By Dr. Gyan Pathak
Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banerjee’s outbursts against the Congress as ‘discourteous’ and her declaration that her party would go solo in the forthcoming Lok Sabha Election 2024 is being blown out of proportion, to emphasize that INDIA bloc is entirely in disarray, and it would help PM Narendra Modi and his BJP in West Bengal, which is just against the political ground reality.
They even failed to read the meaning of Congress’ statement that “no one can imagine INDIA alliance without Mamata Banerjee, which indicate that all is not lost for INDIA bloc. Just a day after Mamata’s declaration of going solo, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra entered West Bengal on January 25, and he exuded confidence that the opposition INDIA bloc will fight against injustice across the country and the BJP and RSS that are spreading hatred and violence.
It is true that Left front in West Bengal has already declared that they will not have any seat sharing arrangement with TMC, and Mamata has now said she will go solo and would contest all 42 Lok Sabha seats in the state. Congress has therefore a very difficult task to perform a tightrope walk between the TMC and the Left front. Though the INDIA bloc has trouble in seat sharing in the state, they will have some mechanism in place to realize their shared dream to defeat the BJP and Narendra Modi.
Let us see the political ground reality in West Bengal to understand how, even if differences persist among INDIA bloc partners, it would not be advantageous enough for the BJP to even retain their seats that they have won in the Lok Sabha election 2019.
TMC had won 22 out of 42 seats and had bagged 43.69 per cent of votes in 2019. BJP on the other hand had won 18, and got 40.64 per cent of votes. Congress had won 2 seats and got 5.67 per cent of votes. Left front could not win any seat but was able to get 6.34 per cent of votes.
However, by 2021, as the West Bengal Vidhan Sabha results indicate, TMC’s vote share sharply increased to 48.02 per cent, while BJP’s vote share reduced to 37.97 per cent. Congress’ vote share reduced to 2.93 per cent and CPI(M)’s declined to 4.73 per cent.
Thus, we see that the winning difference of TMC against the BJP was 10.05 per cent in 2021 Vidhan Sabha election. It was a huge margin and the BJP has nowhere to go for additional votes to cover up the difference, since other political parties don’t have enough votes that could shift towards BJP even in best of the conditions. The little votes share that Left front and the Congress had won in 2021 were by and large cadre votes, which could not be substantially reduced further.
Another point to note is that the TMC and BJP were the only political parties who contested 290 and 293 seats out of 296 Vidhan Sabha seats. CPI(M) contested only 138 and Congress had contested only 91 assembly seats. All these show one thing – in almost half of the Vidhan Sabha constituencies TMC and BJP were in direct contest with each other, and the Left front and the Congress were able to make a poor three corner contest in only half of the seats, since their support base have been drastically reduced.
What has happened between 2021 and now? BJP has suffered severe infighting while TMC remained in political control in the ground level. The Panchayat election of 2023 in the state shows that TMC had a vote share of 51 per cent while BJP’s vote share was only 23 per cent and CPI(M)’s on 14 per cent. Congress’ vote share was just 7 per cent.
If swing of votes are any indication, there was a poor 2 per cent swing of votes in favour of the Congress, 8 per cent in favour of CPI(M) and 10 per cent in favour of BJP, but they all together were far behind TMC’s share of votes at 51 per cent.
It goes without saying that Mamata Banerjee led TMC is the only party that can defeat the BJP in West Bengal, even if it decides to go solo. Therefore, it would be good for INDIA bloc Left Front and the Congress decide to have some seat sharing arrangement with TMC to completely root out the BJP from the state.
Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra would stay for five days in West Bengal, and travel 523 km across six districts and only six Lok Sabha constituencies – Darjeeling, Raigunj, North and South Malda, and two in Murshidabad. The response that the Yatra would get from the people, and the way Congress behaves with TMC leader Mamata would ultimately decide the fate of INDIA bloc in West Bengal.
Out of the 18 Lok Sabah seat BJP had won in Lok Sabha election 2019, about in half of the seats BJP’s support base has considerably declined despite the party’s trying hard to communalize Hindus in their favour. Mamata on the other hand has been going stronger as the election results afterwards reveal. Hence, the differences among INDIA bloc partners will not considerably reverse the declining support base of BJP in West Bengal, and though it can weaken Mamata a little, she remains a formidable force against PM Narendra Modi led BJP. (IPA Service)
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