Saudi Arabia’s Housing Market Faces Affordability Challenges Amid Surging Prices

Saudi Arabia’s residential real estate market is experiencing significant affordability challenges as property prices continue to escalate, particularly in major urban centers like Riyadh. According to Knight Frank’s Summer 2024 Saudi Arabia Residential Market Review, the first half of 2024 saw a 38% surge in total real estate transactions across all asset classes, totaling over 106,700 deals. The total value of these transactions grew by 50% to SAR 127.3 billion during the same period. Residential transactions accounted for 61% of all real estate deals by value, with a 41% increase in the number of deals, reaching just under 91,860 sales. The value of residential transactions rose by 48% to SAR 77.6 billion.

Despite the robust activity, the market is grappling with deepening affordability issues. Knight Frank’s Winter 2023-24 report highlighted a 36% decline in the total value of mortgages issued, amounting to SAR 74.2 billion, as higher interest rates and escalating property prices deter potential buyers. Mortgage rates have risen from 3% to 5% over the past year, further eroding purchasing power, especially in the villa segment. This trend indicates that while transaction volumes are increasing, the financial burden on buyers is intensifying.

The government’s ambitious Vision 2030 plan aims to achieve a 70% homeownership rate by the end of the decade. However, the Financial Times reported that property prices in Riyadh have surged dramatically since the pandemic, with house prices rising by 81% and apartment prices by 56% since 2020. This rapid appreciation has made homeownership increasingly unattainable for many Saudis, particularly in Riyadh, where the current homeownership rate stands at 53.2%. To combat this, the National Housing Company has initiated projects to construct over 30,000 housing units, and state-subsidized bank loans are being offered to assist buyers. Despite these efforts, the influx of young Saudis to Riyadh for new job opportunities has intensified demand, further driving up prices.

Knight Frank’s research indicates that 77% of expatriates residing in Saudi Arabia are interested in purchasing homes within the Kingdom. However, 75% are willing to allocate under SAR 1.5 million for a property, with almost 40% unwilling to spend over SAR 750,000. This presents a significant challenge, as average prices in cities like Riyadh are approximately SAR 800,000 for a two-bedroom apartment and SAR 2.7 million for a three-bedroom villa. The disparity between expatriates’ budgets and prevailing market prices underscores the pressing need for more affordable housing options.

The affordability crisis is further exacerbated by the Kingdom’s substantial investments in mega-projects under the Vision 2030 initiative. Business Insider reported that Saudi Arabia has invested $1.3 trillion in real estate and infrastructure over the past eight years, with the Neom megacity project alone receiving $28.7 billion in funding. While these projects aim to modernize the economy and reduce dependence on oil revenue, they have also contributed to rising property values, making it more challenging for average citizens to enter the housing market.