By Dr. Gyan Pathak
Pre-election Interim Union Budget 2024-25 may not be expected to be different than one of the kinds that was tabled in 2019 by the PM Narendra Modi led government when the Union Government did to restrict itself only to passage of the vote on account, but went beyond to announce spectacular surprises to tempt various sections of the populace, including the workforce. Unemployment data was leaked 45 years high at 6.1 per cent, which is even higher at 7.4 per cent as per the CMIE data for January 27, 2024 on the basis of 30-day moving average, which was as high as 10.5 per cent in October 2023. Working class is more angry today compared to 2019, and is on the war path campaigning with the slogan “Defeat Modi, Save India”, on account of PM Modi’s policies that the joint front of Central Trade Unions has dubbed as ‘anti-labour’.
Since Modi government needs to pacify workers and the unemployed, it has been reported that the Interim Union Budget 2024-25 is to focus on welfare schemes for the workforce as a matter of appeasement, and there are indications that some announcement would be made for job generation. These would be in the form of revelation as to what would be in the full Union Budget for the year 2024-25, if the PM Modi’s government would return to power after Lok Sabha Election 2024 in May.
In the Interim Union Budget 2019-20, a significant revelation was made about a substantial pension program tailored for informal sector works earning less than Rs 15,000 which was said to benefit most of the nation’s labour force who operate within small-scale enterprises and frequently devoid of adequate job stability or any form of social security benefit. In the meantime, COVID-19 struck India, and the entire economy halted with lockdowns and containment measures. Labour market is yet to recover fully in the beginning of 2024, with unemployment rate hovering between 7.4 to 10.5 per cent.
It is therefore, according to the sources, Union Ministry of Finance has been toying with the idea of announcing a social security fund for the workforce in the unorganised sector as well as gig and platform workers in the Interim Union Budget 2024-25 to be tabled by the Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on February 1, which will be her first interim budget.
It is worth noting that one of the four controversial labour codes, the Social Security Code, 2020 already contains this proposal as a step toward universal social security for workers. Implementation of the four labour codes, against which the Central Trade Unions have been agitating since 2020, even with all India strike action, have been deferred. However, in case of PM Modi returning to power for the third term, these codes will be rolled out, as expected by CTUs, and as indicated by the Union Minister of Labour and Employment who said the Centre and the states are ready with their laws and discrepancies will be sorted out soon.
On the job generation front, Union Labour and Employment Minister Bhupender Yadav had said some time ago that country has seen massive job generation of 1.25 crore. It was in fact only a drop in the ocean when we look at the requirement of 2 crore new jobs every year, since that much number of people enter every year in the job market. Given the unemployment rate too high to cope with, though the Modi government goes on claiming on the basis of suspected government data that unemployment rate has declined, in the pre-election environment, Union Finance Minister is likely to announce several job generation programmes.
During the recent election campaigns in October-November state polls, PM Modi had said that India is making stupendous growth in every sector which is creating new job opportunities for the youth. He said, creation of employment opportunities for the youth is an important part of the nation building. BJP’s win after the election – especially in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan – has made some analysts to think that the Modi government seems to be in no need of announcing sops for the working class and the unemployed, especially after Ram Mandir Temple inauguration because ‘Ram’ can do the magic for them which employment generation and generating opportunity of quality jobs can’t do.
Nevertheless, working class has been demanding complete social security coverage in absence of employment guarantee with decent wages. Working class poverty in India is very high, and workers are forced to work on meagre wages to somehow survive. There is a rural employment guarantee programme MGNREGA, but there is no such programme for the urban poor. Though, the Union Government has been reducing the MGNREGA budget consecutively for the last three years, the Interim Union Budget 2024-25 may announce some assurances for all who want to work, even if PM Modi’s assurance to provide “decent works for all hands” made during 2014 election campaigns is still unfulfilled.
Despite stiff resistance by CTUs to PM Modi’s labour reform and decriminalization of certain key provisions in the labour law in favour of the corporates, Interim Budget 2024-25 may focus on ease of doing business camouflaging with measures for welfare of the workforce, such as social security fund, in a bid to create fresh hope among people that it would generate enough jobs for all. Extension of employment generation programmes and schemes beyond March 31, 2024, such as Atmanirbhar Bharat Rozgar Yojna, is also on the cards under which companies are provided incentives for job generation, and MGNREGA.
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has herself indicated four focus areas – welfare of youth, women, farmers, and the poor – for her interim budget. Hence, there could be some surprising announcement for working age people and their social security coverage. (IPA Service)
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