Saudi’s Ambitious Reform Drive Pressures Public Finances

Saudi Arabia confronts mounting fiscal headwinds as oil revenues falter and large-scale investments under its Vision 2030 agenda intensify strain on the state’s budget, a fresh analysis by Fitch Ratings warns. Fiscal consolidation efforts are threatened by rising expenditures, volatile energy markets and valuation setbacks to flagship development projects.

Fitch anticipates the kingdom will record a fiscal deficit equivalent to 5.3 percent of GDP in 2025—more than double earlier forecasts of 2.3 percent—and projects a narrowing to 3.3 percent in 2026. That trajectory, the ratings agency argues, rests on fragile assumptions about revenue rebound and disciplined spending cuts. The downgrade in oil income, combined with persistent capital outlays, introduces high risk to Saudi’s consolidation plans.

The Public Investment Fund, corner-stone of Vision 2030, channels vast investment into infrastructure, technology, tourism and real estate. But it has also borne losses: in 2024, the PIF recognised an $8 billion writedown of its “gigaprojects,” including NEOM, reflecting cost overruns and market volatility. That impairment eroded some of the cushion these high-profile ventures were meant to provide.

Fitch treats PIF as a government-related entity, equating its credit profile with that of the sovereign given its central role in state economic strategy and the expectation of ongoing state support. However, Fitch cautions that heavy spending commitments in the pre-budget statement expose weaknesses in the consolidation path. The agency notes that worsening oil market dynamics and delays in translating megaprojects into stable returns heighten exposure.

Saudi Arabia’s finance ministry projects 2026 revenues of 1.14 trillion riyals against expenditures of 1.31 trillion, signalling an ambition to shrink deficit to 3.3 percent. The government anticipates revenue growth of 5.1 percent and spending reductions of 1.7 percent relative to 2025 projections. But achieving that will depend heavily on improved non-oil income and restrained capital outlays.

Crude price downturns have compounded pressure. With oil income constituting roughly 60 percent of Saudi’s state revenue, any softness in the energy market imposes acute stress. Analysts say the kingdom is caught in a bind: it must maintain investment momentum to stay on track with Vision 2030, yet it must also restrain spending lest debt and deficits spiral.

Investors and economists point to NEOM as a test case. Massive in scale and ambition, NEOM has come under scrutiny following the substantial writedown. Critics suggest that the project’s capacity to generate returns fast enough to justify its cost is increasingly in question. That, in turn, weakens one of the main pillars of the kingdom’s diversification rationale.

To mitigate risks, Saudi authorities are leaning on non-oil revenue sources, including taxes, fees and state levies, which remain robust. Public consumption and private sector growth also play supportive roles. But these revenue streams may not suffice to offset deep slippage in oil proceeds.