Conflicts push global peace to new low

Global peace has deteriorated for a 12th consecutive year as armed conflicts, military build-ups and geopolitical fragmentation deepen instability across much of the world, the 2026 Global Peace Index has found.

The latest index, covering 163 countries and territories, recorded a 0.7 per cent decline in the average level of peacefulness over the past year, the 15th deterioration in 18 years. Ninety-nine countries became less peaceful, while 62 improved, underlining a widening imbalance between states able to maintain social stability and those being pulled into conflict, militarisation or political disorder.

The findings mark one of the bleakest readings since the index began, with 119 countries now less peaceful than they were in 2008. Conflict remains the central driver of the decline, but the report also points to the spread of external intervention, rising defence expenditure, violent demonstrations and the rapid use of drones and artificial intelligence in warfare as factors reshaping the global security landscape.

The number of active state-based conflicts reached 61 in 2024, the highest level since the end of the Second World War. Countries involved in some form of external conflict rose from 59 in 2008 to 103 in the 2026 index, reflecting the growth of wars in which outside powers, proxies and non-state actors become increasingly entangled.

Deaths from global conflict remained at historic highs, with more than 181,000 people killed in 2025, a six-fold rise since 2008. Internal conflict deaths have surged, while the number of countries recording at least 1,000 conflict deaths has reached the highest level in the index’s 20-year history.

The economic cost has also climbed sharply. The global impact of violence rose 3.2 per cent to US$21.81 trillion in 2025, equivalent to 10.5 per cent of global GDP. For the ten most affected countries, the cost averaged 23.4 per cent of GDP, compared with 2.2 per cent for the ten least affected, showing how violence traps fragile states in deeper fiscal and social distress.

Military spending reinforced the trend. Global expenditure reached a record US$2.887 trillion in 2025, rising 2.9 per cent in real terms and marking the 11th consecutive annual increase. Spending outside the United States rose 9.2 per cent, with Europe’s 14 per cent surge driven by the war in Ukraine, rearmament plans and shifting assumptions about security guarantees.

The index identifies what it calls a “Great Fragmentation”, a geopolitical shift in which middle powers have gained influence while traditional European powers have lost economic weight. Since 1995, Germany’s share of global GDP has fallen 49 per cent, France’s by 44 per cent and Italy’s by 42 per cent. The result is a more contested international order in which multilateral mechanisms have struggled to stop wars or enforce norms.

Steve Killelea, founder and executive chairman of the Institute for Economics & Peace, said the institutions of peace were being outpaced by geopolitics and technology. He warned that conflict clusters were becoming “more internationalised and larger”, with an arc of instability stretching from South Asia through Iran and the Middle East into the Horn of Africa.

Technology has become a defining part of that shift. Drone attacks rose more than 11,500 per cent between 2018 and 2025, while at least 565 armed groups carried out drone attacks during that period. AI-enabled targeting has shortened decision cycles from hours to seconds in some battlefields, raising concerns about civilian protection, accountability and meaningful human oversight.

The geographical pattern remains uneven. Iceland retained its position as the world’s most peaceful country for the 19th consecutive year, followed by New Zealand, Switzerland, Slovenia and Ireland. Europe remained the most peaceful region overall, with seven of the ten most peaceful countries, despite a marked reversal of its post-Cold War demilitarisation trend.

At the other end of the ranking, Russia became the least peaceful country for the first time, followed by Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ukraine and Israel. The Middle East and North Africa remained the least peaceful region, with four of the ten lowest-ranked countries.

South Asia recorded the largest regional deterioration, led by falls in Nepal and Pakistan. Nepal dropped 26 places, the steepest decline globally, while Pakistan fell to 152nd. Political instability, social unrest and conflict exposure weighed heavily across the region.