Forecasters have issued an El Niño advisory after ocean and atmospheric indicators aligned over the past month, confirming that the coupled climate system has shifted into the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Sea surface temperatures have risen above normal across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, while winds and pressure patterns have begun to reflect the broader atmospheric response that gives El Niño its global reach.
The event is expected to strengthen through the Northern Hemisphere winter, with forecasters assigning a 63 per cent probability that it could become a very strong El Niño during November to January. Such an outcome would place it among the largest events recorded since systematic monitoring began in 1950, raising concern among governments, humanitarian agencies, farmers, insurers and energy planners.
El Niño occurs when warm waters build across the central and eastern Pacific near the equator, disrupting trade winds and shifting the jet streams that steer rainfall and storms. The phenomenon typically appears every two to seven years and can last nine to 12 months, though its impact depends on intensity, duration, timing and interaction with other climate patterns.
The latest weekly Niño-3.4 index, a key measure used to monitor the phenomenon, has reached about 0.7°C above average, while the eastern Niño-1+2 region has climbed above 2°C. Unusually warm water beneath the surface has provided a reservoir of heat, with parts of the central and eastern tropical Pacific recording subsurface anomalies exceeding 6°C above normal during the build-up phase.
The implications extend far beyond the Pacific. El Niño tends to raise global temperatures, alter monsoon behaviour, increase the risk of drought in some regions and bring heavier rainfall to others. Its arrival comes after the 2023-24 El Niño ranked among the five strongest on record and contributed to a run of exceptionally high global temperatures, including the record heat of 2024.
Scientists caution that no two El Niño events produce identical outcomes. Even very strong episodes do not guarantee the same impacts in every region, but they sharply tilt the odds towards familiar patterns. Strong events can amplify existing vulnerabilities where soils are dry, reservoirs are strained, food systems are fragile or flood defences are weak.
Australia faces a higher risk of heat, drought and bushfire conditions, while parts of western South America could see heavy rainfall and flooding. Northeastern Africa may confront abrupt shifts from drought to intense rains, heightening pressure on communities already exposed to food insecurity and displacement. The Middle East could receive some relief from dry conditions, though the distribution of rainfall may be uneven.
South Asia will be closely watched because El Niño has often been associated with hotter conditions and a greater risk of monsoon disruption. Any weakening or uneven distribution of rainfall would carry consequences for agriculture, power demand and food prices, particularly where irrigation and groundwater supplies are already under stress. Heatwaves may also become more severe where background temperatures remain above normal.
The storm picture is also mixed. El Niño often suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear, but it can favour stronger storm activity across the central and eastern Pacific. For island communities and coastal economies, that shift can move risk rather than reduce it.
Economic risks are likely to emerge through food, energy, insurance and public health channels. Heat can reduce labour productivity, strain power grids and lift cooling demand. Drought can curb hydropower, damage crops and raise livestock losses. Floods can disrupt transport, destroy homes and spread water-borne disease. Commodity markets will be sensitive to early signals from grain, rice, palm oil, sugar and soybean-producing regions.
Climate scientists stress that El Niño is a natural cycle, but its effects are unfolding in a warmer world shaped by greenhouse gas emissions. Warmer oceans and air can load the atmosphere with extra energy and moisture, increasing the potential for heavier rainfall, stronger heat extremes and marine heatwaves. Attribution of any single El Niño’s strength to climate change remains complex, yet the background warming makes its consequences more severe in many places.
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