The more-active December Brent contract traded near $96 a barrel after falling 1.7% in the previous session, while US West Texas Intermediate hovered around $90. Prices later edged higher after US President Donald Trump rejected reports that Washington was prepared to ease sanctions on Iran, keeping a geopolitical premium in the market.
JPMorgan analysts led by Natasha Kaneva estimated the 10-day average of Middle East crude exports at 17.5 million barrels a day, equivalent to 98% of pre-war levels. Total oil exports, including refined products, averaged 20.5 million barrels a day over the past five days, about 89% of 2025 levels.
The recovery has been aided by Saudi Arabia’s restoration of flows through its East-West Pipeline, a strategic route carrying crude from the kingdom’s eastern production areas to the Red Sea coast and bypassing Hormuz. Flows have returned to at least 3.5 million barrels a day, roughly half the pipeline’s rated capacity.
Saudi Aramco has also resumed tanker loadings from Yanbu after restarting the pipeline on September 22. The conduit had been shut after a drone attack earlier in the month disrupted shipments from the Red Sea terminal. Tankers were loading crude and refined products at Yanbu and nearby Al Muajjiz, while throughput was estimated at about 2 million to 2.65 million barrels a day.
The supply rebound is broader than the Saudi bypass route. Shipments through Hormuz have increased despite persistent security risks, helping restore volumes that were sharply curtailed after the war involving the United States, Israel and Iran began in late February. Preliminary Kpler data put September crude exports from key Middle East producers at 16.328 million barrels a day, the highest since the conflict began.
Differences between tracking estimates reflect methodology and coverage, including vessels operating without active transponders and differing definitions of regional exports. JPMorgan’s broader measure showed crude flows much closer to pre-war levels, while product shipments remained substantially constrained.
Exports of fuels such as diesel and petrol were running at about 3 million barrels a day, or 58% of pre-war levels, JPMorgan estimated. Reduced refinery capacity and restrictions elsewhere have kept product markets tighter than crude, even as additional barrels have reached international buyers.
Goldman Sachs analysts estimated oil exports from the Persian Gulf, including clandestine flows, at 23.3 million barrels a day over the past week, broadly matching the 2025 average. They assessed the global oil market as roughly balanced in September.
Supply relief has tempered a rally that has left crude sharply higher this year. Brent’s expiring November contract rose to about $103 on Wednesday, while the more-active December contract remained near $96. Brent was heading for a monthly gain of about 14%, while WTI was on course to rise roughly 4%.
Prices remain sensitive to diplomacy and military developments. Qatar has been pursuing shuttle diplomacy between Washington and Tehran, but Trump denied that he was prepared to offer sanctions relief and release frozen Iranian funds in exchange for steps on Iran’s nuclear programme.
The United States is also offering to loan as much as 40 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the final portion of its 172 million-barrel contribution to a coordinated international release agreed after the war began. US reserve holdings have fallen below 284 million barrels, their lowest level since 1982.
Traders are also watching possible US restrictions on diesel exports, which could alter refinery economics and global fuel availability. Washington has considered alternatives to an outright ban as it seeks to restrain domestic diesel prices.
Physical markets nevertheless remain tight. Freight costs have climbed as shipowners price in the danger of transiting the Gulf, while Brent’s futures curve continues to favour prompt barrels over later deliveries. That structure indicates buyers are paying a premium for immediate supply even as export volumes recover across the region.
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