Hormuz tracking chaos deepens shipping risks

False ship positions have multiplied around the Strait of Hormuz, with vessels shown inland, clustered at impossible coordinates and moving at implausible speeds as electronic interference intensifies around one of the world’s most sensitive energy corridors. The disruption has emerged alongside renewed attacks and drone activity across the Gulf, sharpening concerns for crews, shipowners, insurers and energy buyers already dealing with curtailed traffic through the waterway.

The anomalies point to expanded interference with satellite navigation and vessel-tracking systems rather than ordinary data errors. Maritime monitoring has identified ships falsely placed at airports, near a nuclear power plant and on Iranian land, while at least 21 clusters of jammed Automatic Identification System signals were recorded across UAE, Qatari, Omani and Iranian waters. More than 1,100 vessels experienced GPS and AIS interference within a 24-hour period earlier in the crisis, creating navigation, safety and sanctions-compliance risks.

The latest disruption follows a period of wider regional strain. The UAE said it intercepted two drones coming from Iran, Qatar condemned a drone attack that hit a cargo ship coming from Abu Dhabi in its waters, and Kuwait said its air defences had dealt with hostile drones entering its airspace. A cargo ship operated by HMM Co. also suffered damage to its port stern and a fire in the engine room after an attack in the Strait of Hormuz, with South Korea saying the vessel had not violated rules in force at the time.

Electronic interference has made commercial tracking data less reliable at precisely the moment when shipowners and governments are trying to judge whether vessels can move safely. Advisory material for mariners has warned of severe GNSS/GPS spoofing, AIS anomalies and interference affecting navigation and communications reliability across the Strait of Hormuz and adjacent waters. It also notes that the risk is not limited to the transit corridor, with anchored, drifting or predictably operating vessels facing elevated exposure.

The consequences are visible in shipping patterns. Three crude tankers carrying a combined 6 million barrels exited the Strait of Hormuz with their trackers switched off, including two very large crude carriers carrying Iraqi Basrah crude and another tanker loaded with Upper Zakum crude from Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.’s Zirku terminal. The tactic underscores how operators are weighing the safety value of going dark against the risks of reduced visibility in crowded and contested waters.

Traffic remains far below normal. Before the conflict, the strait handled around 138 vessel transits a day by historical average, while monitoring in March showed only a handful of commercial cargo movements during 24-hour windows. One assessment showed just seven ships passed through the waterway in a day compared with about 140 normally. The sharp fall has turned the passage into both a military pressure point and an energy-market bottleneck.

The stakes extend well beyond the Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz carried nearly 20 million barrels a day of crude oil and oil products in 2025, equal to around a quarter of world seaborne oil trade, while nearly one-fifth of global LNG trade also depends on the route. Qatar and the UAE account for nearly all LNG flows from the Gulf through Hormuz, leaving Asian buyers particularly exposed when traffic is disrupted.

Insurance and operational costs are rising as the security picture darkens. War-risk cover remains available, but underwriting has tightened and premiums have increased significantly. Maritime guidance has urged crews to cross-check satellite positions against radar ranges, visual bearings, echo sounder trends and manual plotting, while treating unexpected VHF calls or routing instructions with caution.

The technical risk is compounded by legal and compliance uncertainty. Spoofed AIS positions can place a vessel near restricted areas, sanctioned ships or ports it never approached, forcing compliance teams to verify movements through multiple data streams. For shipmasters, the greater danger is immediate: electronic chart systems, bridge displays and shore-based tracking platforms may all show conflicting information in a confined waterway where safe separation depends on accurate positioning.

Diplomatic efforts have done little to restore confidence. Washington rejected Tehran’s conditions for ending hostilities, including demands linked to sanctions, frozen assets, the naval blockade and Iranian claims over the strait. Oil prices rose as the deadlock reinforced expectations that normal shipping through Hormuz would remain constrained.