cut its forecast for second-quarter global oil demand by 500,000 barrels a day, saying the conflict had become a meaningful drag on consumption and trade. For export-oriented economies such as China, that points to a tougher environment in which customers abroad may curb discretionary spending while producers face steeper energy bills.

Yet the picture is not uniformly bleak. China’s technology and clean-energy manufacturers still have areas of strength that could cushion the blow. Overseas demand for electric vehicles, batteries and solar equipment has been supported by the same oil shock that is hurting traditional exporters. Associated Press reported that Chinese new-energy vehicle exports continued to surge in March, while another AP analysis said the energy crisis was sharpening global interest in Chinese clean-tech supply chains. Those sectors are unlikely to offset every weakness, but they do show that the country’s export story is becoming more uneven rather than simply weaker across the board.

That unevenness is visible across product categories. Lower-value consumer goods such as clothing, furniture and other labour-intensive shipments were hit by seasonal factors and softer foreign demand, while higher-end electrical and AI-linked exports remained more resilient. South Korea’s sharp rise in exports to China, driven by chip demand, underlined the point that advanced technology supply chains are still expanding even as broader goods trade loses pace.

Beijing now faces a familiar policy dilemma made more acute by war. It wants to preserve growth without adding excessive leverage, support exporters without worsening trade tensions, and stabilise domestic demand while avoiding another debt-fuelled property cycle. Current forecasts still place full-year growth within the official 4.5 to 5 per cent target range, but many analysts now expect a weaker second quarter than they did before the Iran crisis deepened. Fiscal support, bond issuance and selective easing remain on the table, though officials appear cautious about deploying a large stimulus immediately.